WRAPUP 1-Mexico orders economic shutdown; pandemic imminent

Reuters ^ | Thu Apr 30, 2009 | Catherine Bremer and Laura MacInnis

[penelopesire]

MEXICO CITY/GENEVA, April 30 (Reuters) - Mexico's president told citizens to stay home from Friday for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy, after the World Health Organisation raised its alert level and said a swine flu pandemic was imminent.

In his first televised address since the crisis erupted last week, President Felipe Calderon told Mexicans to stay home with their families. The country will suspend non-essential work and services, including some government ministries, from May 1-5.

"There is no safer place than your own home to avoid being infected with the flu virus," Calderon said.

[444Flyer]

Thanks for your post #8. I have been doing some investigating. I went to buy some N95 medical masks today at the only medical supply in my area. The N95 are the only masks that give you full coverage from the flu invading your mouth and nose. They are completely sold out and the manager told me that they won’t get any more for months. She said the CDC are stockpiling them right now. Why would they do that if they weren’t seeing something fierce coming? This is another little tidbit you won’t see on the 5 O’clock news. After reading your post, I’m even more alarmed than I was earlier today.

(I would recommend everyone picking up one of these masks if they have any more in your area, before you can’t find them like myself.)

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

If the 5.5% rate for fatalities in this flu is for those who get the sickness, it does not compare to the rate among those HOSPITALIZED with seasonal flu, since most folks with the flu do not get hospitalized.

[444Flyer]

Ping to post #8.

[dsrtsage]

I have been working in Southern Mexico, and got ordered to return to the US yesterday. I was in Colima, and didn’t feel any danger. However, I felt a little uncomfortable being forced into going on 2 planes, and flying through LAX. I guess I got 24 to 48 hours before I know if I got sick because of traveling. On the other hand, if they do close the border, its better to be here than there if I do get sick.

[ClancyJ]

You can close the border all you want - but what about those in the US that already have it?

It is already here. Complaining about closing borders does not do anything now. Would have been nice - but if you look at the numbers in the U.S. it is spreading quickly.

[Brad’s Gramma]

bfl

[ClancyJ]

I wonder if this is just the “test” bioweapon attack. See what happens on this. The next “mistake” might be a lot more serious.

Of course, it does not really matter if this was planned or not. We live in such an ignorant society where no one has the brains to think anymore (as proved by Washington), we will kill off ourselves.

Can you imagine any city, state, or national official being able to protect us?

[ClancyJ]

The 23-month old was the first to die in the U.S. - has been on the news or at least online.

[muggs]

Tempted to go to the store(24 hr) while people are not there to stock up on supplies and while I am on a coffee binge...lol.

I did that at 2am Saturday. Thought I would avoid the crowds. The only people in the store were a bunch of Mexican guys cleaning the floors.

[pepsionice]

Let me make some comparisons here....after reading a fair amount on pandemics (at least two books on the 1918 event).

First, if you look at the amount of information that we knew at the time of the 1918 episode...it would have filled two pages at the most. Science was just starting to take off in terms of analysis of this sort. Today? We probably have 500,000 pages of data available on this flu, and its shared on a hour by hour basis.

In 1918...almost no government acted responsibly. President Wilson did almost nothing and you will only find a couple of mayors or governors who had the authority or the will to take action. Today, we already have governments ready to cut off air travel to Mexico....and some are prepared to shut down air travel entirely...for weeks...if necessary.

The amount of medicine to help in 1918? Other than aspirin and water...that was about it. Today, there are likely 100 types of medicine that you could give out...with varying effects (limited to maximum effect).

Socialized medicine? We didn’t have it in 1918 in any country...and it didn’t really matter. What you will notice today...is that we are spending thousands of times what we were spending in 1918 for medicine and care. Entire markets exist today....that didn’t exist in 1918.

Then we come to sanitary practices. To be kinda honest...we use a heck of alot of bacterial killing items on a daily basis today...something we didn’t do in 1918. We are ten times cleaner...than we were in 1918.

So the idea of healthcare to nationalizing it...its hard for me to see what you truly gain. This won’t be the same as the 1918 episode. Its a totally different environment.

[Marie]

OK, there’s a serious disconnect here.

Either the WHO is trying to downplay the situation in Mexico to prevent panic or the Mexican government is loosing it’s mind over nothing.

The Mexicans are saying that they have over 150 deaths and the WHO says that it’s just over half a dozen. That is a BIG difference people. Somebody’s full of it.

I hate to say it, but I can’t think of one reason for the Mexican government to shut down it’s entire economy for five days when they’re already suffering unless it’s really serious. The damage this will do to *them* is horrible.

[LibertyRocks]

That’s why I read the Bible... NO seriously...

The reason the schools closed in Texas is because people were TOO STUPID not to send sick children to school. I remember my days working in a Montessori School/DayCare Center back in the early 1990s. Our rule of thumb? Anyone with a fever of 101degrees was NOT allowed back to school until they had been to a doctor, had a note, and had been either fever-free for a day or two, or on antibiotics for at least 48 hours.

We HAD to do this, and we HAD to sometimes take parents aside and say — your child is sick, you CAN’T go to work today... And, these were PROFESSIONALS whose children we were looking after (it was a very expensive school, and most of the parents were lawyers, scientists, business execs, and the like).

Honestly, it ALL comes back to GREED (or selfishness).

As for the “test” attack. Very possible, IMHO. The information on how ill-prepared countries around the world are vs. others, what precautions the govt’s will take, etc... This would be very much like the “dry run” the 9/11 terrorists apparently did before that event.

If one were to go along that line of theory of a terrorist attack, it’s also possible that it “got out” before they could “perfect it”, or on accident. There’s a story out there that the particular pig farm they may have identified as “ground zero” in this was protested by local villagers complaining about the smell. OOPS... lots infected on accident, and then they can’t “containerize” it and their plans are ruined... [Note the location of the pig farm is a KNOWN Drug Cartel “ruled” area - guns, drugs, money - just the kind of folks terrorists pal around with...]

[NOTE: People may not realize this, but a pig is like the PERFECT incubator for developing a virus of this sort. As for those who say why would an Islamic Terrorist even want to be around a pig — maybe the philosophy of Taqqiya covers this sort of thing in their “jihad” manuals! LOL Or, maybe they just paid someone else to do their “dirty work”.]

If that IS the case — that this got out “on accident” before they were “finished”, then we may have “caught a break” so to speak. The problem is with viruses like these (and this one could NOT have evolved ‘naturally’ to begin with), is that they then have the ability to strengthen itself just like a “normal” flu.

OK, can’t think of all the possible scenarios for too long or it could drive one nuts! I should write these all down somewhere though — they could be great plots for novels, or screenplays (or the next season of “24”! LOL)

[Straight Vermonter]

Correct but we have no idea how many infected people are not being hospitalized with this one. If we compare only those sick enough to be hospitalized (in both instances) then we are comparing apples to apples.

We are hearing a lot about this outbreak because it is a new strain and the time of year (spring instead of winter) is unexpected. Nothing that I have seen indicates it is particularly deadly.

Let's not forget that early reports of SARS had the fatality rate at 43% in some stories. It turned out to be around 6.5%.

[Straight Vermonter]

The Mexicans are saying that they have over 150 deaths and the WHO says that it’s just over half a dozen. That is a BIG difference people. Somebody’s full of it.

The Mexican government is counting the people who likely died of the disease. The WHO is counting people who have died and their test results have come back confirming that they died of the disease. The true number will, clearly, be somewhere in the middle.

[Straight Vermonter]

My sister is a day care provider and says it is routine for parents to pump their kids full of advil to get the fever down enough so they can at least go into work for a half day.

[Quix]

THANKS THANKS

Saw that on ATS.

[Marie]

I just ordered some online. They *say* they’ll be shipped out within 24 hours. We’ll see.

I need to make another grocery run ASAP.

[Windflier]

We are in Texas where they are closing ALL schools. Very scary.

I'm in North Texas, myself. I've lived in border states all my life, so I'm with you. We need to close the southern border yesterday.

[AmericanInTokyo]

For what it is worth, the Japan Minister of Health stated this afternoon--middle of the night US time--in the Parliamentary Upper House Health Committee, that more or less this Mexiflu has a high degree now of advancing to "Pandemic" stage, according to his analysis. Japanese media is reporting this as of a few hours ago.

Further, hospitals are starting to construct in front of them, "emergency fever patient recipient and quarantine" areas (tents, etc.) ("hatsu netsu gai rai") (発熱外来）. Those with fevers can come to hospitals, but won’t be allowed inside and will be checked outside and kept out there if found to be a risk.

Are US hospitals doing this yet?

Photo a few hours ago in Otsu (near Kyoto).

[LibertyRocks]

Not to cause a panic, but if that 5.5% mortality rate is for all infected -- that's more than TWICE the mortality rate for the 1918 Spanish Influenza (using the lowest estimate) and THAT flu killed somewhere between 50 to 100 MILLION worldwide between 1918 and 1920. ALSO, please note that the "human" portion of this NEW virus is identified by the SAME HN number as the SPANISH INFLUENZA -- H1N1.

A statistic that would REALLY help at this point, even if it's not as accurate as it could be would be the INFECTION rate among those exposed. IIRC 1918 Spanish INfluenza had an INFECTION rate of around 50% - again those statistics are definitely subject to the research problems coming from our scientific ability to identify and examine these things coming YEARS later. A few years ago a scientist did find a frozen sample from the lungs of a 'frozen Eskimo' IIRC, and they ARE testing those samples to learn more in case it "comes back", or something like it surfaces.

[Note: as LCS pointed out that could be hospitalized cases, etc... AND, we don't really know say over the last 2 months how many deaths attributed to pneumonia as a flu complication could've been from this NEW virus... NO-ONE not even the top researchers, and virologists, and doctors at this moment in time can HONESTLY say they have ANY reliable statistics... It's NOT POSSIBLE to HAVE even a big enough sample of known, confirmed (by a laboratory) cases to scientifically develop a statistic in any real meaningful way right now. Also, seeing as many cases have been 'mild' here in the US and elsewhere, consider how many people -- like my own family who just got over a flu -- treat it at home and DON'T visit a doctor unless there are complications (like my acute bronchitis infection, or my one daughter "re-developing" a fever with a sore throat that required a trip to test for strep which was negative.) The truth is, this could be much more widespread, and may have been around a bit longer than we know right now... Again, I've personally got that nagging feeling that whatever my family had wasn't your "normal" flu.]

I think most people know this by now (I hope), and others can explain this better than I but there are (at LEAST) 4 different markers in this virus that match genetic signatures of "lone" known viruses.

North American Swine Flu (transferrable from animal-to-human, no more dangerous than a "regular flu" and NOT transmissible from human-to-human)
Asian/European Swine Flu (this might be two different strains which would make it "3 pig flus", and not 2)
North American AVIAN Flu (never made the jump to humans before, was ONLY found AFAIK before NOW in BIRDS - ONLY)
and
HUMAN Influenza Type "A" H1N1 (the "worst" strain)
[NOTE: Last night I saw a run down of the strains present in this new virus, and that list contained like 8 different one, a couple extra "pigs" added to the above list]

I don't normally link to Wikipedia, but for some quick facts on the 1918 Spanish Flu, and various problems researchers have with mortality rates, etc... (due to WWI), it looked "pretty good" to me. LINK: http://en.wikipedia.org

A few quotes from the page [the warning at the top of the WIKI page is good -- there are conflicting statements, but the gist of the information is "ok". The majority of these problems when researching the 1918 flu again are due to many problems due to war (disease outbreaks, close quarters of soldiers, malnutrition, etc...).

"The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify the geographic origin of the virus.[1] Most of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients. The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920,[2] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 20 to 100 million people were killed worldwide,[3] or the approximate equivalent of one third of the population of Europe,[4][5][6] more than double the number killed in World War I.[7] This extraordinary toll resulted from the extremely high illness rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms. The pandemic is estimated to have affected up to one billion people: half the world's population at the time.[8]"

"The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but is estimated at 2.5 to 5% of those who were infected died. Note this does not mean that 2.5-5% of the human population died; with 20% or more of the world population suffering from the disease to some extent, a case-fatality ratio this high would mean that about 0.5-1% ( ≈50 million) of the whole population died.[10] Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people[3] while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.[11] This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed more people than the Black Death.[12]"

I watched a very good documentary a couple years ago on the History Channel about the 1918 Pandemic, and nothing I saw on the WIKI article seemed WAY out of whack or anything like that... For those not familiar with how the 1918 Pandemic came about, how it spread etc... and for those who could read about it without panicking about THIS apparent pandemic, I would REALLY suggest they do so.

Praise GOD that we've come a LONG way since the early 1900s as far as medicine, and public health knowledge, but in all honesty we are OVERDUE for a serious pandemic already... If not this "Chimera Flu"/Mexiflu (which appears to be MAN-MADE), then it will be something else...

Again, PANIC is no good. Preparation, Education, and COMMON SENSE go a LONG way in keeping our friends, family, and neighbors safe (to the best of our ability).