Posted on 03/02/2009 2:50:43 PM PST by presidio9
For those who have endured this winter's frigid temperatures and today's heavy snowstorm in the Northeast, the concept of global warming may seem, well, almost wishful.
But climate is known to be variable -- a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn't mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.
Earth's climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.
"This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn't have one."
Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a "super El Nino event." It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.
How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.
The discrepancy gets to the heart of one of the toughest problems in climate science -- identifying the difference between natural variability (like the occasional March snowstorm) from human-induced change.
But just what's causing the cooling is a mystery. Sinking water currents in the north Atlantic Ocean could be sucking heat down into the depths. Or an overabundance of tropical clouds may be reflecting more of the sun's energy than usual back out into space.
"It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970s was due to a free variation in climate," Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. "Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again."
Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.
"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. "Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."
“A tautology is a tautology”...is a tautology. :)
4 = 4 is a tautology and so is 2 + 2 = 4.
Sometimes they are trivial and sometimes it takes a little work to realize that the 2 expressions are indeed the same, the definition of a tautology.
stupid sun nut, you “sun is the center of the solar system freaks” are so nuts.
Everyone knows the earth warms due to the exhalation of politicians.
“Wow... these guys are amazing! THIRTY YEARS of cooling... all the while, still believing that CO2 is the culprit behind potential warming.”
They have faith in the Great Pumpkin’s return.
The sun only gets one mention in the entire article, nust not have been written by an objective writer or scientist. Imagine that.
“Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive.”
Where does the radiative forcing hide out during the 30 years of cooling? I want to go there, now.
This is like saying that if I put hot food directly into the freezer, once it has totally frozen, it’s former heat is still lurking somewhere. I hope it isn’t adjacent to the ice cream.
"When the climate kicks back out of this state, we'll have explosive warming," Swanson said. "Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive."
It's obvious that no matter the evidence that CO2 is not the culprit, they will not back off their man-caused global warming mantra. Like all politically driven scientists, they won't let new facts change their environmentally driven and biased conclusions.
“global temperatures have flatlined since 2001”
Flatlined? Try DECLINED.
I know this is on a tangent but I've always like the simple fact that just because B followed A does not necessarily mean that A caused B. In modern liberal politics it is an oft used, convenient assumption/claim that proves false when examined in detail.
My wife will be pleased if it’s next to the Pralines & Cream.... then, it’ll be easier for her to pick out all the pecans and candy!
These guys are grasping at straws... because, they can see that the WORLD is not believing them anymore.
"Conspiring" to screw up our socialist political agenda is more like it.
Hold on, Betty. Do you mean this has to do with.. science?
Sure, Swanson, sure. Why should we believe your wild-assed guesses? You don't have the slightest idea what the temperature is going to be next Sunday, never mind about 30 years from now.
>> Michael Reilly, you’re a funny spewin’ human kinda’ guy.
Sorry Michael Reilly, it was Kyle Swanson who was to be pasted from the clipboard.
I notice that the Discovery Channel REFUSED (then) and REFUSES (even now) to even talk to a person not entirely committed to the global warming religion (er, hypocrazy.)
Yup. When a politician (including many scientists nowadays) claims nice even numbers like "three decades" or "5 million new jobs" or "will cost 3 billion dollars" you can rest assure that there were no real calculations made. It's the same BS from both parties.
This is like saying that if I put hot food directly into the freezer, once it has totally frozen, it’s former heat is still lurking somewhere. I hope it isn’t adjacent to the ice cream.
Great analogy!
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