Cao is undoubtedly the one the RATs are going to be gunning for the most. Seeing a Republican win a majority black dtsrict that hasn't voted GOP was in the 1880s was one of those once-in-a-lifetime things like Reagan's 49-state landslide. I'm not ready to write his political tombstone yet though. It's possible the Dems could destroy each other in a huge messy primary (they will go all out since whoever wins in the primary is “guranteed” the seat in November) and Cao is saved by a huge GOP turnout at the top of the ticket in November. It would be a massive upset just like his ‘08 victory though.
I see Obama clone Dan Seals is trying to make a third attempt at winning Kirk's district after his 0-2 losing streak. With Kirk out of the picture, third time's the charm, eh? I hope the RATs nominate this guy again (he has some credible RAT politicians who entered the race hoping for the nomination though). Seals could be our very own Myrth York and give us an opening to make it possible for someone to the right of Kirk to get elected in that seat. Seriously, this guy Seals doesn't even live in the district and apparently has done nothing since 2006 besides continually run for office. Seals got 47% in 2008, and lest anyone think that's impressive, Obama got 61% in the same district (and they ran on identical platforms). Seals just ain't selling IMO.
I'm still trying to figure out how Tom Perriello defeated Virgil Goode, since Goode himself has only won that district as a RAT a decade ago by being a total DINO who voted like a Republican on all the major issues. It is a very conservative leaning district, even more so than party registration would suggestion.
Speaking of TN, I looked up the TN congressional district's and the Nashville based seat only has PVI rating of +3 Dem.(compared to the Memphis based seat which is overwhelmingly Dem with a rating of +23 for the RATs) I guess the city of Nashville may be one party RAT but there's significant GOP support in the Nashville suburbs. This looks like another district that is theoretically “winnable” for the GOP with the right candidate and a weak Dem, but will never happen because the GOP writes it off every year. (Kinda like how the GOP almost won Lane Evan's seat a couple of election cycles back, taking in 48% — and the Dems scrambled to make it more RAT for the 2002 redistrcitng by adding liberal university towns — but they will only managed to get a 5% advantage in party voters) I think that's an example why we're in the minority. The RATs manage to make it hell for Republicans in districts that favor our guys by double-digit margins, but a bunch of districts that are the RATs only have 3-5% margin of support have become “safe RAT” with entrenched incumbents.
Goode shot himself in the foot with his reelection efforts, going after Perriello in a way that many in the district thought was below the belt, it was really a shame. Combine that with a higher turnout in the moonbat university areas of the district, and you got the result we ended up with.
Nashville’s district was made more Republican by including heavily trending GOP Western Wilson County (and the last time, the Republican candidate carried that area over Cooper). This was done partly to help out Bart Gordon in the adjacent 6th, who is now clearly in a GOP district. Nashville, sadly, does not really have an organized Republican party (I couldn’t tell you squat about the party here, that’s how non-existent it is).
A lot of Republicans chose to play footsie with the Democrats and keep them from going too moonbat, but frankly, we haven’t had a non-liberal Mayor, for example, since Beverly Briley (1963-75), who actually endorsed Nixon. We’ve got only one GOP figure from this county in the legislature, who often is in the leadership, Beth Harwell (who was the designated candidate to be Speaker Pro Tempore). Harwell has passed up opportunities to run for higher office (including Mayor and Governor), but she represents one of the wealthiest districts in the state and would be classified as a Country-Clubber borderline RINO type.
It will be interesting to see if the GOP attempts to do something about the 9D-1R breakdown for the legislature in this county (when it ought to be 6D-4R). We’ve not had 2 Republicans elected since 1990, with one being the House Minority Leader. He and Harwell were lumped into the same district to create a hyper-GOP district and he chose to retire. The last time we had more than 2 was probably in the 19th century. My Councilman, one of only a handful of Republicans on our 40-member Metro (City) Council, representing a poor/lower class multiracial district, may try to run for the House, but I think he may wait until the lines are redrawn in ‘12 (the seat he has in mind is not my district, but an adjacent one of similar demographics wedged in between mine and Harwell’s upper-class area). But, yes, our farm team for higher office is very sparse. Were my health not so subpar, the Council seat the man occupies I might’ve run for, and I was asked to by (or discussed it with) the previous incumbent (who was a former classmate).