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H1N1 flu victim collapsed on way to hospital [Latest H1N1 updates downthread]
GuelphMercury.com ^ | June 24, 2009 | Raveena Aulakh

Posted on 06/24/2009 8:04:24 AM PDT by metmom

Within minutes, six-year-old Rubjit Thindal went from happily chatting in the back seat of the car to collapsing and dying in her father's arms.

"If we had known it was so serious, we would have called 911,'' Kuldip Thindal, Rubjit's distraught mother, said in Punjabi yesterday. "She just had a stomach ache -- she wasn't even crying.''

Rubjit was pronounced dead at hospital barely 24 hours after showing signs of a fever. Later, doctors told her parents she had the H1N1 influenza virus. She is believed to be the youngest person in Canada with the virus to have died.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.guelphmercury.com ...


TOPICS: Canada; Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: argentina; australia; blacklungs; blackplague; brazil; bronchitis; canada; cdc; cytokinestorm; fearmongering; flu; genesequence; h1n1; h1n1updates; health; hemorrhagiclungs; influenza; mexico; mutation; norway; pandemic; pneumonia; science; swineflu; tamiflu; ukraine; updates; vaccine; vitamind; worldwide
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To: DvdMom

Mexican swine flu victims were young, some healthy

Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:07pm EDT
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor
http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE55S6BS20090629

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Swine flu patients in Mexico were young and many were healthy before developing severe infections, doctors reported on Monday.

The first detailed studies of the outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza show the epidemic in Mexico resembled the early stages of other pandemics, and showed there is no way yet to predict who will become severely ill from the virus.

The World Health Organization has confirmed 70,893 cases in the new H1N1 swine flu pandemic, with 311 deaths. However, U.S. health officials last week said there were likely at least a million cases there alone. Iraq, Lithuania, Monaco and Nepal all confirmed their first cases on Monday.

Dr. Rogelio Perez-Padilla of the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Mexico City and colleagues studied 18 H1N1 cases in March and April, more than half of them aged 13 to 47.

Only eight had pre-existing medical conditions that might worsen their flu infection, they wrote — including high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma and sleep apnea. Seven died — all of multiple organ failure.

The doctors said 90 percent of the seriously ill patients were under 50 — in contrast to seasonal influenza, which causes mostly mild illness in people under the age of 65.

“Most of our patients were young to middle-aged and had previously been healthy,” they wrote in their report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“One contributing factor for death in our patients may have been delayed admission and delayed initiation of oseltamivir.”

Oseltamivir, sold by Roche AG under the brand name Tamiflu, can treat influenza, although Denmark reported the first case on Monday of swine flu resisting the drug’s effects.

“We did not find a factor that, before the onset of illness, predicted a worse outcome or death among our patients,” Perez-Padilla’s team wrote.

HEALTHCARE WORKERS

In addition, 22 of 190 healthcare workers who came close to the patients themselves got flu-like illness but were treated with Tamiflu and none got seriously ill.

Dr. Stefano Bertozzi of the National Institute of Public Health in Mexico and colleagues studied the cases of 2,155 people who developed severe pneumonia from H1N1 infection in March and April, 821 who had detailed hospital records and 100 who died.

They found that 87 percent of those who died were aged 5 to 59, and 71 percent of severe cases were among people 5 to 59, compared to a usual average of 32 percent for seasonal flu.

“This wave of pneumonia is reminiscent of the initial phase of pandemics from the last century,” they wrote.

Health experts have speculated that people over the age of 52 have some protection from the new virus because it may resemble a strain of H1N1 flu that circulated before 1957.

“Influenza A H1N1 abruptly disappeared from humans in 1957 and was replaced by a new reassortant virus that combined genes from the H1N1 strain and an avian virus,” Dr. Shanta Zimmer and Dr. Donald Burke of the University of Pittsburgh wrote in a second report in the same journal. Flu viruses frequently swap genes in a process called reassortment.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)


201 posted on 07/02/2009 10:00:01 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: OB1kNOb
Posts 189 & 201 are articles about H1N1 also attacking healthy people. I'm finding more & more cases were they are no preexisting conditions being reported in the deaths. Too many news reports were they're not counting cases anymore . 2nd case being reported that Tamiflu didn't work either .. And I don't think pregnancy should be a pre exisiting condition either but with H1N1 it's being counted as a pre-exisiting condition .
202 posted on 07/02/2009 10:07:56 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: OB1kNOb

I think alot of people think I have no pre-existing medical conditions . So I have nothing to worry about ... Here’s some more info :)

Mexican swine flu victims were young, some healthy

Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:07pm EDT
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor
http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE55S6BS20090629

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Swine flu patients in Mexico were young and many were healthy before developing severe infections, doctors reported on Monday.

The first detailed studies of the outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza show the epidemic in Mexico resembled the early stages of other pandemics, and showed there is no way yet to predict who will become severely ill from the virus.

The World Health Organization has confirmed 70,893 cases in the new H1N1 swine flu pandemic, with 311 deaths. However, U.S. health officials last week said there were likely at least a million cases there alone. Iraq, Lithuania, Monaco and Nepal all confirmed their first cases on Monday.

Dr. Rogelio Perez-Padilla of the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Mexico City and colleagues studied 18 H1N1 cases in March and April, more than half of them aged 13 to 47.

Only eight had pre-existing medical conditions that might worsen their flu infection, they wrote — including high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma and sleep apnea. Seven died — all of multiple organ failure.

The doctors said 90 percent of the seriously ill patients were under 50 — in contrast to seasonal influenza, which causes mostly mild illness in people under the age of 65.

“Most of our patients were young to middle-aged and had previously been healthy,” they wrote in their report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“One contributing factor for death in our patients may have been delayed admission and delayed initiation of oseltamivir.”

Oseltamivir, sold by Roche AG under the brand name Tamiflu, can treat influenza, although Denmark reported the first case on Monday of swine flu resisting the drug’s effects.

“We did not find a factor that, before the onset of illness, predicted a worse outcome or death among our patients,” Perez-Padilla’s team wrote.

HEALTHCARE WORKERS

In addition, 22 of 190 healthcare workers who came close to the patients themselves got flu-like illness but were treated with Tamiflu and none got seriously ill.

Dr. Stefano Bertozzi of the National Institute of Public Health in Mexico and colleagues studied the cases of 2,155 people who developed severe pneumonia from H1N1 infection in March and April, 821 who had detailed hospital records and 100 who died.

They found that 87 percent of those who died were aged 5 to 59, and 71 percent of severe cases were among people 5 to 59, compared to a usual average of 32 percent for seasonal flu.

“This wave of pneumonia is reminiscent of the initial phase of pandemics from the last century,” they wrote.

Health experts have speculated that people over the age of 52 have some protection from the new virus because it may resemble a strain of H1N1 flu that circulated before 1957.

“Influenza A H1N1 abruptly disappeared from humans in 1957 and was replaced by a new reassortant virus that combined genes from the H1N1 strain and an avian virus,” Dr. Shanta Zimmer and Dr. Donald Burke of the University of Pittsburgh wrote in a second report in the same journal. Flu viruses frequently swap genes in a process called reassortment.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)

Swine flu hitting young, healthy adults hardest (Canada)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/swine-flu-hitting-young-healthy-adults-hardest/article1203826/

The young and healthy who feel invincible from the H1N1 “swine flu” influenza pandemic may not be as bulletproof as they think, warn public health experts.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians hospitalized due to swine flu, and half of those who have died, had no underlying health conditions.

Experts do not yet understand why the new strain affects some healthy people so severely, ravaging their lungs with an aggressive pneumonia and forcing them to spend weeks in hospital, attached to breathing machines.

“They are ending up on ventilators and it can last from weeks to months,” said Michael Gardam, director of infectious diseases at the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. “I would like people to be concerned about H1N1, without panicking. More concerned than they are about seasonal flu.”

A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups.


203 posted on 07/02/2009 10:25:07 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: DvdMom; WestCoastGal; Oorang; Rushmore Rocks; Velveeta; grey_whiskers; null and void; ...

Thank you for the ping. You’re doing a fantastic job keeping up with H1N1.


204 posted on 07/02/2009 10:32:51 AM PDT by LucyT
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To: LucyT

A squirt of a “protecting virus” up the nose to defend against any strain of influenza — such as the one that killed 50 million people in 1918 — is ready for testing on ...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1530601/Nose-spray-could-halt-flu-epidemic.html


205 posted on 07/02/2009 10:57:28 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: DvdMom; yefragetuwrabrumuy

Thanks for finding the link!


206 posted on 07/02/2009 11:05:01 AM PDT by LucyT
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To: LucyT; DvdMom

Thanks to you both for your efforts and pings.


207 posted on 07/02/2009 11:24:16 AM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Oorang

Britain braces for 100,000 swine flu cases a day

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D996EK4G4&show_article=1&catnum=0


208 posted on 07/02/2009 2:18:39 PM PDT by DvdMom
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To: DvdMom; LucyT
From your linked article above:

"Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August," Health Minister Andy Burnham told the House of Commons on Thursday.

209 posted on 07/02/2009 2:28:13 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Oorang

more info here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8130097.stm


210 posted on 07/02/2009 2:42:52 PM PDT by DvdMom
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To: 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...

Mexican swine flu victims were young, some healthy

Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:07pm EDT
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor
http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE55S6BS20090629

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Swine flu patients in Mexico were young and many were healthy before developing severe infections, doctors reported on Monday.

The first detailed studies of the outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza show the epidemic in Mexico resembled the early stages of other pandemics, and showed there is no way yet to predict who will become severely ill from the virus.

The World Health Organization has confirmed 70,893 cases in the new H1N1 swine flu pandemic, with 311 deaths. However, U.S. health officials last week said there were likely at least a million cases there alone. Iraq, Lithuania, Monaco and Nepal all confirmed their first cases on Monday.

Dr. Rogelio Perez-Padilla of the National Institute of Respiratory Diseases in Mexico City and colleagues studied 18 H1N1 cases in March and April, more than half of them aged 13 to 47.

Only eight had pre-existing medical conditions that might worsen their flu infection, they wrote — including high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma and sleep apnea. Seven died — all of multiple organ failure.

The doctors said 90 percent of the seriously ill patients were under 50 — in contrast to seasonal influenza, which causes mostly mild illness in people under the age of 65.

“Most of our patients were young to middle-aged and had previously been healthy,” they wrote in their report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“One contributing factor for death in our patients may have been delayed admission and delayed initiation of oseltamivir.”

Oseltamivir, sold by Roche AG under the brand name Tamiflu, can treat influenza, although Denmark reported the first case on Monday of swine flu resisting the drug’s effects.

“We did not find a factor that, before the onset of illness, predicted a worse outcome or death among our patients,” Perez-Padilla’s team wrote.

HEALTHCARE WORKERS

In addition, 22 of 190 healthcare workers who came close to the patients themselves got flu-like illness but were treated with Tamiflu and none got seriously ill.

Dr. Stefano Bertozzi of the National Institute of Public Health in Mexico and colleagues studied the cases of 2,155 people who developed severe pneumonia from H1N1 infection in March and April, 821 who had detailed hospital records and 100 who died.

They found that 87 percent of those who died were aged 5 to 59, and 71 percent of severe cases were among people 5 to 59, compared to a usual average of 32 percent for seasonal flu.

“This wave of pneumonia is reminiscent of the initial phase of pandemics from the last century,” they wrote.

Health experts have speculated that people over the age of 52 have some protection from the new virus because it may resemble a strain of H1N1 flu that circulated before 1957.

“Influenza A H1N1 abruptly disappeared from humans in 1957 and was replaced by a new reassortant virus that combined genes from the H1N1 strain and an avian virus,” Dr. Shanta Zimmer and Dr. Donald Burke of the University of Pittsburgh wrote in a second report in the same journal. Flu viruses frequently swap genes in a process called reassortment.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)

Swine flu hitting young, healthy adults hardest (Canada)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/swine-flu-hitting-young-healthy-adults-hardest/article1203826/

The young and healthy who feel invincible from the H1N1 “swine flu” influenza pandemic may not be as bulletproof as they think, warn public health experts.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians hospitalized due to swine flu, and half of those who have died, had no underlying health conditions.

Experts do not yet understand why the new strain affects some healthy people so severely, ravaging their lungs with an aggressive pneumonia and forcing them to spend weeks in hospital, attached to breathing machines.

“They are ending up on ventilators and it can last from weeks to months,” said Michael Gardam, director of infectious diseases at the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. “I would like people to be concerned about H1N1, without panicking. More concerned than they are about seasonal flu.”

A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups.


211 posted on 07/02/2009 2:46:07 PM PDT by DvdMom
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To: metmom

Eurosurveillance, Volume 14, Issue 26, 02 July 2009
Rapid communications
Modelling of the influenza A(H1N1)v outbreak in Mexico City, April-May 2009, with control sanitary measures
G Cruz-Pacheco ()1, L Duran2, L Esteva3, A A Minzoni1, M López-Cervantes2, P Panayotaros1, A Ahued Ortega4, I Villaseñor Ruíz4

Abstract:
We use a time dependent modification of the Kermack and McKendrick model to study the evolution of the influenza A(H1N1)v epidemic reported in the Mexico City area under the control measures used during April and May 2009. The model illustrates how the sanitary measures postponed the peak of the epidemic and decreased its intensity. It provides quantitative predictions on the effect of relaxing the sanitary measures after a period of control. We show how the sanitary measures reduced the maximal prevalence of the infected population from 10% to less than 6% of the total population. We also show how the model predicts the time of maximal prevalence and explains the effect of the control measures.

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19254


212 posted on 07/02/2009 3:41:33 PM PDT by DvdMom
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To: DvdMom
A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups. That seems to be the pattern here in the USA as well.
213 posted on 07/02/2009 7:13:08 PM PDT by Palladin (Obama to Iranian despots: "No hot dogs for you!")
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To: DvdMom

Uhuh...I thought the first case of tamiflu resistance was in the Netherlands...this Japanese case is the 2nd and it’s on the other side of the world!!!

And if you live in the UK and you can’t see the Drs - or they won’t see you... I guess you had better get your vit D3, get your benadryl, get your tagamet and get lots of fluids.

TPTB are hanging the average Joe out to dry on this one in the UK.


214 posted on 07/02/2009 8:08:57 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...and get praying!)
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To: LucyT; Smokin' Joe; FromLori

Swine flu transmission studies suggest new virus is here to stay

Published Friday July 3rd, 2009
By Helen Branswell
The Canadian Press
http://dailygleaner.canadaeast.com/liveit/article/717415

TORONTO - Swine flu viruses are missing at least two key features seen in all flu viruses present and past that transmit well among people and yet the viruses are spreading quite efficiently, two new studies suggest.

The research groups which produced the work differ slightly in their views of the degree to which the novel H1N1 virus is spreading, with one finding transmission isn’t yet as efficient as with human flu viruses while the other finding transmission rates are in lockstep with those of seasonal flu cousins.

There is no disputing the evidence, though - the virus is spreading around the globe, claiming at least 332 lives so far. And it is doing this without all the tools scientists would expect a flu virus to need to become a successful human pathogen.

“The take-home message is that a virus that does not have some of the features that we have previously recognized as hallmarks of adaptation of flu in humans was able to establish itself in humans and cause disease,” said Dr. Daniel Perez, an influenza virologist with the University of Maryland.

“Regardless of what the virus might do, I believe it is here to stay either as a whole virus or with some of its gene. It may be able to outcompete and-or co-circulate with seasonal flu strains.”

Perez was not involved in the studies, both of which will be published Friday in the journal Science. He is, however, familiar with the work; his lab has completed a similar study.

The transmission studies were done by research groups at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control with colleagues from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

Both groups tested spread in ferrets, which are considered an excellent model for flu infection in humans.

The CDC’s work suggests the virus isn’t yet completely adapted to spread among humans. When healthy ferrets were housed in cages adjacent to and sharing feeding dishes with experimentally infected animals, only two-thirds of the healthy animals became infected in the CDC research.

By contrast, the group in the Netherlands found all healthy ferrets caught the new virus when housed next to animals infected with the virus. Perez’s work also saw this 100 per cent transmission rate.

In both the CDC and Erasmus studies, ferrets that were infected with human flu viruses transmitted infection to all their healthy neighbours.

Dr. Terrence Tumpey, senior author of the CDC study, said variation in the air flow setups between the CDC’s ferret cages and those used in the other studies may explain the differing findings.

But based on what they saw, his team believes this virus may still be getting used to its new human host.

A key piece of evidence supporting their conclusion relates to the virus’s ability to infect cells in the human respiratory tract. The CDC-MIT scientists showed the novel H1N1 virus’s hemagglutinin - the surface protein that locks onto a cell it is about to invade - currently makes a connection that is weaker or less efficient than that made by regular flu viruses.

That suggests the virus has room for improvement. And if it mutates to bind more efficiently, it would become even more adept at spreading from person to person.

“I mean, it’s transmitting. But we think it could potentially transmit even better,” Tumpey said from Atlanta.

He suggested with better transmission could come more severe disease - not just in sheer numbers, but in the proportion of infected people who develop serious illness.

“A lot of cases have been mild. But if it was adapted more towards humans, it could be more severe. More consistently severe,” Tumpey said.

His counterpart on the Dutch paper, Dr. Ron Fouchier, shares his concerns.

“I do agree that the virus might still pick up mutations to improve infection and transmission in humans. But in our opinion, it is already good enough to beat the seasonal flu viruses,” he said via email.

The CDC scientists also reported that the virus is missing a feature in an internal gene called PB2 that is known to relate to transmissibility.

All seasonal flu viruses and the past three pandemic viruses - in other words, all flu viruses which have successfully made the jump from other species into humans - have had this feature. The swine H1N1 virus does not.

They don’t know how the virus achieved transmissibility without this mutation or how likely it is to acquire it. But Tumpey said the mutation is also linked to increased virulence or disease severity and the flu community is watching closely for this change.

Both groups studied tissues from the infected ferrets. They found swine flu viruses triggered infections that went deep into the lungs of the animals. Human flu strains infect the animals’ upper airways.

That ability of the virus to spread to and proliferate deep in the lungs could help explain what doctors caring for severely ill swine flu patients are seeing: aggressive viral pneumonias that incapacitate the lungs.

“Certainly, the lesions we noted in our ferrets are consistent with the disease in humans,” Fouchier said.

“It seems that due to more extensive virus replication, the virus does more damage, and spreads deeper down the airways as compared to seasonal viruses.”

Those findings are concerning, suggested Dr. Malik Peiris, a virologist and flu expert at the University of Hong Kong.

Peiris, who was not involved in the studies, said that while the swine flu virus is not as virulent as H5N1 avian influenza or the virus that caused the 1918 Spanish flu, its ability to infect the lower respiratory tract “is clearly cause for caution in regard to the pathogenic potential of this virus in humans.”

Both H5N1 and the Spanish flu virus infect tissues deep in the lungs.

Fouchier said he is concerned the novel H1N1’s ability to invade deep lung tissue could lead to more severe disease when the virus is spreading in true winter conditions, which are better suited to spread of flu


215 posted on 07/03/2009 7:22:58 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: Domestic Church

Commentary

Tamiflu Resistant Swine H1N1 in Hong Kong and San Francisco

Recombinomics Commentary 13:36
July 3, 2009
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07030901/H274Y_HK_SF.html

The virus was identified during PHLSB’s routine sensitivity test of HSI virus to oseltamivir and zanamivir, the spokesman said.

“This is the first time Tamiflu resistance in HSI virus found in Hong Kong,” he said, adding that similar cases were also reported in Denmark and possibly Japan.

“Tests showed that this strain is sensitive to zanamivir (Relenza),” he said.

The virus was isolated from the specimen taken from a 16-year-old girl coming from San Francisco. She was intercepted by Port Health Office at the Hong Kong International Airport on June 11 upon arrival. The girl was then admitted to Queen Mary Hospital for isolation. She was tested positive to HSI but opted not to take tamiflu. She had mild symptoms and was eventually discharged upon recovery on June 18.

The spokesman noted that PHLSB conducted routine sensitivity tests on specimens taken from confirmed HSI patients.

The above comments from the Hong Kong Department of Health press release describe Tamiflu resistance (presumably H274Y, aka H275Y) in a patient arriving from San Francisco. The resistance was discovered during routine surveillance and there is no indication the patient was taking oseltamivir, indicating the pandemic H1N1 was evolutionarily fit.

The two other cases described this were (in Denmark and Japan) were in patients under prophylactic treat of Tamiflu. In both cases the resistance was due to H274Y (and discovered because of the prophylactic treatment).

Evolutionarily fit swine flu with H274Y is cause for concern. Last year seasonal H1N1 with H274Y spread worldwide. It had previous spread from one genetic background to another via genetic hitchhiking and recombination.

It is likely that H274Y in pandemic H1N1 will now follow a similar, but accelerated, pathway due to widespread use of oseltamivir to control the spread of pandemic H1N1.

The export of H274Y from San Francisco, and failure to identify the polymorphism in the United States, raises serious surveillance concerns.


216 posted on 07/03/2009 7:24:19 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: metmom

http://www.acep.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=45781
...Scenario
[This scenario is a national planning scenario based on available information, within which are certain assumptions that may change as information becomes more precise. It is meant to be challenging and realistic, but is not predictive.]
The first cases of novel H1N1 reappear in an unspecified area of the nation in late September.
Early cases are not recognized as influenza,” “and will be treated conservatively, affording the opportunity for transmission to schoolmates and family.
The vaccine for the novel H1N1 will not be ready for distribution in large volumes until late October. Vaccine for the novel H1N1 may require two injections, at least two weeks apart, to stimulate immunity. Immunity will not be sufficient to protect subjects from infection until two weeks after the second injection.

Local officials will be hesitant to implement community mitigation strategies early in an outbreak, especially school closure so close to the beginning of the school year.
The media will continue” “ to fuel the public sentiment that health officials over-reacted to the spring wave and are doing likewise to the fall cases.
( Oh I get it: the media are under orders to “fuel” that memo; “to prevent panic” )
There will be political pressure to keep schools open because of large numbers of workers without “time off” benefits to care for their children. “
(Because workplaces refused to, and govt refused to, despite over 3.5 years of warning, to make it so!)

“The Federal government will not have solutions in place, such as emergency wage replacement, to mitigate
that pressure.” [Because the feds gave it all to the banksters/China]
“Because of economic pressures and high value placed on jobs in a weakened economy, workers will continue to work when sick, exacerbating transmission in the most contagious stage of their illness.
After a few weeks of the fall wave, the prevalence in affected parts of the country will increase. The first few deaths will be reported, some in young individuals.
Emergency departments will begin to see large volumes of people who are not ill with the flu but are concerned that they or their children “might have it.”
They are requesting screening and prescriptions for antivirals. Emergency departments will experience a 150% increase in chief
complaints with respiratory symptoms.
By mid-October, 15,000 cases will be reported across the country, with hot spots in urban areas that have not employed community mitigation strategies.
The highest prevalence will be among children and young adults, but during this wave, there will be a 5-fold increase in mortality,
with 250 deaths by late-October, mostly in school-age children and those in late teens.”
[”Planning scenario still refusing to deal with an 80% to 100% fatal H5N1-wave for preparedness purposes?]
“The CDC will document the increased virulence, and communities will begin to close schools.
Health guidance will be provided encouraging those with fever, cold symptoms, sore throat or respiratory symptoms to remain at home and wear masks in public, and to go to their doctor or the emergency department if acutely ill. This will be concurrent with fall allergy season, when a large proportion of people report nasal symptoms in a normal year, and many of those will normally have sore throat
and cough. The highest concentration of people who have no doctor or health coverage is the same population at greatest risk for becoming ill with novel H1N1: children and young adults.
Even though the prevalence of illness is less than 2%, some public officials may discourage the use of public transportation or participating in other close gatherings.
There will be increased demand on emergency medical services for transport of patients to the hospital who would normally see a doctor via public transportation.
As the prevalence of disease increases, deaths of children will be in the news regardless of the case fatality rate, and concerned parents will want their children checked if they have any related symptoms. Primary care providers who may have the capacity to see only a few extra people per day, will be overbooked and will be referring patients to the emergency department.”..
Planning Assumptions see pdf p 6


217 posted on 07/03/2009 7:49:09 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: Palladin

Not good:

First Tamiflu-resistant swine flu case found in teenager (Hong Kong)
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking_news_detail.asp?id=15461

A 16-year-old girl was found to be infected with a mutation of the swine flu virus that is resistant to the antiviral Tamiflu soon after arriving from San Francisco, the Department of Health said today.

It is the first such case in Hong Kong. Similar cases have been reported in Denmark and Japan.

The teenager was intercepted at the airport on June 11 and admitted to Queen Mary Hospital.

She opted not to be put on a course of Tamiflu before testing positive for the swine flu strain, which is known to be resistant to the antiviral.

She had mild symptoms and was discharged on June 18.

The case will be reported to the World Health Organization.

Danish health authorities have used Relenza, an alternative anti-flu medication, to successfully treat a female patient with the same strain.

The Japanese said a patient was found to be resistant to Tamiflu after being put on the drug since she was being diagnosed with the H1N1 virus around two weeks ago, Kyodo news agency reported yesterday.

The Osaka prefecture patient was recovering after having been given Relenza.

A spokeswoman for Swiss pharmaceuticals giant Roche, which makes Tamiflu, said the company had been informed of the case and described as ‘’normal’’ such resistance to the drug.

‘’It is absolutely normal,’’ she said, adding that ‘’0.4 percent of adults develop resistance’’ to Tamiflu.

She said such cases do not indicate Tamiflu has become less effective against swine flu.


218 posted on 07/03/2009 7:57:49 AM PDT by DvdMom
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To: DvdMom

Studies: Novel H1N1 affects deep lung tissue, transmits fairly well
Maryn McKenna and Lisa Schnirring Staff Writers

Jul 2, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – The novel H1N1 (swine) influenza now circling the globe causes more serious lung disease than seasonal flu strains and sheds from the lung and throat tissue where it reproduces at higher rates, according to two animal studies published today—findings that could explain autopsies and case reports of severe pneumonia as well as the virus’s rapid spread.

And while the studies, conducted in ferrets and mice, agree that the new flu passes fairly well between individuals, they disagree over the effectiveness of different modes of transmission.

[snip]

“We all anticipate that H1N1 will be a dominant if not the dominant influenza strain.”

Much More Here:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/jul0209h1n1.html


219 posted on 07/03/2009 11:26:59 AM PDT by LucyT
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To: LucyT

The lady working at the florist dept in the local grocery store said she has been hearing alot of recent cases were

quite a few people are in the hospital with pneumonia ....


220 posted on 07/03/2009 1:04:42 PM PDT by DvdMom
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