Posted on 08/31/2009 4:54:34 PM PDT by Scanian
Yes, it's way too early to make any predictions, but then, pollsters and pundits wouldn't have anything to write about which means they'd be out of a job for a year or so.
Actually, the value of predictions today is relevant to the current political debate over health care. Leading analysts who gauge the mood of the public on a month to month, even week to week basis, see outliers that may - or may not - be indicative of trends.
Trends represent long term outlooks rather than the "snapshot" that polls generally give us. Get enough snapshots of how people are thinking, and you can trace how people are feeling about an issue on a graph. That's the essence of strategic polling and politicians - even this far out from the 2010 election - ignore the information at their own peril.
So when several of the best analysts in the industry examine the trendlines, as well as the 50-60 congressional districts where vulnerable members from both parties are fighting to remain in office, they put two and two together and come up with scenarios for the election based on science, their own experience, and hunches born out of their insights gleaned over many years of watching politics.
What these pollsters are seeing does not bode well for the Democrats as explained by Josh Kraushaar of Politico:
After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.
Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House - not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.
Nate Silver, an unconventional but deadly accurate pollster who runs the must read site 538.com - and a Democratic consultant - managed to scare the beejeebees out of liberals at the recently concluded Netroots convention:
The experts said there was no hope in 1993 either ...
Are the same experts who are “surprised” by the “unexpected” rise or fall of the unemployment rate, or the global temperature, or the number of months left before Iran gets a nuclear bomb, etc.?
The “experts” are, by definition, behind the curve.
They haven’t even gotten Cap and Tax and Amnesty yet.
Zer0 promised another big Amnesty push for 2010 (against the “demagogues”) when he was in Mexico about three weeks ago, and said the legislation is already being written.
More good news, I think my personal deep-funk factor may be lifting a little.
The democrats won’t lose control of the house, simply because they will cheat.
Lets hope we get some good non party people elected.
>>>> More good news, I think my personal deep-funk factor may be lifting a little. <<<<<
If Pansy Graham and McQueeg are the lead “bipartisan support” for Amnesty; and Pansy throws another little Nancy Boy temper tantrum at the Senate podium; and then Zer0 gets all “wee wee’d up” and starts insulting the American people....
Well, it could get very entertaining.
That can help them in close elections...the trick is going to be to win as big as possible so that any Dhimmi election fraud will stick out like a sore thumb.
If we see the Iranian mullahs consulting with Axlerod on how to fix elections, we’re in trouble.
I hate to be the one that has to bring you the bad news, but 2008 was last year. The “majority of FReepers” are probably focussed on the 2009 and 2010 elections.
The problem with pork politics. While most people despise congress, they think their own congressman is okie dokie.
WHO THE HELL ARE THE EXPERTS!
Of course they are but blowing off predictions made by professional analyst for no other reason than you don’t like what they predict is a little on the immature and unrealistic side. It’s far better to view their predictions as likely being well founded and doing what you can to improve conditions for the GOP in your state and congressional district.
How dare you burst the bubble?
All this time I thought our next POTUS would be Duncan Hunter.
I love FR, but one needs to (as Jefferson alluded to) “temper their animal passions”.
BTW, That does not make me a “moderate”. I am a logical empiricist by training and temperament.
Who knows?
The Republicans have a hell of a chance in ‘10.
If they are EVER given a chance to govern again—a big IF, since Hussein’s Voter Fraud Machine IS significant—they better govern conservatively.
So the actual chances are more like between 67 and 75 percent. :)
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