Posted on 04/29/2009 5:24:49 PM PDT by nickcarraway
The swine flu scare is all set to surpass the dramatic turnaround in air travel caused by the Sars epidemic. The news of swine flu
broke out in India on Monday and in just two days, the rate of cancellation has jumped for international travel. While airlines said it’s too early to comment, Amadeus — one of the biggest technology providers for ticketing — said 2-4% increase in cancellations has already happened and this could rise further in coming days.
“Because of flu, we have seen a jump in cancellations for international travel transactions made in India in past two days. The overall picture could get worse in May as only last three days of April have witnessed this new reason for cancellation,” said Amadeus MD Ankur Bhatia. This comes on top of a 5% decline in bookings this April.
This is the worst news that the travel and hospitality sector could have got at this time. Thanks to the global slowdown in travel, hotels in metros are reporting very low occupancy levels. In Delhi, for instance, big hotels with over 400 rooms the occupancy is down to 30-35% and smaller ones with half that capacity are just about half full.
Not surprising, hotels had started offering very low tariffs and individual travellers from abroad were availing of these offers as never before. In Delhi, five star room tariffs are now beginning at Rs 6,000. “We have revised our advertised room rates as the luxury tax of 12.5% was charged on the rack rate and not actual rate. As a result of that, although we were giving rooms for less than advertised price but the tax was on the published rate. The industry has been requesting the government to charge luxury tax on actual rate. But since that has not happened, we have brought rack rates down to bring tax liability for guests down,” said Rajendra Kumar, a leading Delhi hotelier and a former head of North India Hotel Association.
The situation could soon get worse as swine flu is rapidly spreading to more countries. Diethelm Travel India MD Himmat Anand said that business from travellers in US and UK was down by 50% due to recession. ‘‘Business is already so bad, add to that will be inconvenience caused to customers with screening for the flu, its just one unfortunate thing after the other for the travel industry,’’ he said.
Chickin Little society
I think I read somewhere that per the CDC, all estimated flu deaths were about 36,000 annually. So far we have a miniscule handfull by comparison. It may turn out bad, but I gotta believe the media are blowing this thing out of porportion for now.
Interesting. The DJIA hit a new recent high, following the Dow Transport index, but there was enough of a delay that it needed confirmation again by the Dow Transport.
It didn’t get it, and I think this is the reason. Travel and “hospitality” businesses are going to get at least a small hit from the flu scare. At least a few people are going to cancel trips, certainly to Mexico, and perhaps elsewhere as well.
So, FWIW, Richard Russell says no Dow buy signal confirmation yet. The market bounce may not go much higher before the decline resumes.
Their Pope has said he needs crises, and they're gonna deliver an unending series of them.
Honestly, right now, can you blame people. Sitting in a sealed cabin for how many hours breaathing in recycled air? Not very inviting.
Actually, if anything, I am surprised by how much the government is downplaying it. CDC lists 91 lab confirmed cases in 10 states but if you go by reported probables, it is somewhere over 1,000 cases in at least 28 states and that is growing literally by the hour.
Remember, pandemic does not mean spread of death, just spread of illness. Most of the people who get this may just be sick for a few days and then get better.
Yup. Excellent discussion here -- excerpt:
This board is well prepared, so panic is not in the wind here. What you may not realize is many of us are very knowledgable about what you just described. It is the fact that we think beyond the initial issue that has us concerned.We recognize this is just the beginning of Wave 1. We are also aware of seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 flus that have developed an immunity to Tamiflu. This may likely mix with the common H1N1 and also develop and immunity to that medication, which is bad since it already is resistant to the amantidines and ramantidines. Hopefully Relenza will still help by the time it evolves into Wave 2
The other concern is that when it gets to the other side of the globe, that it doesn't also make its bed with H5N1. because it is so novel a version of H1N1, we don't yet know whether it is capable of gaining any of that virus' virulence. That would definitely be a bad thing.
Wave 2+ are where my heavy concern is regarding this particular bug, though in its current Wave 1 version, it could definately wreak havoc on third world populations who are already suffering from HIV and other immune compromising diseases.
No problem....We’ll bail them out...
I received an email from a friend who’s in pediatrics. Evidently she’s getting a lot of calls/emails...so she put out the facts and reminded everyone it’s a flu, and do the same things you always do during flu season. Her last line was sarcastic. “So keep your kids in a bubble and try not to breathe too much.”
Another doctor friend whose practice is mostly elderly people said the phone is ringing off the hook. All the hoopla has scared the older folks to death and they’re wanting to be seen for ordinary colds, etc. He thinks it’s irresponsible how the media/CDC/WHO is playing this up considering we have tens of thousands of deaths every year from flu, and they never make a big deal of that.
so is there more room on airline or are they still overbooking
As to whether this "crisis" is manufactured? I don't know. What I do know is that it is happening and the government is responding according to a prearranged plan. School closings are part of the social distancing policies established by CDC. In Texas alone, 53,000 students were affected by school closings this week.
If the WHO raises their phase from 5 to 6, you will see an acceleration of social distancing measures in the United States because that is a trigger in the plan.. Things like the closing of theaters and canceling sporting events. Widespread school closings and businesses going to staggered work forces. There may be mass quarantines and forced exams. How do I know all this? The CDC plan is a public document and I read it. In fact, I posted it to FR yesterday. I also listened in on a conference call held by CDC and FEMA lawyers on the legal issues surrounding Non-Pharmaceutical mitigation legal issues - things like how to implement mass quarantines under current law.
This is happening, whether we want to believe it or not.
In the mean time Joe Average Citizen especially the Greedy Geezer crowd can't fire two neurons to contemplate that two major titans of Manufacturing are now owned by the UAW and Uncle Sugar....
Honey pass me the beer nuts, Idol is on..
Bread and Circus, Rome is burning....
Cicero, we're living in strange times.
Markets Face 20% Fall If Swine Flu Spreads
World stock markets could fall by 15pc-20pc if the World Health Organisation (WHO) upgrades the swine flu outbreak to a "phase 5" crisis, a leading fund manager has warned."
[snip]
I just looked, the Japanese Nikkei is up 121 points. (?)
It’s all frightening. Thanks for the info (I think?). Info is good. I’m taking the cautious approach. Me and those near & dear are staying away from crowds for sure.
Up 328 points at 9:54
Nikkei 225 8,822.03 +328.26 +3.86%
All I can guess is that the markets don't believe the WHO and the possible seriousness of the flu pandemic now in progress.
Only 4%? Am guessing that Obama is disappointed. . .
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.