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China: Can Smoot-Hawley only happen in the US?
China Financial Markets ^ | 02/26/09 | Michael Pettis

Posted on 02/26/2009 9:37:08 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster

Can Smoot-Hawley only happen in the US?

February 26th, 2009 by Michael

Yesterday in a meeting I was asked by an investor why, even while I have been writing maniacally about the crucial importance of global cooperation, I was so consistently pessimistic about the possibility of the major economies arriving at a “grand bargain” that will minimize over the long term the cost of the current crisis. I think, in fact, that a nasty fight over trade is very probable and I worry that not only will trade conflict come as a huge shock to China’s economy, but also that Chinese actions and public statements are actually contributing more to that probability than all the buy-America, buy-Europe talk filling the air.

Let me pluck one reason from the headlines of today’s People‘s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the country’s ruling party. The article, titled “Buy American can’t save the US economy”, is based on interviews with a number of Chinese commentators. One question:

Why does the US, which has always advocated trade liberalization, put forward such a clause? Can the “Buy American” provision offer effective solutions to the US’ economic problems? What impacts will the implementation of this economic plan produce?

/snip

The US cannot give us another Smoot-Hawley. In 2009 only China and Germany are really in a position to enact the current version of Smoot-Hawley – to engineer polices that expand their massive export of overcapacity or, what amounts to the same thing, their massive import of demand – and if you want to figure out who might be doing it, you need only to look at the direction of trade surpluses.

(Excerpt) Read more at mpettis.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: buyamerican; china; exportsubsidy; smoothawley
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1 posted on 02/26/2009 9:37:08 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; PAR35; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; happygrl; ...

Ping!


2 posted on 02/26/2009 9:37:29 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

It’s time to move all manufacturing back on our own shores...


3 posted on 02/26/2009 9:42:18 PM PST by Star Traveler
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To: Star Traveler
It’s time to move all manufacturing back on our own shores...

AND throw out the foreign workers

4 posted on 02/26/2009 9:43:29 PM PST by clamper1797 (FUBO ... The Kenyan Lincoln)
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To: clamper1797

Yeah, no more of those special work visas to easily replace American workers. It’s time to concentrate on American workers...


5 posted on 02/26/2009 9:47:13 PM PST by Star Traveler
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To: TigerLikesRooster

It’s a rather pathetic read.


6 posted on 02/26/2009 9:53:49 PM PST by allmost
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To: Star Traveler
So do you support massive inflation, or paying American workers miniscule wages? Either way, you're re-tooling the economy to create an artificial result, much the same way Obama is trying to artificially prevent foreclosures and bankruptcies, at great cost to the economy and our grandchildren. Further, said re-tooling will never re-create our previous situation, where we exported most of our production. Nobody else will buy our goods at our inflated prices, and thus these newly-created manufacturing plants will lack the customer base required to make them successful or profitable.

But don't let simple economics stop you from suggesting a course of action that is so inefficient and wasteful. It certainly doesn't stop our elected representatives!

7 posted on 02/26/2009 10:01:50 PM PST by Teacher317 (wo xue zhong wen)
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To: Teacher317

I don’t think it’s in the best interests of the U.S. to have manufacturing in other countries and especially in some countries like China, the Communists, who want to go to war with us.


8 posted on 02/26/2009 10:03:58 PM PST by Star Traveler
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To: TigerLikesRooster

In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the... Anyone? ...the Great Depression, passed the... Anyone? ...the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act, which... raised or lowered...anyone? raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.

9 posted on 02/26/2009 10:12:04 PM PST by Ken H
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To: clamper1797

What American company can afford the taxes and regulations to manufacture in this corporate wasteland. Ohbummer is only going to make it far worse.

Pray for America


10 posted on 02/26/2009 10:14:41 PM PST by bray (Welcome to the USSA!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
It seems the fight over selling American beef to Europe is on the way to a trade war over European motorcycles. The threat on the table is a 100% tariff on European motorcycles and scooters. Any stock currently on the showroom floor is exempt. Some of the affected names include Vespa, Piaggio, Aprilia, BMW, Husqvarna and KTM.

The 2007 Piaggio BV500 out the door price is about $6600 right now. Double that. Now you're in the price range of a low end Harley or mid range Japanese cruiser. The dealers of European motorcycles will be put out of business over an agricultural conflict. Totally stupid. No surprise when politicians are involved.

11 posted on 02/26/2009 10:24:13 PM PST by Myrddin
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To: Teacher317; Star Traveler

The way to return the US to the glory days of manufacturing is to have a new Hitler take over germany, start a war that destroys europe, england and russia and have the same happen in japan which destroys japan, china, and the rest of east asia.

Then presto, the US becomes the economic superpower of days gone by.


12 posted on 02/26/2009 10:32:31 PM PST by staytrue (YES WE CAN, (everyone should get in the practice of saying it, it will soon be mandatory))
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Gross Domestic Product (ref. 1929 dollars in millions)

Year    GDP

1929   101,444
1930    91,513
1931    84,300
1932    70,682
1933    68,337
1934    74,609
1935    85,806
1936    95,798
1937   103,917
1938    96,670
1939   103,736
1940   112,961
1941   126,237

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Series 08166.




13 posted on 02/26/2009 10:51:55 PM PST by familyop (As painful as the global laxative might be, maybe our "one world" needs a good cleaning.)
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To: staytrue

The BV500 is pretty sweet. I went to the vespa center and checked them all out. Too dangerous here though.

The BV500 engine probably sounds better after it’s warmed up. Because I thought it sounded a bit on the chattery side. But hey it has a top speed of 110mph, not bad for a 500cc single cylinder engine. IT’s way too expensive.


14 posted on 02/26/2009 10:52:10 PM PST by bicyclerepair (Thank you Mr. Robinson for FR, from Ft. Lauderdale Florida)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Compensation from before World War I through the Great Depression

by Robert VanGiezen and Albert E. Schwenk
Bureau of Labor Statistics

John T. Dunlop and Walter Galenson, eds., Labor in the Twentieth Century (New York, Academic Press, 1978), p. 30.

Dunlop and Galenson, p. 27.

Year Unemployment rate

1923-29

3.3

1930

8.9

1931

15.9

1932

23.6

1933

24.9

1934

21.7

1935

20.1

1936

17.0

1937

14.3

1938

19.0

1939

17.2

1940

14.6

1941

9.9

1942

4.7



15 posted on 02/26/2009 10:53:22 PM PST by familyop (As painful as the global laxative might be, maybe our "one world" needs a good cleaning.)
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To: Star Traveler

I would love to see that happen! I could use a job.

I don’t think it will tho, as I think they left for a reason... Over regulation and over taxation. Well, that’s two reasons, sorry.

Even if they did come back, they would only be hiring illegals to keep the costs down and stay competitive.


16 posted on 02/26/2009 10:55:45 PM PST by KarenMarie
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To: Ken H
"the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act,...Did it work? Anyone? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression."

That's incorrect. The recent anti-American propaganda was based solely on rashes of logical fallacies and has been debunked. See the evidence in comment #13 and comment #15.


17 posted on 02/26/2009 11:00:52 PM PST by familyop (As painful as the global laxative might be, maybe our "one world" needs a good cleaning.)
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To: Star Traveler; clamper1797
I don’t think it’s in the best interests of the U.S. to have manufacturing in other countries and especially in some countries like China, the Communists, who want to go to war with us.

Pat Buchanan was right about this years ago and I supported him for years. He is very bad on Israel and the Jihad.... But right on most else

This is very simple and is called economic nationalism. 
American do their own work instead of running up ruinous trade deficits ....And importing foreigners to do work
But there are/was tremendous profits in doing the exact opposite and selling out American workers and entrepreneurs. We are reaching the end game on this

18 posted on 02/26/2009 11:03:17 PM PST by dennisw (Archimedes--- Give me a place to stand, and I will move the Earth)
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To: familyop

“Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act” = die hard myth!

Perpetrated by free traitors like the loony libertarian Cato(mite) Institute. Which gets huge corporate contributions


19 posted on 02/26/2009 11:05:33 PM PST by dennisw (Archimedes--- Give me a place to stand, and I will move the Earth)
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To: dennisw
"Perpetrated by free traitors like the loony libertarian Cato(mite) Institute. Which gets huge corporate contributions"

Agreed, and which lies so desperately, that it even reverses part of the name of the Act in its rhetoric-filled rants in an effort to make it a little more difficult for its pro-American enemies (us) to find evidence of the truth. ...didn't work, though.


20 posted on 02/26/2009 11:12:05 PM PST by familyop (As painful as the global laxative might be, maybe our "one world" needs a good cleaning.)
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