The main strategic benefit for Russia these folks keep saying is the port at Poti. But the Russians already have a major base on the Black Sea.
Second, as I've mentioned above this will galvanize the Ukrainians and Poles to, at minimum, begin a defensive mobilization. And as far as the Ukrainians are concerned, nothing like a foreign threat to focus the people's mind away from their horrible domestic problems. Just today the Kiev Post is running an article that the water supply will soon be rationed in Kiev.
And third and most important...Where Stands Turkey? Will the Russian's even act if Turkey ( a NOTO member, lets not forget)objects? Maybe. But a big maybe. In 2008 the Russian's achieved a certain respect in the region...but another actual invasion to subjugate the whole country will be an entirely different matter with huge risks for the Bear.
Maybe the Turks have already raised an objection in a way - reports are a large portion of their Black Sea Fleet is underway also. That’s a lot of naval hardware out a sea at one time.
From a Russian prospective there is a lot to gain and not too much to lose IMO. They are going to kill a number of birds with one stone.
1) It will put all the former Warsaw satellite countries on notice that Russia is back. The Crimea and the Baltic countries cannot like the trend developing.
2) Probably force Ukraine back to the negotiating table on a number of issues, least of which is the rights for use of the port at Sevastpool (sp).
3) If they keep the Roki tunnel intact, they will have a land route to support and supply large armored formations south of the Caucaus Mountains (historically and strategically significant).
4) Control of the gas pipelines in Georgia and would place a further stranglehold over the supply of energy to Europe.
the downside risks I see are minimal: All the Georgian armed forces are going to do is act as a speed bump. I suppose a Grozny like insurgency is not out of the question. Likelihood of direct interference from the US is practically zero. The one question mark, as Genesis rightly points out, is how is Europe going to react.
Maybe the Turks have already raised an objection in a way - reports are a large portion of their Black Sea Fleet is underway also. That’s a lot of naval hardware out a sea at one time.
From a Russian prospective there is a lot to gain and not too much to lose IMO. They are going to kill a number of birds with one stone.
1) It will put all the former Warsaw satellite countries on notice that Russia is back. The Crimea and the Baltic countries cannot like the trend developing.
2) Probably force Ukraine back to the negotiating table on a number of issues, least of which is the rights for use of the port at Sevastpool (sp).
3) If they keep the Roki tunnel intact, they will have a land route to support and supply large armored formations south of the Caucaus Mountains (historically and strategically significant).
4) Control of the gas pipelines in Georgia and would place a further stranglehold over the supply of energy to Europe.
the downside risks I see are minimal: All the Georgian armed forces are going to do is act as a speed bump. I suppose a Grozny like insurgency is not out of the question. Likelihood of direct interference from the US is practically zero. The one question mark is how is Europe going to react.
maybe something, may be nothing -
http://weartv.com/template/inews_wire/wires.international/39b6d484-www.weartv.com.shtml
Gunfire exchanged on Georgia-South Ossetia border
April 23, 2009 07:04 EDT
TBILISI, Georgia (AP) — Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia have reported gunfire exchanges along their tense administrative border. No casualties have been reported.
The reported shootings occurred before talks with international monitors Thursday on efforts to diffuse tensions in the region following last year’s war between Georgia and Russia, which backs South Ossetia.
Georgia’s Interior Ministry says a police post in the village of Plavi came under automatic weapon fire for several minutes Wednesday night.
South Ossetia’s separatist government says about two hours later heavy-caliber weapons were fired on the village of Otrev, where about 15 families live. A government spokeswoman says villagers sought safety in nearby woods.