Posted on 04/21/2009 1:24:09 PM PDT by mick
Russia has stationed its forces just 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the Georgian capital, in violation of the EU-brokered cease-fire that ended last year's brief war. And in recent weeks, it has sent even more troops and armored vehicles to within striking distance of the city ahead of street protests against Georgia's president.
(Excerpt) Read more at kyivpost.com ...
Belarus is already friendly with and controlled by Russia.
Yes. But last yr when Putin made some noises about bringing them into a modified union the commie boss balked and tried to maintain some independence a la Tito. But I think you are right that when push comes to shove Belarus will disappear and Russian Tanks will roll in to protect against NATO......right on the Polish border and out flank Ukraine.
But if the Russians march into Georgia and Poland and Ukraine mobilize then the fat is in the fire.
Then the key question in the world is: What will the America Hating Community Organizer in the WH do.
And what will our military and conservative patriots do if we surrender our allies to the mercies of Comrade Putin. Somewhere in our collective memory I think I hear the opening credits of the movie "Seven Days In May" playing again. And that will not be good.
You did a fine job stopping Sherman.
Quit while you’re ahead. :)
No one cares about the “disproportionate Response’ of the new CCCP but let Israel protect herself and WHAM, out come the nazis and the 21 state muslim dictatoriate squawking about their own financed terror/propaganda that wiped out Czecholslovakia without a battle...same lies, same BS another day.... sh** this whole thing is going to end up in Megiddo faster than Obama can say,”Uh...”
The Belarussian military is a wing of the Russian one, and follows the orders of the Russian govt.
When you say a "wing" do you mean their Command and Control structure is integrated with the Russian Military or just that they are a close ally with a separate structure like the old Warsaw Pact?
the military bloggers are really starting to speculate that we could see an invasion in the very near future:
http://www.yankeesailor.us/?p=1111
The main strategic benefit for Russia these folks keep saying is the port at Poti. But the Russians already have a major base on the Black Sea.
Second, as I've mentioned above this will galvanize the Ukrainians and Poles to, at minimum, begin a defensive mobilization. And as far as the Ukrainians are concerned, nothing like a foreign threat to focus the people's mind away from their horrible domestic problems. Just today the Kiev Post is running an article that the water supply will soon be rationed in Kiev.
And third and most important...Where Stands Turkey? Will the Russian's even act if Turkey ( a NOTO member, lets not forget)objects? Maybe. But a big maybe. In 2008 the Russian's achieved a certain respect in the region...but another actual invasion to subjugate the whole country will be an entirely different matter with huge risks for the Bear.
Belarus’s C&C is integrated with Russia.
Maybe the Turks have already raised an objection in a way - reports are a large portion of their Black Sea Fleet is underway also. That’s a lot of naval hardware out a sea at one time.
From a Russian prospective there is a lot to gain and not too much to lose IMO. They are going to kill a number of birds with one stone.
1) It will put all the former Warsaw satellite countries on notice that Russia is back. The Crimea and the Baltic countries cannot like the trend developing.
2) Probably force Ukraine back to the negotiating table on a number of issues, least of which is the rights for use of the port at Sevastpool (sp).
3) If they keep the Roki tunnel intact, they will have a land route to support and supply large armored formations south of the Caucaus Mountains (historically and strategically significant).
4) Control of the gas pipelines in Georgia and would place a further stranglehold over the supply of energy to Europe.
the downside risks I see are minimal: All the Georgian armed forces are going to do is act as a speed bump. I suppose a Grozny like insurgency is not out of the question. Likelihood of direct interference from the US is practically zero. The one question mark, as Genesis rightly points out, is how is Europe going to react.
Has our President apologized yet?
Maybe the Turks have already raised an objection in a way - reports are a large portion of their Black Sea Fleet is underway also. That’s a lot of naval hardware out a sea at one time.
From a Russian prospective there is a lot to gain and not too much to lose IMO. They are going to kill a number of birds with one stone.
1) It will put all the former Warsaw satellite countries on notice that Russia is back. The Crimea and the Baltic countries cannot like the trend developing.
2) Probably force Ukraine back to the negotiating table on a number of issues, least of which is the rights for use of the port at Sevastpool (sp).
3) If they keep the Roki tunnel intact, they will have a land route to support and supply large armored formations south of the Caucaus Mountains (historically and strategically significant).
4) Control of the gas pipelines in Georgia and would place a further stranglehold over the supply of energy to Europe.
the downside risks I see are minimal: All the Georgian armed forces are going to do is act as a speed bump. I suppose a Grozny like insurgency is not out of the question. Likelihood of direct interference from the US is practically zero. The one question mark is how is Europe going to react.
maybe something, may be nothing -
http://weartv.com/template/inews_wire/wires.international/39b6d484-www.weartv.com.shtml
Gunfire exchanged on Georgia-South Ossetia border
April 23, 2009 07:04 EDT
TBILISI, Georgia (AP) — Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia have reported gunfire exchanges along their tense administrative border. No casualties have been reported.
The reported shootings occurred before talks with international monitors Thursday on efforts to diffuse tensions in the region following last year’s war between Georgia and Russia, which backs South Ossetia.
Georgia’s Interior Ministry says a police post in the village of Plavi came under automatic weapon fire for several minutes Wednesday night.
South Ossetia’s separatist government says about two hours later heavy-caliber weapons were fired on the village of Otrev, where about 15 families live. A government spokeswoman says villagers sought safety in nearby woods.
Time to fire-up the word processors down at the UN...
Russia will weaken the Ukraine through Civil War. West verses east. After the two sides weaken each other, Russia spends some money and rolls the tanks in on the cheap. Large sections of Georgia are already gone. Russia will take the rest whenever they want it. Poland will be the challenge. They seriously need nuclear weapons and I recommend purchasing as many as they need from Israel. If Poland had nukes, Russia would have to treat them as Russia is treating Israel. Attacking through proxy (Iran). So Poland will also eventually need missile defense. It seems to me that the future of the Free World is in the hands of the Israelis. DC is pretty much all tied up with Crooked Party apes throwing crap at each other.
The Russians not only want a warm water port along the southern Middle Eastern coastline, they appear to be getting one from Syria along the western Middle East coastline, they also want some major highways and railways between the Russian homeland and the strategically important warm water ports. They are also worried about our presence in Iraq and countering that appears to be the most significant strategic goal they have right now. Which explains why they are thwarting attempts to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions.
So I would agree with you that a nuclear armed Poland, along with Israeli would be an effective way to tame the Bear.And pretty much insure Germany stays inside the tent.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.