Snowe: My Party Has Changed

AsMaineGoes.com ^ | February 15, 2009 | Scott Fish

[bogeybob]

The Senior Senator from Maine.

[Impy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2127018/posts?q=1&;page=51#56

Is that what you’re looking for?

[Impy]

The 06 and 08 Senate races are a disaster as big as electing Obama. Imagine 63 rats instead. Add a few RINOS and we have a 1/3 of the Senate.

[yongin]

I think we hit rock bottom in the House. If we recruit decent candidates for the House, we could have a net gain of 20. I don’t think we can capture control of the House. We dug a hole too deep to get out of in one election cycle.

[Impy]

It’s hard to imagine if you look at it race by race and try to find 40+ pickups.

But if we can actually get 48-50% of the total votes like in in 1994-2004, who knows.

While they were funded many of the last 2 classes of rats are hardly impressive figures, they road the waves into office. Maybe Barone is right.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Thanks, I believe it is (I may have written one separately from that, however). Boy, I was really in a rotten mood when I wrote it up, just two days after the False Messiah’s coronation. Aside from a few points, it looks largely unchanged. 2010 just looks really lousy for us in the Senate.

The only states we have a shot in are CO (weak Dem appointee facing potential ugly primary), CT (damaged Dodd), IL (ditto with CO), NV (Reid), NY (ditto CO & IL), ND (only if Hoeven runs), and WV (if Byrd retires or dies and the Manchin appointee faces Capito).

But we conversely are in a precarious position in KY (if Bunning remains), LA (Vitter dicey), MO (where Robin Carnahan has been coronated and we have a potentially ugly Sarah Steelman-Roy Blunt primary), NH (no clear Gregg successor), NC (jinxed seat), OH (GOP disadvantage and Portman untested), PA (damaged Specter).

We’re almost going to have to sweep the “potential targets” for us to hold even, and if we hold them all, we may get as high as 48 or 49. Best case scenario. Worst case scenario, we goose egg the whole kit and kaboodle (unlikely) and we get down to 34 or 35 seats (and yes, that is possible, and the last time we dropped that low was in the mid ‘60s). We’re functioning at a de facto 38 seats right now, so the Dems can operate as they please in the Senate with the RINO apostates A.S.S. (Arlen-Susan-Snowe). It’s imperative we win a net minimum 3 seats with non-RINOs.

[yongin]

A filibuster proof Senate is possible after 2010. Shudder. Then we’ll see the Change the Messiah believes in.

Rush is correct. We need to hope people to see the stimulus plan as a failure in the next 6 months if we want an opposition party. If people think the stimulus plan is a success, then America will embrace socialism for good.

[fieldmarshaldj]

There already IS a filibuster-proof Senate. 58 Democrats (including Lieberman and Sanders) + 3 RINOs. That’s 61.

[darkangel82]

We lost Conrad Burns’ seat in 06 the same waywe lost the Gilchrest seat in Maryland last year, with a “libertarian” stalking horse taking votes away, although it should not have been that close. We also lost the Stevens seat by failing to dislodge him in a primary.

[yongin]

Have you read David Frum’s New Majority site? That site is the fan club of Specter, Collins, and Snowe. The posters there claim that Rush and Palin are the real RINOs and Arnold, Bloomberg, and Giuliani are the true Reaganites.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Those were different problems. Gilchrest deliberately sabotaged Andy Harris and instructed his hardcore supporters to vote Democrat. In the case of Burns, the man was outright smeared with claims of wrongdoing, and he simply wasn’t guilty (except maybe of being un-PC, which the execrable Wikipedia entry goes over in obscene proctological detail, for which no Democrat would ever receive remotely the same treatment), exactly as he maintained. He shouldn’t have lost, but a lot of us were panicking that he should’ve stepped aside. Both of Montana’s Senators ought to be Republican, not two leftist moonbats. I think we can take Tester out in ‘12, but it’s sad the state has to put up with these punks for umpteen more years (that and the fact we couldn’t take out Baucus last November with a decent candidate).

[fieldmarshaldj]

No, I wouldn’t waste my time reading such ludicrous garbage (unless it’s intended as parody ?).

[darkangel82]

The RATS pulled a Dirty Trick in the primary, and our nominee turned out to be a former Green who is older than Stevens. Close the damn things already.

[Impy]

I got mildly attacked by a couple freepers for daring to suggest Vitter might not be the strongest candidate. Apparently Yankee dogs such as myself should hold their tongue about Southern races on a political discussion forum and “clean up (their) own state first”. :p

A daily Kos “Independent” poll shows Dorgan thwamping (not a word? screw you spell check) Hoeven. Which I don’t buy for a second. Rick Clayburgh we saw almost took out Pomeroy in 2002.

Sheets Byrd isn’t up till 2012. It’s about time for a GOP Senator from West Virginia. Would’ve been nice if Rockerf***er had lost in 1984.

I wouldn’t count out (how big a RINO?) Lingle against Elderly Hawaiian Rat #2, if she runs, though I’d figure a ten point win for Akaka.

We need to find decent candidates, and hope for a good year to bolster their chances.

Even if all goes well the next 2 cycles might not be enough to take it back. If things go bad.....1954-1980 was it...

I do hope everyone who worked for the NRSC the last 4 years has been fired...out of a cannon.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I agree that once and for all party primaries need to be closed affairs and no “switching registrations” on the same day (of course, the downside to that is in places where I live where you often have to vote in rodent primaries because there ARE no GOP candidates for office).

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I got mildly attacked by a couple freepers for daring to suggest Vitter might not be the strongest candidate. Apparently Yankee dogs such as myself should hold their tongue about Southern races on a political discussion forum and “clean up (their) own state first”. :p"

I usually consider that a red herring attack, with the exception being if the person doesn't know what they're talking about (and that could hold true even if they happen to live there). But no Congressional/Senate seat is an "island", and they ALL impact us, so we cannot take for granted any of them. If Vitter is the nominee, I'll support him (after all, he was the only one with the balls to unapologetically oppose the Beast for Sec of State, so as far as I can tell, he's about the purest and most unafraid Republican Conservative in the Senate, any unfortunate peccadilloes aside). Right now, I'm not sure whom is the best to replace him. I'm more inclined to support him because we need street fighters. Better a Senator who screws whores than a whore of a Senator f**king us.

"A daily Kos “Independent” poll shows Dorgan thwamping (not a word? screw you spell check) Hoeven. Which I don’t buy for a second. Rick Clayburgh we saw almost took out Pomeroy in 2002."

Neither Dorgan nor Pomeroy have ever truly faced a first-tier opponent. We given these rodents pass after pass. After their votes for Porkulus, it's time we nailed their balls to the wall. Not since 1978 have we had a 2R-1D delegation from ND, and in 2010, we can do it if we have the guts.

"Sheets Byrd isn’t up till 2012."

Remember, my comment was predicated on the fact he may not live to 2012. I would lay even odds he will buy the farm either this year or next, and we will have an excellent opportunity to finally get his seat. Not since 1956 have we won a Senate seat in the state, the longest currently of any state going Democrat (even MA & NJ went GOP as recently as 1972, HI in 1970). MA will likely have a special election in 2010, because Ted Kennedy will be dead before the year is out. I'll be amazed if he lives another 6 months. Had that termite Sherrod Brown not been able to make the cloture vote, it's doubtful they could've gotten Ted off his bed to make it to the Senate floor (come to think of it, they probably would've had to wheel him on a stretcher).

"It’s about time for a GOP Senator from West Virginia. Would’ve been nice if Rockerf***er had lost in 1984."

Arch Moore nearly took out Jennings Randolph in 1978 (who only won by a hair), and that prompted Randolph's retirement. Had Arch won, he'd have probably held onto the seat in 1984 (although Jay might've tried to buy the seat, but Arch beat him in 1972 when he did just that).

"I wouldn’t count out (how big a RINO?) Lingle against Elderly Hawaiian Rat #2, if she runs, though I’d figure a ten point win for Akaka."

Akaka has only had one serious GOP challenger in his career, Congresswoman Pat Saiki, in 1990, but he's going to be 88 next year, and that has to give Hawaiians pause. Does make one wish that Hiram Fong hadn't hung it up in 1976 when he was only 70 (and Akaka was 66 when he started his Senate career), especially given that he lived to almost 98 and was competent from what I understand (I communicated with him in the late '90s). I think if she targeted Akaka on effectiveness, and on Porkulus (I presume she opposed it, at least I hope she did), she might manage an upset win. We've just had such weak candidates for federal office for years (it's really a shame that health problems forced House Minority Leader Quentin Kawananakoa from running for the HI-1 in '98, since he was considered potentially popular enough that his withdrawal supposedly had enough of an adverse impact on the Governor's race that Lingle lost by a heartbreakingly narrow margin). In Lingle's favor, however, is that she won by the single largest percentage in '06 for the Governorship of any candidate since statehood (63-35%). Republicans (when not splitting the vote) have actually done fairly well in Gubernatorial races over the years (we actually got over 45% of the vote in losing races in 1966, 1974, 1986 & in 1994 the combined Fasi & Saiki vote was 60% to Cayetano's 37% - and Cayetano's "win" was the second lowest percentage of the vote for ANY Democrat candidate, well, lowest, until 2006).

"We need to find decent candidates, and hope for a good year to bolster their chances. Even if all goes well the next 2 cycles might not be enough to take it back. If things go bad.....1954-1980 was it..."

Well, there's always a revolution... might have to do that anyway before long.

"I do hope everyone who worked for the NRSC the last 4 years has been fired...out of a cannon."

Firing people isn't necessarily the answer... it's firing the BAD people. Sacking everybody is easy, weeding through to keep the good ones requires a bit more work.

[Impy]

But no Congressional/Senate seat is an "island", and they ALL impact us.

That's what I said. That was met by attacks on Illinois ("I can't think of a state that hurt us more") like it's all my fault. He was pulling stuff out of his rear, choosing to attack me rather than just disagree.

I don't give 1/4 of a crap what tickles Vitter's fancy be it hookers or wearing depends for fun so long as he votes the right way. I just worry cause some voters do care, I see a parallel with Tim Hutchinson, who may still be there if he hadn't left his wife. They could find a nice "family values" fauxcon rat to take him on.

But as I said if he's the nominee he has my 100% support, hopefully LA voters will be worrying about the issues in 2010.

Neither Dorgan nor Pomeroy have ever truly faced a first-tier opponent.

Well Clayburgh was. I don't know who if anyone will brace Pomeroy next year.

Not since 1978 have we had a 2R-1D delegation from ND, and in 2010, we can do it if we have the guts.

And it hasn't been all GOP since 1957-58, and that included NPL RINOs.

Remember, my comment was predicated on the fact he may not live to 2012. I would lay even odds he will buy the farm either this year or next,

Oh you think he'll kick huh. I fear he could dodder on. But Kennedy will die soon. The draft Myth movement will start up and he'll spurn them.

I think if she targeted Akaka on effectiveness, and on Porkulus (I presume she opposed it, at least I hope she did)

This article indicates she does oppose it. It also says Palin is for it.

it's really a shame that health problems forced House Minority Leader Quentin Kawananakoa from running for the HI-1 in '98,

The Prince, I've heard of him, he lost the primary in 06. He might have won in 1998. Ambercrombie had almost lost in 1996.

since he was considered potentially popular enough that his withdrawal supposedly had enough of an adverse impact on the Governor's race that Lingle lost by a heartbreakingly narrow margin

Woah, really. Too bad it's seems to have faded to point he couldn't win a GOP primary.

In Lingle's favor, however, is that she won by the single largest percentage in '06 for the Governorship of any candidate since statehood (63-35%)

Oh really, good, I haven't seen the results prior to '78.

the combined Fasi & Saiki vote was 60%

Fasi, the former rat. He should have run in the GOP primary if he wanted to be Governor. He sounds like a swelled head type to me.

Well, there's always a revolution... might have to do that anyway before long.

I have a switchblade (illegal to carry in Chi-town).

[nyconse]

You are exactly correct...this happened just as you say. Freepers don’t understand that this is the real issue...I have a hard time explaining. You did a much better job. This is why I say a move to the right is meaningless unless the GOP congress can establish that they are competent...they have to do more than say no also...develop their own plans and get the word out.

People look at history and see different things according to their belief system. I was trained as a scientist in the old days... put aside personal prejudices and let the data speak. Sometimes it says things you don’t like too. Roosevelt was elected 4 times not because people loved him...he did things that people did not like (trying to pack the Supreme court is one example). However, the GOP was viewed as incompetent thanks to Hoover-who’s policies did not work (especially the fed policies). People starved and many died under Hoover...they did not soon forget. It was 20 years before a GOP president was elected.

[nyconse]

Also, people did not doubt Eisenhower’s competence, he had proved it during the war.

[nyconse]

I think Ohio is very important in presidential elections...no GOP has ever won without Ohio...as for Michigan, I think it’s gone for good after the auto debacle. Florida is also in serious trouble...we start down in the electoral college because we automatically lose New York and California...it’s going to be a tough battle for the GOP. My younger cousins in Virginia have all turned Dem...only the older folks are still GOP.

[nyconse]

I understand the politics, but I still believe if you have repaid your debt to society...then you should not lose your vote...it’s a moral thing to me as it apparently was to Crist.