Posted on 09/04/2009 9:39:00 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Real Unemployment Rate Hits 16.8%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2009 08:22 -0500
As markets digest the worse, yet somehow better, than expected 9.7% unemployment, the real state of the labor market is much worse, as indicated by the U-6 number, which has hit a recent record of 16.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a reminder, the "U-6 represents total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers." In other words, in reality the U.S. labor market is likely about as bad as Spain in terms of undoctored jobless data.
And while pundits were touting the inflection point in June when U-6 hit 16.5% and started to retrace, the most recent monthly data has crashed yet another green shoot in the great propaganda game.
Ping!
Anyone have chart data or URL for U-6 back to 1948?
YEAH ,, using real numbers we’re still 1.7% below Spain!
I don't understand, did he lie to us?
( snicker chortle snicker chortle snicker )
http://www.nam.org/NewsFromtheNAM.aspx?DID={3F6BDD89-AA71-497D-9B33-21CA7BA944E2}
NAM says capacity at 66%, 40% of the manufacturing jobs should return by ......2014!??!
Should be able to get it at www.shadowstats.com ,, back to 1948? I’m pretty sure that the U3/U6 split occurred in the 1970’s so data prior to the 1970’s should be all U6.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.1 percent), whites (8.9 percent), and Hispanics (13.0 percent) rose in August. The jobless rates for adult women (7.6 percent), teenagers (25.5 percent), and blacks (15.1 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Is there a measure of unemployment that includes people who have given up looking for a job, but would take one given the opportunity?
Those unemployed less than 1 year are included in U6; those unemployed over 1 year were disappeared from the stats during Clinton years.
http://www.shadowstats.com/section/primers
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
Also, take a look at the aggregate weekly hours numbers. In August they dropped across the board but most notably they also dropped in auto/transportation sector, which was supposed to benefit from the “cash for clunkers” program. The aggregate weekly hours index, seasonally adjusted, fell from 52.5 to 51.3 for the auto sector. For comparison purposes, the index is set at 100 in 2002. This index is calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate hours by the corresponding 2002 annual average levels. In other words, the aggregate weekly hours worked in this industry is at about half of what it was in 2002. Is there really any sign of benefit as a result of the cash for clunkers? Or, did it just reduce inventory and pull from future sales without any real corresponding benefit to the underlying US auto industry?
Are you subscribed to SGS?
No. I’m curious as to why you ask.
No. I’m curious as to why you ask.
Just wondering. I was thinking about getting a subscription. I’ve been to the site a few times and have just recently started reading some of the open content. I’m not sure if the subscription content is worth the money, but this stuff really interests.
Sorry for the dup reply, not quite certain how I did that.
YET FEDERAL WORKERS got an effing raise while we have such deflation going on. Greedy lard ass affirmative action drones... Overpaid dummkopfs
Our FEDS and certain state and county workers are our very own nomenklatura. That was the ruling class and “connected” class in USSR
Nomenklatura - Wikipedia,
The nomenklatura were a small, elite subset of the general population in the Soviet Union and other Eastern Bloc countries who held various key ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomenklatura
.I’m not sure if the subscription content is worth the money, but this stuff really interests.>
Absolutely.
I began reading the open content during one of my unplanned ‘vacations’. I’m an independent consultant in IT in central NJ, & essentially I’ve been my own very small business. On a small scale, I get to see employment, taxes, etc from both sides - employer and employee. The info on SGS jibes with my personal experiences re inflation, and employment - gvt stats have not.
When I have compared my experiences with others with small businesses (less than 12 employees), they say the same as SGS.
You guys might find this book interesting: “Data Fudging 101: The History of U.S. Government Statistics Manipulation”. It covers the systemic bipartisan debasement of unemployment, inflation, and GDP calculations over the decades.
http://madconomist.com/data-fudging-101-the-history-of-us-government-statistics-manipulation
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