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A one-in-ten chance of a UK Government default
The Telegraph, London, UK ^ | 2009-01-20 | Edmund Conway

Posted on 01/20/2009 10:02:51 PM PST by rabscuttle385

So markets now reckon the UK stands a one in ten chance of defaulting on its sovereign debt over the next half decade. That, at least, is what the credit default swap on British government securities tells us*.

The CDSs are a measure of the amount investors are paying to insure against the likelihood of the UK defaulting. You have to take them with a pinch of salt, since they are a pretty illiquid and young market, but set against a rather terrifying backdrop they are telling us something profoundly alarming today. Britain's creditworthiness is crumbling.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: debt; default; financialcrisis; globaleconomy; panicof2009; sovereigndebt; uk
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Britain's creditworthiness is crumbling.

The United States is not far behind.

1 posted on 01/20/2009 10:02:51 PM PST by rabscuttle385
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To: PAR35; TigerLikesRooster; bamahead; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; ...
*Ping!*
2 posted on 01/20/2009 10:03:12 PM PST by rabscuttle385 ("If this be treason, then make the most of it!" —Patrick Henry)
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The Money, Banking, and Financial Markets Ping List.

"Money, not morality, is the principle commerce of civilized nations."
—Thomas Jefferson

FR Keywords: moneylist, bankinglist, financelist

Please tag all relevant threads with the aforementioned keywords.

This can be a very high-volume ping list at times.

Ping list jointly pinged by rabscuttle385 and TigerLikesRooster.

To join the ping list:
FReepmail rabscuttle385 with the subject line add  moneylist.
(Stop getting pings by sending the subject line drop moneylist.)


3 posted on 01/20/2009 10:03:26 PM PST by rabscuttle385 ("If this be treason, then make the most of it!" —Patrick Henry)
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To: rabscuttle385

I give it a one in twenty five...


4 posted on 01/20/2009 10:03:54 PM PST by allmost
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To: rabscuttle385

After RBS today, the British government has issues. Not good.


5 posted on 01/20/2009 10:05:39 PM PST by April Lexington (Study the constitution so you know what they are taking away!)
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To: rabscuttle385

Essentially, as I understand it, this can all be traced back to ‘RATS legislating that loans be given to people unqualified to pay them back -— i.e., all about bribing a constituency for votes (meanwhile pocketing kickback $$$$$ a la Dodd & Obongo & Frank)?


6 posted on 01/20/2009 10:08:53 PM PST by steelyourfaith (It's high time for the B.O. Impeachment proceedings to begin.)
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To: rabscuttle385

Many countries are in the same boat. Leftwing spanding freaks, (Republicans too) have put all of us in the very real possibility of a global financial meltdown


7 posted on 01/20/2009 10:10:37 PM PST by GeronL (DAY 1, YEAR 0 - "and when white will embrace what is right". Hate speech on parade in a benediction)
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To: rabscuttle385
"A one-in-ten chance of a UK Government default"

There's much more of a chance than that. Read the numbers behind the following for the real shocker.

UK cannot take Iceland's soft option
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2168480/posts


8 posted on 01/20/2009 11:13:40 PM PST by familyop (combat engineer (combat), National Guard, '89-'96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote, http://falconparty.com/)
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To: rabscuttle385
You wrote “The United States is not far behind.”
Are you speculating or do you have something to base your supposition on?
9 posted on 01/20/2009 11:18:13 PM PST by BellStar (Please God give us another Chance!)
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To: allmost
"I give it a one in twenty five..."

Maybe I should go ahead and post a quote.

UK cannot take Iceland's soft option
The Telegraph ^ | 1/20/2009 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

"The foreign liabilities of the UK banks are $4.4 trillion – or twice annual GDP – according to the Bank of England."


10 posted on 01/20/2009 11:18:23 PM PST by familyop (combat engineer (combat), National Guard, '89-'96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote, http://falconparty.com/)
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To: familyop

They’re supposed to be better with numbers than me, the average Joe. I gone up to Calculus.


11 posted on 01/20/2009 11:21:12 PM PST by allmost
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To: rabscuttle385

“So markets now reckon the UK stands a one in ten chance of defaulting on its sovereign debt over the next half decade. That, at least, is what the credit default swap on British government securities tells us”

that means only one thing: that the govt needs to abolish credit default swaps and everything will be just fine! /sarc


12 posted on 01/20/2009 11:55:13 PM PST by ari-freedom (Hail to the Dork!)
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To: BellStar

yeah...just look at who was just sworn in as president...


13 posted on 01/20/2009 11:57:36 PM PST by ari-freedom (Hail to the Dork!)
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To: ari-freedom
Yes you are correct just wished it were not so. Have a feeling we will be like the Dutch land owners in S. Africa.

All will be taken from us and redistributed.
14 posted on 01/21/2009 12:00:44 AM PST by BellStar (Please God give us another Chance!)
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To: GeronL
Leftwing spanding freaks, (Republicans too) have put all of us in the very real possibility of a global financial meltdown.

Ponzi Debt Schemes crashing all over the planet. Gold and Silver shooting straight up again a little this morning. Dang. I hope to buy some more in the near future before the fiat toilet paper rolls arrive.

15 posted on 01/21/2009 1:34:20 AM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: rabscuttle385

it may even be slightly ahead...


16 posted on 01/21/2009 3:58:38 AM PST by Vanders9
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To: ari-freedom; BellStar; justa-hairyape
Barack Obama Inauguration: This Emperor Has No Clothes, It Will All End In Tears

Posted By: Gerald Warner at Jan 20, 2009 at 18:50:54
The Telegraph (UK)

This will end in tears. The Obama hysteria is not merely embarrassing to witness, it is itself contributory to the scale of the disaster that is coming. What we are experiencing, in the deepening days of a global depression, is the desperate suspension of disbelief by people of intelligence - la trahison des clercs - in a pathetic effort to hypnotise themselves into the delusion that it will be all right on the night. It will not be all right.

We have been here before. In the spring of 1997, to be precise, when a charismatic, young prime minister entered Downing Street, cheered by children bussed in for the occasion waving plastic Union Jacks. A very few of us at that time incurred searing reproaches for denouncing the Great Charlatan (as I have always denominated Tony Blair) and dissenting from the public hysteria. Three times a deluded Britain elected that transparent fraud. Yesterday, when national bankruptcy became a formal reality, we reaped the bitter harvest of the Blair/Brown imposture.

The burnt child, contrary to conventional wisdom, does not fear the fire. After the Blair experience there is no excuse for anybody in Britain falling for Obama. Yet today, in this country, even some of those who remained sane during the emotional spasm of the Diana aberration are pumping the air for Princess Barack. At a time of gross economic and geopolitical instability throughout the Western world, this is beyond irresponsibility.

To anyone who kept his head, the string of Christmas cracker mottoes booming through the public address system on Washington's National Mall can only excite scepticism. It is crucial to recall the reality that lies behind the rhetoric. Denouncing "those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents" comes ill from a man whose flagship legislation, the Freedom of Choice Act, will impose abortion, including partial-birth abortion, on every state in the Union. It seems the era of Hope is to be inaugurated with a slaughter of the innocents.

Obama's American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is like one of those toxic packages traded by bankers: it camouflages many unaffordable gifts to his client state. With a federal deficit already at $1.2 trillion, Obama wants to squander $825 billion (which will undoubtedly mushroom to more than $1 trillion) on creating 600,000 more government jobs and a further 459,000 in "green energy" (useless wind turbines and other Heath-Robinson contraptions favoured by Beltway environmentalists).

It is frightening to think there is a real possibility that the entire world economy could go into complete meltdown and famine kill millions. Yet Western - and British - commentators are cocooned in a warm comfort zone of infatuation with America's answer to Neil Kinnock. We should be long past applauding politicians of any hue: they got us into this mess. The best deserve a probationary opportunity to prove themselves, the worst should be in jail.

It is questionable whether the present political system can survive the coming crisis. Whatever the solution, teenage swooning sentimentality over a celebrity cult has no part in it. The most powerful nation on earth is confronting its worst economic crisis under the leadership of its most extremely liberal politician, who has virtually no experience of federal politics. That is not an opportunity but a catastrophe.

These are frank, even ungracious, words: they have the one merit that, unlike almost everything else written today about Obama, they will not require to be eaten in the future.

17 posted on 01/21/2009 5:11:59 AM PST by blam
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To: blam

Good article. Thanks for that post. The Globalist Oligarchy that controls this charade may have something much more sinister in store with Obama. Those types of people are not dumb enough to think that changing the paint color of New Rome will put a stop to the fires of collapsing Ponzi Schemes.


18 posted on 01/21/2009 1:22:51 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: rabscuttle385

Thanks for the ping.


19 posted on 01/21/2009 1:58:11 PM PST by GOPJ ("A consensus of 100 scientists is undone by one fact." - - Einstein (take that Al Gore))
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To: rabscuttle385
If this happens, it will have one of two results.

One world government or large countries splintering into many small ones. History suggests the latter, as the central state can't pay, smaller areas are either taken or break away.

20 posted on 01/21/2009 5:23:55 PM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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