"Does Obama Have a North Korea Policy?" (Tough S. Korean EDITORIAL today)

Appearing on Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the United States "was not prepared to do anything about" North Korea's rocket launch, which is expected to take place in the coming days. Gates' latest comments differ from what he said on Feb. 10, that the U.S. could intercept North Korea's missile "if necessary." On Mar. 19, Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, said the U.S. is "fully prepared" to shoot down the missile and added that the U.S. military has the capability to do it.

Judging from the situation so far, the U.S. administration appears to have decided it would be difficult to take any measures against a North Korean missile launch other than discussing it with the UN Security Council. And the Security Council is unlikely to impose new sanctions on North Korea, so the most plausible outcome could be a low-level censure, such as a declaration by the host country of the council criticizing the launch.

This would be very disappointing for a large number of South Koreans, who had hoped the U.S. administration would either prevent the satellite launch by engaging in strong diplomatic efforts, or be followed by a concerted international move demonstrating the resolve not to condone such acts.

This would spread the view among both North and South Koreans, as well as the international community, that the U.S. has no magic formula either. Fundamentally, it would exacerbate confusion and suspicions over the Obama administration’s North Korea policy.

After meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi in Washington on Mar. 11, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the ultimate goal was to get rid of North Korea's nuclear program and added that the U.S. had many options to deal with a North Korean missile launch. Clinton said efforts would still be made to resume the six-party talks, which have been stalled since October 2007.

But the U.S. Defense Department appears to have a different view. Gates said Sunday the six-party talks had made no progress and that this was a source of significant concern. He also voiced skepticism about a purely diplomatic solution, saying he believes the success rate is higher when economic sanctions are used, whether they target North Korea or Iran.

As demonstrated by those contrasting comments, the broad framework of North Korea policy within the Obama administration has yet to be formulated clearly. The basic direction, a consultation system for North Korea affairs within the administration and a cooperative network with Congress, all remain unclear, while the State Department has yet to appoint an assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs. This is all happening while the Obama administration reviews North Korea policy.

As if it were catching the Obama administration off its guard, North Korea is seeking to up the ante by staging the so-called satellite launch, which is a ploy, according to Secretary Gates, to develop an inter-continental ballistic missile. With no significant leverage at its disposal, South Korea is simply sitting by with its eyes fixed on Washington.

This helplessness cannot continue indefinitely. Seoul and Washington need to hurry up and produce a set of basic principles and at least a rough blueprint of how they intend to deal with North Korea over next four years. If there is not enough time to do this at the Apr. 2 summit in London, they need to set up another meeting as soon as possible. If they fail to do this, there will be no end to North Korea's antics.

I read this in Korean. I did not expect them to translate it so fast. Here is the original:

[사설] 오바마 정권의 대북(對北)정책이 정말 있긴 있는가

미국의 로버트 게이츠 국방장관은 29일 폭스 뉴스 TV에서, 며칠 후로 예상되는 북한의 '인공위성 발사'에 대해 "우리는 어떠한 준비도 하지 않고 있다"고 밝혔다. 자신이 2월 10일 "필요하다면" 북한 미사일을 요격할 수 있다고 했던 말과는 차이가 있다. 열흘 전(19일)에는 티머시 키팅 태평양 사령관도 의회에서 북한의 미사일 발사에 "대응할 태세를 갖출 것"이라며 "미국은 (요격) 능력을 갖고 있다"고 말했었다.

지금까지의 정황을 종합하면, 미국 행정부는 북한이 미사일을 발사하더라도 유엔 안보리에서 논의하는 것 외에는 이렇다할 제재를 취하기 어렵다는 결론을 내린 듯하다. 안보리에서는 새로운 제재 결의가 쉽지 않을 전망이고, 의장국 성명 등 좀 더 낮은 수준의 비난으로 낙착될 공산이 커 보인다.

실제로 이렇게 된다면, 미국이 강력한 예방외교로 위성 발사를 막거나, 아니면 북한이 발사를 강행할 경우 국제사회의 규범이 엄존함을 보여줄 것으로 기대했던 상당수 한국인들에게는 실망스러운 결과가 된다.

이는 한반도의 남·북쪽과 모든 국제사회에 '미국도 별수 없다'는 인식을 퍼뜨리게 될 것이고, 근본적으로 오바마 행정부의 대북 정책 방향에 관한 의문과 혼란을 확산시키게 될 것이다.

힐러리 클린턴 국무장관은 지난 11일 워싱턴에서 양제츠 중국 외교부장과 회담 후, "북한 비핵화가 지상(至上) 목표"라면서, "북한이 미사일을 발사한다면 우리에겐 가능한 여러 대응 방안이 있으며, 그렇더라도 6자회담 재개를 추진할 것"이라고 밝혔다. 미사일 문제와 대북 대화 추진은 별개라는 말이었다.

그러나 미국 국방부의 시각엔 차이가 있는 듯하다. 게이츠 장관은 29일 "근래에 6자 회담이 어떠한 진전도 이룩하지 못했다"면서 "대단히 우려된다"고 말했다. 그는 특히 "솔직히 말해 나는, 북한에서든 이란에서든 외교를 통한 성공 가능성보다 경제 제재를 통한 성공 가능성이 더 크다고 본다"며, '외교를 통한 해결'에 회의를 나타냈다.

이렇듯 오바마 행정부의 대북 정책의 큰 테두리가 아직 행정부 내에서도 뚜렷이 형성되지 못한 단계다. 국무부에서조차 동아태차관보가 임명되지 못한 채 대북정책 재검토가 진행되는 등 대북 정책의 방향성과 행정부 내의 협의 체계, 의회와의 협력 구조 등 전반이 불투명하다.

북 한은 미국의 이런 허(虛)를 찌르기라도 하듯, '대륙 간 탄도탄을 개발하기 위한 기술적 속임수인 위성 발사'(게이츠 국방장관)로 '핵'의 협상 가치를 더욱 높이려 들고 있다. 한국은 미국만 쳐다볼 뿐, 현실적으로 사용할 지렛대라고는 전혀 없는 실정이다.

이 런 속수무책(束手無策)의 상황이 마냥 지속되어서는 안 된다. 이명박 정부와 오바마 행정부는 적어도 앞으로 4년간, 두 대통령의 재임이 겹치는 동안에 북한을 어떻게 다룰지에 관한 기본 원칙과 대강의 청사진을 시급히 마련해야 한다. 4월 2일 런던 한미 정상회담에서 시간이 부족하다면 조속히 다른 기회를 마련해서라도 필요한 합의와 방략을 만들어내지 않으면, 북한의 공갈외교에 일희일비하며 끌려다니는 일이 끝없이 이어지게 될 것이다.

Thank for the ping, American in Tokyo.

I saw your thread and went exploring. Here is Obama’s foreign policy as is stated on his website now.

Note: The following text is a quote:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/foreign_policy/

THE AGENDA • FOREIGN POLICY
THE AGENDA

Civil Rights

Defense

Disabilities

Economy

Education

Energy & Environment

Ethics

Family

Fiscal

Foreign Policy

Health Care

Homeland Security

Immigration

Iraq

Poverty

Rural

Seniors & Social Security

Service

Taxes

Technology

Urban Policy

Veterans

Women

Additional Issues

FOREIGN POLICY
President Obama and Vice President Biden will renew America’s security and standing in the world through a new era of American leadership. The Obama-Biden foreign policy will end the war in Iraq responsibly, finish the fight against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan, secure nuclear weapons and loose nuclear materials from terrorists, and renew American diplomacy to support strong alliances and to seek a lasting peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Afghanistan and Pakistan

Afghanistan: Obama and Biden will refocus American resources on the greatest threat to our security — the resurgence of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They will increase our troop levels in Afghanistan, press our allies in NATO to do the same, and dedicate more resources to revitalize Afghanistan’s economic development. Obama and Biden will demand the Afghan government do more, including cracking down on corruption and the illicit opium trade.
Pakistan: Obama and Biden will increase nonmilitary aid to Pakistan and hold them accountable for security in the border region with Afghanistan.
Nuclear Weapons

A Record of Results: The gravest danger to the American people is the threat of a terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon and the spread of nuclear weapons to dangerous regimes. Obama has taken bipartisan action to secure nuclear weapons and materials:
He joined Senator Dick Lugar (R-In) in passing a law to help the United States and our allies detect and stop the smuggling of weapons of mass destruction throughout the world.
He joined Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Ne) to introduce a bill that seeks to prevent nuclear terrorism, reduce global nuclear arsenals, and stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
Secure Loose Nuclear Materials from Terrorists: Obama and Biden will secure all loose nuclear materials in the world within four years. While working to secure existing stockpiles of nuclear material, Obama and Biden will negotiate a verifiable global ban on the production of new nuclear weapons material. This will deny terrorists the ability to steal or buy loose nuclear materials.
Strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Obama and Biden will crack down on nuclear proliferation by strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty so that countries like North Korea and Iran that break the rules will automatically face strong international sanctions.
Move Toward a Nuclear Free World: Obama and Biden will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and pursue it. Obama and Biden will always maintain a strong deterrent as long as nuclear weapons exist. But they will take several steps down the long road toward eliminating nuclear weapons. They will stop the development of new nuclear weapons; work with Russia to take U.S. and Russian ballistic missiles off hair trigger alert; seek dramatic reductions in U.S. and Russian stockpiles of nuclear weapons and material; and set a goal to expand the U.S.-Russian ban on intermediate-range missiles so that the agreement is global.
Iran

Diplomacy: Barack Obama supports tough and direct diplomacy with Iran without preconditions. Now is the time to use the power of American diplomacy to pressure Iran to stop their illicit nuclear program, support for terrorism, and threats toward Israel. Obama and Biden will offer the Iranian regime a choice. If Iran abandons its nuclear program and support for terrorism, we will offer incentives like membership in the World Trade Organization, economic investments, and a move toward normal diplomatic relations. If Iran continues its troubling behavior, we will step up our economic pressure and political isolation. In carrying out this diplomacy, we will coordinate closely with our allies and proceed with careful preparation. Seeking this kind of comprehensive settlement with Iran is our best way to make progress.
Energy Security

Achieving Energy Security: Obama will put America on a path to energy independence by investing $150 billion in renewable and alternative energy over the next ten years — an investment that will create millions of jobs along the way. He’ll also make the U.S. a leader in the global effort to combat climate change by leading a new international global warming partnership.
Renewing American Diplomacy

Renew our Alliances: Obama and Biden will rebuild our alliances to meet the common challenges of the 21st century. America is strongest when we act alongside strong partners. Now is the time for a new era of international cooperation that strengthens old partnerships and builds new ones to confront the common challenges of the 21st century — terrorism and nuclear weapons; climate change and poverty; genocide and disease.
Talk to our Foes and Friends: Obama and Biden will pursue tough, direct diplomacy without preconditions with all nations, friend and foe. They will do the careful preparation necessary, but will signal that America is ready to come to the table and is willing to lead. And if America is willing to come to the table, the world will be more willing to rally behind American leadership to deal with challenges like confronting terrorism and Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Obama and Biden will make progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a key diplomatic priority from day one. They will make a sustained push — working with Israelis and Palestinians — to achieve the goal of two states, a Jewish state in Israel and a Palestinian state, living side by side in peace and security.
Expand our Diplomatic Presence: To make diplomacy a priority, Obama and Biden will stop shuttering consulates and start opening them in difficult corners of the world — particularly in Africa. They will expand our foreign service, and develop our civilian capacity to work alongside the military.
Fight Global Poverty: Obama and Biden will embrace the Millennium Development Goal of cutting extreme poverty and hunger around the world in half by 2015, and they will double our foreign assistance to achieve that goal. This will help the world’s weakest states build healthy and educated communities, reduce poverty, develop markets, and generate wealth.
Seek New Partnerships in Asia: Obama and Biden will forge a more effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements, occasional summits, and ad hoc arrangements, such as the six-party talks on North Korea. They will maintain strong ties with allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia; work to build an infrastructure with countries in East Asia that can promote stability and prosperity; and work to ensure that China plays by international rules.
Israel

Ensure a Strong U.S.-Israel Partnership: Barack Obama and Joe Biden strongly support the U.S.-Israel relationship, and believe that our first and incontrovertible commitment in the Middle East must be to the security of Israel, America’s strongest ally in the region. They support this closeness, and have stated that the United States will never distance itself from Israel.
Support Israel’s Right to Self Defense: During the July 2006 Lebanon war, Barack Obama stood up strongly for Israel’s right to defend itself from Hezbollah raids and rocket attacks, cosponsoring a Senate resolution against Iran and Syria’s involvement in the war, and insisting that Israel should not be pressured into a ceasefire that did not deal with the threat of Hezbollah missiles. He and Joe Biden believe strongly in Israel’s right to protect its citizens.
Support Foreign Assistance to Israel: Barack Obama and Joe Biden have consistently supported foreign assistance to Israel. They defend and support the annual foreign aid package that involves both military and economic assistance to Israel and have advocated increased foreign aid budgets to ensure that these funding priorities are met. They have called for continuing U.S. cooperation with Israel in the development of missile defense systems.
Bipartisanship and Openness

A Record of Bringing People Together: In the Senate, Obama has worked with Republicans and Democrats to advance important policy initiatives on securing weapons of mass destruction and conventional weapons, increasing funding for nonproliferation, and countering instability in Congo.
Consultative Group: Obama and Biden will convene a bipartisan Consultative Group of leading members of Congress to foster better executive-legislative relations and bipartisan unity on foreign policy. This group will be comprised of the congressional leadership of both political parties, and the chair and ranking members of the Armed Services, Foreign Relations, Intelligence, and Appropriations Committees. This group will meet with the president once a month to review foreign policy priorities, and will be consulted in advance of military action.
Getting Politics out of Intelligence: Obama will insulate the Director of National Intelligence from political pressure by giving the DNI a fixed term, like the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Obama and Biden will seek consistency and integrity at the top of our intelligence community — not just a political ally.
Change the Culture of Secrecy: Obama will institute a National Declassification Center to make declassification secure but routine, efficient, and cost-effective.
Engaging the American People on Foreign Policy: Obama and Biden will bring foreign policy decisions directly to the people by requiring their national security officials to have periodic national broadband town hall meetings to discuss foreign policy. Obama will personally deliver Your Weekly Address via webcast.

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