House Race Rankings (15 most vulnerable)

National Journal ^ | July 30, 2009 | Tim Sahd

[Clintonfatigued]

The Hotline's Tim Sahd assesses which House seats are most likely to switch party control in 2010.

[JLS]

but the rest I didn't automatically consider the open seats or special election as Republican like you did.

Well they are seats currently occupied by a GOP member of the House. That means the GOP has to defend them or capture other seats to gain seats. In addition the "special election seat" was last occupied by a member of the GOP. So again the GOP must win that one or the GOP caucus shrinks by one seat.

[airborne]

Just explaining how I came to my (inaccurate) numbers.

[NTHockey]

>>Top 15 -
2 Republicans
10 Democrats
2 open seats
1 special election>

And notice that most of the PUBs candidates are “moderates”. They still haven’t learned. Glad to see Castle on that list. Personally, I don’t think he has a chance at the Senate seat and his reelection is getting slimmer by the day. His one town hall did more damage than even he realizes.

[BillyBoy]

I think the ratings here are pretty accurate. A lot of the most vulnerable congressmen are first term RATs elected in districts that usually vote Republican by comfortable margins, and the rankings here reflect that. Good to see that most of the vulnerable seats are Dem held, although the first four on the list are all currently GOP held.

Cao is undoubtedly the one the RATs are going to be gunning for the most. Seeing a Republican win a majority black dtsrict that hasn't voted GOP was in the 1880s was one of those once-in-a-lifetime things like Reagan's 49-state landslide. I'm not ready to write his political tombstone yet though. It's possible the Dems could destroy each other in a huge messy primary (they will go all out since whoever wins in the primary is “guranteed” the seat in November) and Cao is saved by a huge GOP turnout at the top of the ticket in November. It would be a massive upset just like his ‘08 victory though.

I see Obama clone Dan Seals is trying to make a third attempt at winning Kirk's district after his 0-2 losing streak. With Kirk out of the picture, third time's the charm, eh? I hope the RATs nominate this guy again (he has some credible RAT politicians who entered the race hoping for the nomination though). Seals could be our very own Myrth York and give us an opening to make it possible for someone to the right of Kirk to get elected in that seat. Seriously, this guy Seals doesn't even live in the district and apparently has done nothing since 2006 besides continually run for office. Seals got 47% in 2008, and lest anyone think that's impressive, Obama got 61% in the same district (and they ran on identical platforms). Seals just ain't selling IMO.

I'm still trying to figure out how Tom Perriello defeated Virgil Goode, since Goode himself has only won that district as a RAT a decade ago by being a total DINO who voted like a Republican on all the major issues. It is a very conservative leaning district, even more so than party registration would suggestion.

Speaking of TN, I looked up the TN congressional district's and the Nashville based seat only has PVI rating of +3 Dem.(compared to the Memphis based seat which is overwhelmingly Dem with a rating of +23 for the RATs) I guess the city of Nashville may be one party RAT but there's significant GOP support in the Nashville suburbs. This looks like another district that is theoretically “winnable” for the GOP with the right candidate and a weak Dem, but will never happen because the GOP writes it off every year. (Kinda like how the GOP almost won Lane Evan's seat a couple of election cycles back, taking in 48% — and the Dems scrambled to make it more RAT for the 2002 redistrcitng by adding liberal university towns — but they will only managed to get a 5% advantage in party voters) I think that's an example why we're in the minority. The RATs manage to make it hell for Republicans in districts that favor our guys by double-digit margins, but a bunch of districts that are the RATs only have 3-5% margin of support have become “safe RAT” with entrenched incumbents.

[Norman Bates]

I notice they didn’t list Tim Walberg’s old Michigan seat. Is that because he’s running again? I would like to know our chances there if anyone has any thoughts.

[Norman Bates]

I disagree about Reichert. If they couldn’t beat him in ‘06 or ‘08, they won’t beat him next year.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Goode shot himself in the foot with his reelection efforts, going after Perriello in a way that many in the district thought was below the belt, it was really a shame. Combine that with a higher turnout in the moonbat university areas of the district, and you got the result we ended up with.

Nashville’s district was made more Republican by including heavily trending GOP Western Wilson County (and the last time, the Republican candidate carried that area over Cooper). This was done partly to help out Bart Gordon in the adjacent 6th, who is now clearly in a GOP district. Nashville, sadly, does not really have an organized Republican party (I couldn’t tell you squat about the party here, that’s how non-existent it is).

A lot of Republicans chose to play footsie with the Democrats and keep them from going too moonbat, but frankly, we haven’t had a non-liberal Mayor, for example, since Beverly Briley (1963-75), who actually endorsed Nixon. We’ve got only one GOP figure from this county in the legislature, who often is in the leadership, Beth Harwell (who was the designated candidate to be Speaker Pro Tempore). Harwell has passed up opportunities to run for higher office (including Mayor and Governor), but she represents one of the wealthiest districts in the state and would be classified as a Country-Clubber borderline RINO type.

It will be interesting to see if the GOP attempts to do something about the 9D-1R breakdown for the legislature in this county (when it ought to be 6D-4R). We’ve not had 2 Republicans elected since 1990, with one being the House Minority Leader. He and Harwell were lumped into the same district to create a hyper-GOP district and he chose to retire. The last time we had more than 2 was probably in the 19th century. My Councilman, one of only a handful of Republicans on our 40-member Metro (City) Council, representing a poor/lower class multiracial district, may try to run for the House, but I think he may wait until the lines are redrawn in ‘12 (the seat he has in mind is not my district, but an adjacent one of similar demographics wedged in between mine and Harwell’s upper-class area). But, yes, our farm team for higher office is very sparse. Were my health not so subpar, the Council seat the man occupies I might’ve run for, and I was asked to by (or discussed it with) the previous incumbent (who was a former classmate).

[fieldmarshaldj]

They failed to mention a lot of vulnerable Democrats. If Walberg can raise the $$, he should have an even shot. A lot of RINOs were responsible for his loss (similar to Bill Sali’s situation in ID-1).

[Clintonfatigued]

I think that Walberg has a shot, but he has to do better with fundraising.

[Clintonfatigued]

“I disagree about Reichert. If they couldn’t beat him in ‘06 or ‘08, they won’t beat him next year.”

You’re right about Sheriff Reichert, if he chooses to run again. I don’t rule out his challenging Patty Murray, and hope that he does.

[Impy]

They can’t resist making the top 4 all GOP-held seats.

Cao number 1 is a give in. He probably won’t get to 40%. Though of course I hope he does.

I would not place Reichart in the top 15. (Or call NY-23 “dem leaning” or Il-10 “heavily dem” as a different NJ article did).)

The rest of list appears accurate. Though not necessarily the order.

Several other rats could be on the list. The Walberg seat in MI. SHEA-PORTER in NH

[Clintonfatigued]

If Reichert runs against Patty Murray, the district will be in the top 15, though Republicans can hold it if they have a good nominee.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Cao is the underdog, no doubt. But he has a reasonable shot. List may be 100 seats long by next fall.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Again, on Cao ... the runoff general is DEC 2010 (yes?) which would have a low turnout ... and incumbency is still an advantage. 2012: he has a serious serious problem. But re-districting is the wildcard.

[Impy]

No GE runoff. Federal elections in LA now have normal party primaries and normal federal GEs. The jungle primary remains only for state offices.

Cao’s first election was a delayed regular general election caused by Hurricane Gustav occurring in September when the primary was supposed to be.

If the primary will be in September next year that doesn’t give the rats much time to unite.

[TennTuxedo]

Gordon is in big big trouble. Rutherford and Sumner Counties are becoming deeper Republican than ever before.

[fieldmarshaldj]

He’s in trouble on paper, but we still have no first-tier candidates stepping up. You can’t beat him with second or third tier challengers with no money. He’s also a House Committee Chairman (Science & Technology), and they can raise beaucoup $$. He’s not received less than 62% of the vote since 1998, and last November (for the first time in his Congressional career), he had NO GOP opponent, just an Independent, and he won 74-26%.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Alan Grayson won in a fluke against Ric Keller, some corruption rumors, lots of his own money, and a big Obama turnout elected him. He has voted as a Pelosi democrat not a blue dog. The Republican Speaker of the Assembly, Larry Cretul, just announced he is not a candidate. I am sure some ambitious and likely conservative Republican will run against him.

[fieldmarshaldj]

No one has apparently officially declared in FL-8, though Rich Crotty, the Orange County Mayor, is apparently leaning towards doing so (although whether he’s the strongest candidate, I don’t know).

[CPT Clay]

I’d like to see their top 100.