New Solar Cycle Prediction

NASA ^ | May 29, 2009 | Dr. Tony Phillips

[Talisker]

An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

[Talisker]

LOL, I just had to laugh. NASA doesn't have a clue as to what's going on, but they're desperate to somehow keep supporting Global Warming. Check out this ridiculous chart the drew in crayon, with zero actual data (including any indication of a beginning of the next cycle):

[dadgum]

Time to stock up on blankets and fuel.

[Question_Assumptions]

Has Solar Cycle 24 even started yet?

[dadgum]

Time to stock up on blankets and fuel.

[charmedone]

Lowest number of SS since 1928? Hmmm. Dustbowl, financial ruin, CLIMATE CHANGE?????

[Robert A Cook PE]

Well, not really. We are still at zero-two spots per month.

[Dr. Bogus Pachysandra]

“Time to stock up on blankets and fuel.”

You can say that again!

[Star Traveler]

People should note the “Maunder Minimum” and use that in comparison to anything that they think is going on today...

Maunder Minimum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum

And this...

---

Deep Solar Minimum

An item on SpaceWeather.com speculates that 2009 could match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century.

The report posted March 22, 2009 says

Where have all the sunspots gone? As of yesterday, March 21st, the sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues through the end of the year, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century.

A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned.

We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum.

[ http://www.southgatearc.org/news/march2009/deep_solar_minimum.htm ]

---

So, if we even approach a Maunder Minimum, we’re in for a lot of cold, cold winters, and certainly not all this stuff that the AGW people (Anthropogenic Global Warming) talk about... :-)

IN FACT..., it’s sort of like “someone” has created this very low sunspot cycle to demonstrate the cooling it produces, in order to “put the lie” to the AGW people... LOL...

[SandRat]

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees, (or Al BORE). There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

[Talisker]

Has Solar Cycle 24 even started yet?

If you were a real scientist you'd understand that such a simple, direct question is clear evidence that you don't comprehend the complexity of the analysis required to interpret the validity of the datastream or the statistical boundaries involved in the proper assessment of the relevent domains.

Next question.

[Star Traveler]

For “solar minimums” and the “Maunder Minimum”, in connection with the idea of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming, everyone has to see this, and also they’ve gotta show everyone they know, too...

It’s one thing to gripe and complain about these things and disagree with it, but it’s quite *another* to convince your friends and neighbors and relatives and coworkers...

THEREFORE..., it’s also absolutely necessary for people to know the information in the following documentary. If there were simply *one* video that you could see and/or show people you know... this would be the *one*...

---

The following is an *excellent* video documentary on the so-called “Global Warming” I would recommend it to all FReepers. It’s a very well-made documentary.

“The Great Global Warming Swindle”

If you want to download it, via a BitTorrent site (using a BitTorrent client), you can get it at the following link.
http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/3635222/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle
[this is a high-quality copy, of about a gigabyte in size...]

It’s worth seeing and having for relatives, friends, neighbors and coworkers to see.

Also, see it online here...
http://www.moviesfoundonline.com/great_global_warming_swindle.php
[this one is considerably lower quality, is a flash video and viewable online, of course...]

Buy it here...
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000WLUXZE
[this one would be the very highest quality version, on a DVD disk, of several gigabytes in size...]

—

Also, in split parts on YouTube...

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 1 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMA6sszChwQ

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 2 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERisgJ3QWjk

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 3 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HLVYwmZoxc

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 4 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr-AG3BA1Go

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 5 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbllTsBHuxk

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 6 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyK7C1OrAAo

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 7 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrIX8LcAuMQ

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 8 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-ZmCDOZbtM

[LiveFree99]

Read this earlier today and got a good chuckle from it.

[Wissa]

Check out this ridiculous chart the drew in crayon, with zero actual data (including any indication of a beginning of the next cycle):

Kinda reminds me of the forecasts about the economy.

[thedilg]

chart the drew in crayon, with zero actual data (including any indication of a beginning of the next cycle):
*********************************************************
Thanks for providing the Chart. As you so correctly observerd there is no data that supports the start of cycle 24, its shape, its peak, its nothing. Of course that is par for the global warmists.

[Star Traveler]

It’s really important for people to understand what the data is all about, that NASA is talking about, and the significance of the Maunder Minimum to the AGW discussion (Anthropogenic Global Warming) going on today.

There is a connection and those two posts (Post #8 and Post #11) will get you up to speed, plus the video will give something very easy for your friends and neighbors to understand, and will get them out of this misunderstanding about AGW...

[Star Traveler]

You said — Kinda reminds me of the forecasts about the economy.

—

There is something *very clear* that one *can forecast* from this data, if one gets into the information in Post #8 and #11...

The Maunder Minimum (mentioned in that article, too) is key to the AGW debate...

[Star Traveler]

You said — Thanks for providing the Chart. As you so correctly observerd there is no data that supports the start of cycle 24, its shape, its peak, its nothing. Of course that is par for the global warmists.

—

Yeah, and what’s to make them think that we won’t get into a Maunder Minimum type of situation which will produce a “Little Ice Age” again, like we had several hundred years ago?

They seem to think we can’t go into a Maunder Minimum type of situation again... and that’s *key* to understanding the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) debate going on today.

[jongaltsr]

No. You idiots are all wrong.

The solar output will peak on December 23 2012 and the earth will be engulfed with flairs which will kill anyone facing the sun. Probably 90% or even all life will die.

[Talisker]

Thanks for the links, they cover it all. It’s hard to get through to non-science types about the difference between the Anthropogenic and Solar Global Warming models. They literally stand there and point to car exhausts as “proof,” without understanding the impact of even one medium-sized volcanic eruption, or the percentage difference between carbon dioxide and water vapor, or the complete disconnect between CO2 levels and temperature, or the sheer power of solar radiation compared to anything else on the planet.

If anyone remembers Zen & the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, there was a character in it who had a very expensive BMW motorcycle, but would get furious when anything went wrong with it, and refused to learn how to do any maintenance or minor repairs. AGW people remind me of him - they are so sure of their so-called science, but become enraged when anyone brings up scientific principles, data, inquiry, or anything connected with it - and other than braying their “opinions,” they have zero ability to defend themselves.

[CanaGuy]

Great site to eavesdrop on the sci community discussing the gory details of climate physics. They tend to be anti-political for the most part and concentrate on the data.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/