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2012 Prospects: The Barracuda (Pretty good analysis)
Political Betting ^ | July 8, 2009

Posted on 07/08/2009 7:43:15 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

There has been much talk over Sarah Palin’s shock announcement that she is resigning from her post as Governor of Alaska before the end of the first term. The primary questions in much of the coverage have been “What the hell is she up to?” and “Why on Earth does this help her?”

I am convinced the answers are quite straight forward: Sarah Palin has decided to run for the 2012 Republican nomination for the President of the United States, and to do this she needs to get out of Alaska.

Ever since she was picked as John McCain’s Vice-Presidential candidate last year, Governor Palin’s advisers have split into two groups: those who felt she must not lose focus on her political standing in her home state, and those who believe she should quickly leave Juneau behind her and step up to the national stage. The tussle between them has left her operation in a mess since the election.

The more ambitious second group have now won out, no doubt prompted by last week’s highly critical Vanity Fair piece. (The less than professional resignation speech heavily indicated it had been prepared at short notice.) The piece made many in the Palin camp feel she cannot afford to focus on governing until 2016 while her reputation continues to be trashed in the national media. Her comments in her resignation speech about “plodding along” also seemed to confirm rumours about frustration with her current role.

The Governor will now take part in the ridiculous American charade of running for office while denying doing so – something that contributed to the seeming vacuity of her speech. Her facebook notes talk of a “higher calling” and “forging progress” as part of a movement was couched in the usual language of such a tradition.

Those who claim she can prepare a run for federal office while remaining in her post fail to appreciate a couple of things about her state. The first is that the time zone is four hours behind DC and the rest of the East coast, meaning that early morning news can break and be watched by millions of Americans before the Governor and her staff have even woken up in the morning, making damage control extremely difficult.

The second is that Alaskans tend to be more internally-focused than most, and look very poorly on their politicians continually cavorting off to the lower 48. It takes twelve hours to fly from D.C. to Anchorage, and she could take a heavy hit in the polls if she was caught out of state on campaign activity causing her to be slow to respond to an event breaking back home.

Such travel is essential if she is going to compete for the 2012 nomination. One of Governor Palin’s serious weaknesses is a lack allies on the national stage. The best way for her to amend this is by raising money for Republican candidates across the country.

This will most likely be done through SarahPAC, the political action committee – a necessary requirement to run for federal office – that was unveiled in January. Palin is still the biggest draw for crowds in the GOP and there will be many candidates out there who would promise a lot in return for her support.

She will also start raising money for herself, as Mitt Romney’s wealth will give him a considerable advantage. Expect Palin to start giving prominent speeches on conservative principles as a way to start raking in the cash. She also needs to get more involved in D.C.-based think tanks, as a way to get conservative media intellectuals back on her side.

So, providing she makes the most of her freed-up schedule, what do we think of Sarah’s prospects? Punters should be careful not to be frightened off by the rumours of ethics complaints, after the Governor was exonerated on all 15 local charges, and with the FBI confirming there is no federal investigation underway.

Palin has been helped considerably by the revelations about Mark Sanford “hiking the Appalachian trail” (to coin a euphemism), as they fish in similar pools of voters. She should now have free reign to scoop up the Republicans who are both fiscally and socially conservative. In a split field, Palin will also benefit the most from second preferences by the time Super Tuesday rolls round, having the widest approval cover among identified Republicans. The lack of a candidate in the race with clear crossover appeal, such as McCain in 2008, will also strengthen her hand in the demographics of the primary electorate.

My overall feeling remains that, while I am extremely sceptical of her chances in the general, she has considerably better prospects than some of the longer odds available for the nomination. These will undoubtedly shorten when she formally announces.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2012; palin; palin2012; palinresignation; romney; sarah; sarahpalin; waronsarah
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To: Ocarterma
At least you're thinking about the future.

Given what's happened so far, though, and the amount of remote-controlled damage Mittens has done Sarah Palin, I don't think we'll see them on the same platform.

Huckabee's poison -- pure opportunist, he's a Pubblie Slick Willie. I don't care how many times, as I've been saying, that he jumps up in the Jesus tent.

Remember, Huck was 100% OBL Kool-Aid-dispensing back in 2003 as governor in Arkansas, when he got LULAC to bring their national convention to Little Rock. He shared a podium with chicken magnate Tyson (who has brought many tens of thousands of illegal aliens into the state to work his poultry plants) and ex-President Clinton. You want a guy like Huck near the apex of the GOP?

21 posted on 07/08/2009 10:27:27 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: lentulusgracchus

Palin is an outside the box thinker.

If he wins his contest in Florida and takes the seat, Palin/Rubio.

You heard it here first. I’m feeling instinctively positive about that choice. I saw “the speech” in the well of the Florida House.

So has Palin.

Romney would be a dead weight around her neck. Great Treasury Secretary, though.

Best,

Chris


22 posted on 07/08/2009 10:38:45 PM PDT by section9 (Major Motoko Kusanagi says, "Jesus is Coming. Everybody look busy...")
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To: TexasNative2000; Ocarterma
The 2012 ticket will be Palin/Cornyn.

Cornyn doesn't have "gravitas", he has sponsors in business. He's the new Phil Gramm.

Palin would do better with people like Fred and Dick Lugar in her corner -- there's your international expertise and "gravitas". I'd vote for Fred for President in a heartbeat. He didn't do well at all in 2007, started waaaay too late because of TV contracts and liabilities. But even one of the rivals' backers said that, looking up at Fred on a podium giving a speech, you could see that he was the President of the United States already. He had what it takes, the political guy recognized it, and Sarah needs that in her corner. Or she needs to be in his.

Dick Lugar, Dan and Marilyn Quayle, Fred and Sarah. Now that's the beginnings of a Republican conservative juggernaut.

23 posted on 07/08/2009 10:44:13 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: section9

I don’t know anything about Rubio, honest. So I don’t vote either up or down on Rubio. But isn’t that the problem — like Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty, isn’t he just a little too new yet?


24 posted on 07/08/2009 10:46:20 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: lentulusgracchus

Truthfully, I’m no Huck expert-—I just know he talks too much—like Obie and his talk show cures insomnia. I’d like to see her paired with another solid conservative that shores up any perceived weaknesses-—maybe someone seasoned but not too old....what do you think of Palin-Gingrich? Palin-Pawlenty? Palin-JC Watts?


25 posted on 07/08/2009 10:51:03 PM PDT by Ocarterma (formerly Obushma: Because he's way past Bush---he's Carter now)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“......to do this she needs to get out of Alaska.”

-—Absolutely correct. Alaska is further from Washington DC than the continent of Africa. Campaigning has to start very early, and Sarah has to raise a billion dollars, and simple logistics dictate that you can do neither while a sitting governor of a state as remote as Alaska:

http://www.stumpedagain.wordpress.com


26 posted on 07/08/2009 11:08:01 PM PDT by cookcounty (He who controls the Language controls the Debate.)
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To: lentulusgracchus
"I'd vote for Fred for President in a heartbeat. He didn't do well at all in 2007, started waaaay too late because of TV contracts and liabilities. "

Fred was my first choice in 2008, but as the campaign pressed forward, he gave off the impression that he didn't have enough energy to butter his breakfast toast. In today's climate, like it or not, electricity is essential to electability. And Sarah's got more lightning in her trigger finger than the country club Republicans have in the whole country.

Lugar? Gravitas? What he's got is more like Grave-itas. And he is not a fighter. He's what's wrong with the GOP: A nice, moderately conservative milquetoast who is very concerned not to upset the opposition.

27 posted on 07/08/2009 11:18:34 PM PDT by cookcounty (He who controls the Language controls the Debate.)
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To: Ocarterma

Hello all, glad to be here.

I don’t think there are any men that can save conservatives.

Sarah should stay away from D.C. and any Senate run. If you lay with dogs you will get fleas. I don’t think there is anyone in the Senate that isn’t a flea ridden dog. She would be better off going to towns and cities in an attempt to get consrvatives elected to city and state governemnt as well as to Congress as I believe taking state governments and the House should be the top priority for conservatives. This would give many people the chance to see her and would put her in the position as a conservative leader, not just another politician. Sarah Palin is about the only person I believe can be trusted in government. She is the only reson I voted in 2008.

While John Kasich would be a great pick for V.P. and would certainly lockup Ohio, I think Obama will have pissed off rust belt states so much they would probably go to Palin anyways.

Bush barely lost Wisconsin & Minnesota in 2004, and I think they are a great possibility for a pickoff. Michelle Bachmann uses language that is strikingly similar to Ronald Reagan. Minnesota & Wisconsin is 20 EV I think. She would make a great intellectual, philisophical attack dog.

Palin/Bachmann 2012


28 posted on 07/08/2009 11:50:15 PM PDT by TheArizona
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To: Ocarterma

Welcome to FR.


29 posted on 07/09/2009 12:28:05 AM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: TheArizona

Welcome to FR


30 posted on 07/09/2009 12:33:24 AM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: TheArizona

Welcome to you from another Arizonan. I have no hope for Minnesota at all. The Dems will steal anything close. The GOP no longer has the option of winning close elections.

They don’t play fair. They have the media and are totally corrupt. Don’t forget Washington, South Dakota, Minnesota, and that Nappy won her first one here like that, counting new votes that kept getting found on the reservations long after election day.


31 posted on 07/09/2009 12:39:06 AM PDT by Luke21
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Romney will the GOP the aura of gay marriage,
socialized medicine, flip-flopping, polygamy,
and whining backstabbing.


32 posted on 07/09/2009 12:43:47 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Those who go below the surface do so at their peril" - Oscar Wilde)
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To: Ocarterma
I’d like to see her paired with another solid conservative that shores up any perceived weaknesses-—maybe someone seasoned but not too old....what do you think of Palin-Gingrich? Palin-Pawlenty? Palin-JC Watts?

Hey, thanks for signing up just to ask those questions.

Sorry, at this time, I really can't see Mrs. Palin at the top of the GOP ticket, irrespective of the veep pick.

I confess ignorance of Pawlenty.

Gingrich lost me with his stance on Global Warming. (Although one helpful FReeper recently did try to instruct me on the whole Hegelian Dialectic theory of why Mr. Newt was doing this)

Which brings me to JC ("What color is the presidental candidate?")Watts. I was sincerely disappointed during the election when he said that he considered voting for Obams He did explain himself to Hannity, but, I just don't think that a principled conservative would actually say that he seriously considered voting FOR Zero. He is an exceptional and inspiring speaker, (I met him several years ago) but a politician, after all. I have a great story stemming from that meeting, but I don't know you that well to tell it to you.

So, that's it. Welcome back to FR.

33 posted on 07/09/2009 2:52:51 AM PDT by MaggieCarta (We're all Detroiters now.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Eska

Eska - See post #1


34 posted on 07/09/2009 2:58:48 AM PDT by jla
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To: Irish Eyes

Thanks! I’ve actualy been on FR for about 8 monts or so but I used to use “Obushma” as my screen name but I’ve stopped holding Bush responsible for Obama’s election and now I hold Jimmy Carter responsible.


35 posted on 07/09/2009 3:32:45 AM PDT by Ocarterma (formerly Obushma: Because he's way past Bush---he's Carter now)
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To: Luke21

This is why Palin needs to travel the country.

1. Express conservative values and ideas directly to people and sieze the role of the Conservative/Republican standard bearer.

2. While doing that she can help get like minded conservatives elected to the House and important state level positions such as state legislators and Secretary of State.

Palin/Bachmann 2012


36 posted on 07/09/2009 5:33:31 AM PDT by TheArizona
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To: ak267

in fact, i have thought one reason why the beltway GOP crowd is so dismissive of her is that they have feeling 0bama will be quite vulnerable in 2012 and they want Mitt or one of their own to be there to be elected president

if we are correct and these policies of 0bama’s are bad, the economy will still be in the toilet and and GOP nominee should win

in 1980, Reagan started far back in the polls for the general. First, we werent allowed to nominate him because he couldnt win, but we nominated him anyway. he started probably 15 points behind Carter but as people wearied of Carter, Reagan won the first of his 2 blow outs


37 posted on 07/09/2009 5:38:37 AM PDT by Piers-the-Ploughman (Just say no to circular firing squads.)
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To: gscc
I think she will run in 2012 and I think she will easily win the nomination....unless??? Huck and Romney selfishly hang on to the end, giving another McCain type a easy walk up the middle.

When she does win the nomination, my advice to Sarah is this....forget about going on Couric, Today etc etc etc, instead hold a weekly press conference, taking any and all questions. Sarah is very good on her feet taking questions. She should just be herself and answer each question as she sees it. If Couric wants to interview her, all she has to do is attend any of the press conferences.

38 posted on 07/09/2009 5:40:46 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge ( Yes I Love Sarah Palin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I would like to see the first feather Palin adorns her cap with be campaigning for Republicans in 2010. If she can be instrumental in shrinking/eliminating the Dem majority, it would demonstrate her effectiveness in winning a national debate.

The Dems need pounded mercilessly on unemployment, wasteful spending and the destruction of the free market.

At the rate the mushy middle is already abandoning Obama, the task is eminently doable.


39 posted on 07/09/2009 5:50:46 AM PDT by IamConservative (I'll keep my money. You keep the change.)
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To: IamConservative
I would like to see the first feather Palin adorns her cap with be campaigning for Republicans in 2010. If she can be instrumental in shrinking/eliminating the Dem majority, it would demonstrate her effectiveness in winning a national debate.

It actually would do three things:

1) Show signs of a "sea change", i.e., swing the momentum back away from the rampant socialist train wreck we're on. It's not enough to do the typical "squishy" Republican tactic of "the same as the Democrats, only not so much" (I'm looking at you, Romney).

2) Establish Palin as a legitimate force to be reckoned with, including having a fairly visible platform to "rehabilitate" her image. The fact is, I believe her current negatives are the highest they'll ever be; as she goes on the offensive, she'll be able to erase many false impressions and doubts. Of course there's a core subset that will always be opposed to her, but not enough to defeat her if she can address the ones who can change their minds.

3) Provide Palin with the "ground troops" she'll need to win primaries, and eventually, the general election. Individual candidates and state parties that gain because of her influence will be pretty much compelled to return the favor. Any candidate needs that organization (c.f. the failures of the Thompson and Hunter campaigns in 2008), especially in the primaries. With Romney as her prime competition, she'll need to match or exceed his organizing abilities. Even if someone else steps forward, preparing to take on Romney will still leave her with a solid organization to deal with other contenders.

40 posted on 07/09/2009 6:03:50 AM PDT by kevkrom
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