Posted on 08/28/2009 9:45:03 AM PDT by tricky_k_1972
Sun's Cycle Alters Earth's Climate By SPACE.com Staff posted: 27 August 2009 02:08 pm ET
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Weather patterns across the globe are partly affected by connections between the 11-year solar cycle of activity, Earth's stratosphere and the tropical Pacific Ocean, a new study finds.
The study could help scientists get an edge on eventually predicting the intensity of certain climate phenomena, such as the Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall, years in advance.
The sun is the ultimate source of all the energy on Earth; its rays heat the planet and drive the churning motions of its atmosphere.
The amount of energy the sun puts out varies over an 11-year cycle (this cycle also governs the appearance of sunspots on the sun's surface as well as radiation storms that can knock out satellites), but that cycle changes the total amount of energy reaching Earth by only about 0.1 percent. A conundrum for meteorologists was explaining whether and how such a small variation could drive major changes in weather patterns on Earth.
Earth-space connection
An international team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used more than a century of weather observations and three powerful computer models to tackle this question.
The answer, the new study finds, has to do with the Sun's impact on two seemingly unrelated regions: water in the tropical Pacific Ocean and air in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that runs from around 6 miles (10 km) above Earth's surface to about 31 miles (50 km).
The study found that chemicals in the stratosphere and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean respond during solar maximum in a way that amplifies the sun's influence on some aspects of air movement. This can intensify winds and rainfall, change sea surface temperatures and cloud cover over certain tropical and subtropical regions, and ultimately influence global weather.
"The sun, the stratosphere, and the oceans are connected in ways that can influence events such as winter rainfall in North America," said lead author of the study, Gerald Meehl of NCAR. "Understanding the role of the solar cycle can provide added insight as scientists work toward predicting regional weather patterns for the next couple of decades."
The findings are detailed in the Aug. 28 issue of the journal Science.
How it happens
The changes occur like this: The slight increase in solar energy during the peak production of sunspots is absorbed by stratospheric ozone, warming the air in the stratosphere over the tropics, where sunlight is most intense. The additional energy also stimulates the production of additional ozone there that absorbs even more solar energy.
Since the stratosphere warms unevenly, with the most pronounced warming occurring nearer the equator, stratospheric winds are altered and, through a chain of interconnected processes, end up strengthening tropical precipitation.
At the same time, the increased sunlight at solar maximum a peak of sunspot and solar storm activity we're currently headed toward causes a slight warming of ocean surface waters across the subtropical Pacific, where sun-blocking clouds are normally scarce. That small amount of extra heat leads to more evaporation, putting additional water vapor into the atmosphere. The moisture is carried by trade winds to the normally rainy areas of the western tropical Pacific, fueling heavier rains and reinforcing the effects of the stratospheric mechanism.
These two processes reinforce each other and intensify the effect.
These stratospheric and ocean responses during solar maximum keep the equatorial eastern Pacific even cooler and drier than usual, producing conditions similar to a La Nina event. However, the cooling of about 1-2 degrees Fahrenheit is focused farther east than in a typical La Nina (the opposite sister effect of the warm-water El Nino), is only about half as strong, and is associated with different wind patterns in the stratosphere.
The solar cycle does not have as great an effect on Earth's climate as the El Nino cycle.
But the Indian monsoon, Pacific sea surface temperatures and precipitation, and other regional climate patterns are largely driven by rising and sinking air in Earth's tropics and subtropics. The new study could help scientists use solar-cycle predictions to estimate how that circulation, and the regional climate patterns related to it, might vary over the next decade or two.
Well, no. OK, it does account for about 200 terawatts, but there's also 30 terawatts geothermal plus a bit of nuke power that never came from the sun. The science staff must have hired some liberal arts major to do their writing maybe.
But if climate change is not our fault how will the liberals guilt us into following their agen.....oh...I see what you did there! ;-)
Re the headline:
I learned this in grade school in a one rrom school in rural Wisconsin between 1947 and 1952.
Perhaps not all the fancy words and explanaitons, but the same data as the headline.
Global warming or Global cooling cannot be controlled by man- even tho the Environazis think they are in charge.
maybe if enough son’s peddled really fast in the right direct... oh never mind !!! lol
L.O.L.
Must be a right-wing nut. Would someone from the NSF please inform these space.com rednecks that human greed alone alters the weather.
Send Algore by rocket to fix it. Immediately!
“this yellow orb in the sky affects our climate.”
“Can’t we just turn it off during daylight hours? Seems like a waste to leave it on all the time!” Al Gore
>>a bit of nuke power that never came from the sun
Well, actually all of the elements that feed that power originally did come from either this sun or the one before it, as massive atoms need a star to nova to create them.
Arguments as well at www.solarcycle24.com - both pro and con. Neither site buys the entire Man-released CO2 = global warming claptrap either, but the real cause of the last 250 years of global warming remains unknown right now.
Our little sun may have a bit of heavy elements --well make that ionized nuclei in the plasma-- but but like our heavy stuff they all came in from the neighbors. Of course, way back when the package arrived the earth and all the other planets were just a big 'sun ring' so in that sense I guess everyone's right but me ]-(
.
“The solar cycle does not have as great an effect on Earth’s climate as the El Nino cycle.”
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I am very skeptical of their interpretation here, though I will have to read the journal article. I would rather that they had used the phrase “on Earth’s short to medium term weather” instead.
I believe that ALL the climate is driven by Solar effects, and that even the Ocean Circulation patterns that give rise to the Nino/Nina events are akin to resonances in a complex system of driven, coupled harmonic oscillators.
This causes climate change.
It DOES??
Are they SURE?
Who knew!
Golly!
I wonder just HOW all that SUN heat manages to PENETRATE the Earth's crust to MELT rock and create VOLCANOES!!
The George Carlin bit comes immediately to mind: “That’s near-fetched, Jim!”
Small fluctuations in solar activity, large influence on the climate
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres | Aug 27, 2009 | Unknown
Posted on 08/27/2009 11:55:39 AM PDT by decimon
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2325921/posts
...but pinging this one also, regardless.
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May be but I'm sure you've seen the sun spot and "global" temperature graphs which shows a passable correlation between the two, no? And why is it the last few articles posted here completely ignore solar wind? You know that stuff that apparently waxes and wanes with the sun spots? Until recently articles were taking a hard look at the attack on our magnetic shield by the sun's variation in solar wind bombardment. I don't get it...
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