Obamunism = Epic Fail
Obummer's trajectory is outpacing that of Salvador Allende.
Posted on 07/08/2009 12:04:09 PM PDT by FromLori
Really, how hard is it to find a job? Was June's horrid numbers, in which 467,000 people lost their jobs compared to 345,000 in May, a one-time fluke? Or does it mean that all those Wall Street economists who believe the economic recovery is starting are dead wrong?
Not to scare you, but the situation is actually worse than it seems. Over the years, the government has changed the way it counts the unemployed. An example of this is the criticized Birth-Death Model which was added in 2000. The model is designed to account for the birth and death of businesses and the resultant lag in survey data. Unfortunately, the model doesn't work that well during economic contractions (like we have now) and consistently overstates the number of jobs being created each month.
John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics specializes in removing these questionable tweaks to the government's statistical data to better align current numbers with the methodology used to gather historical data. After reviewing the data, Williams believes that "the June jobs loss likely exceeded 700,000." David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff notes that the fall in the number of hours worked in June (to a record low of 33 per week) is equivalent to a loss of more than 800,000 jobs.
There are similar issues with the way the unemployment rate is measured. The headline rate only jumped from 9.4% to 9.5% because of a drop in the number of people in the workforce. The more inclusive "U-6" measure of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers, jumped from 16.4% to 16.5%. But even this doesn't adequately capture the situation on the ground: Back in the Clinton Administration, the definition of discouraged worker was changed to only include those that had given up looking for work because there were no
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Obamunism = Epic Fail
Obummer's trajectory is outpacing that of Salvador Allende.
The Democrats want a very large unemployment number early in Barry’s term...it’s going to allow them to push through even more big government.
And the media will cheer them on.
They are cheering on the Greatest Depression in the history of the world!
Now! Those are bad numbers and I see no flaw in the logic they used to arrive at them. Sounds like the approach to the TrainWreck is gaining speed.
Sorry, you used such abstract symbols as %, and made the problem worse by using them many times, coupled to explanatory verbiage.
As such, you have exceeded the intellectual ability of the vast majority of the congress and senate.
You’ll have to dumb it down to Katie Couric CBS level in order to fool the idiots into thinking they understand the trouble that we really are in.
Wow ... I figured maybe 13-14% but 20%? Holy crap.
It appears it is hunker down time.
There are some prospects for hope, watched a video just a few minutes ago of Governor Perry on PajamaTV concerning the state economy, the 10th Amendment legislation, and the Tea Parties. I know “Rick’s” past record, but he nailed this one at the first of the Tea Parties in San Antonio. I know he is running for re-election, but he is dead-on on this one. (and in Obozo’s face)
If Cap & Trade passes the Senate (doubt it will), this could get real interesting. The Obamanista’s plan to Tax the oil producing states to pay for the unemployement and chaos in the cities that voted for them.
Sovereignty issues will spark what it to come.
The Obamanista’s will literally run the train into the Abyss if not stopped. And then they will continue to nationalize businesses. (Oil, other manuf., healthcare) It must be STOPPED here and NOW. There is no other option.
From my observation point (As someone that is relatively busy) I concur with the assessment that the situation is getting very very bad.
I have never seen so many people I know un/under employed. People with “secure” jobs are worried, others have had pay and or hours cut 50%.
Construction is dead, the mall is scary quiet and I don’t know anyone that has bought a new car lately.
The good news is that there seems to be fewer illegal aliens in town lately.
From the link to original analysis:
“Annual Payroll Decline Deepened to 4.2%, Equal to 1958 Trough and Near 1949 Trough”
“SGS-Alternate Unemployment at 20.6%”
Hiring people at my place.
....and you can’t find a resturant in town that does not have a line out the door every night.
....and don’t go near the shopping district. Good Lord, the traffic is ridiculous, no parking spaces.
I don’t know... I know its there... I just don’t see it.
infoping
I don’t think there is a 20% unemploymenr rate. Maybe 11-13%. I clearly remember the late 70’s and it’s unemployment and we are not there...yet.
I believe there is a greater problem with underemployment that is not being reported. I know some college educated people that are working jobs that normally only require a HS education.
Socialism, the cause of AND the proscribed solution to most of our economic woes.
Typical Statist M.O.
a) institute socialism
b) watch things get worse
c) propose that more socialism is the answer
Repeat as necessary to achieve the proletariat dream. ;)
..OTOH, I know many folks who think a BA today isn't equal to a 40/50 year old HS diploma...
I’d also be interested in how (or if) laid-off workers who are stil being paid per severance packages are being counted. There are a huge number of people from the financial industry who fall into this category (including myself). I’m on full salary and medical coverage for close to two years, and am certainly not looking for a job because the terms of my severance package state that accepting permanent employment with benefits would terminate my severance benefits. Works great for me, since I was wanting to get out of the industry and into a different one anyway, and this gives me the time I need to do that. But if people like me aren’t being counted as “unemployed” because we’re not on the government unemployment rolls and we’re not job-seeking, the official numbers are missing a big chunk of people who have been affected by the economic downturn, including many highly paid workers, and this would seriously distort the picture. The vast majority of us will be re-entering the job market within a couple of years, competing with the officially unemployed group for available jobs.
I don’t know... I know its there... I just don’t see it.
These are indications that unemployment is not 100%.
That's may be true.
My niece just graduated with a accounting degree from a larger university, has a good grade point average and was in the top 10-15% of her class. She has been offered jobs but they are crap. For example: one job she would have to travel every week and would have to live out of her suitcase Monday through Thursday nearly 50 weeks out of the year auditinh hospitals in a 4 state region.
For now, she just went back to her old summer job at the "beverage cart" at the country club near D.C. $15.25 per hour, plus she makes $250-400 per night in tips on a Friday/Saturday and $150-175 per night during the week.
I think that we probably are there, but the reality hasn't sunk in just yet. The last few months the average job loss figure is in the 400K range. That is a ridiculous number for even 1 month. We are stringing them together.
In Pennsylvania they went nuts for around a week because approx. 21,000 unemployed had exhausted their benefits (after a couple of 3 month extensions). They panicked & granted them another 7 weeks, kicking the can down the road a short distance. Just wait until each state is looking at 40K to 60K dropping from the rolls each month.
Onward through the Greater Depression, past the Age of Insanity, to the Second Renaissance!
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