Posted on 01/16/2009 8:44:41 AM PST by AuntB
A little-noticed Joint Forces Command study, The Joint Operating Environment: Challenges and Implications for the Future Joint Forces, has some interesting conclusions on Latin America and particularly Mexico. A tip of the hat to David Holiday of OSI for bringing it to my attention.
While there have been several recent studies looking at future challenges, including the more heralded "Global Trends 2025" By the National Intelligence Council, this one actually tackles the issues of transnational crime and stateless areas. The NIC report in particular, was notably silent on the implications of failing states and criminal/terrorist pipelines.
The JOE, as the report is called, is a DOD's "perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict what will happen in the next twenty-five years. Rather, it is intended to serve as a starting point for discussions about the future security environment at the operational level of war."
In looking at potential developments, the report concludes:
In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
That is an interesting juxtaposition for Mexico, and one that, surprisingly, has not risen to the top of the foreign policy agenda. Although President-elect Obama met with Mexican president Calderón to discuss the drug war, it is unlikely the stark terms of this issue were discussed.
Mexico is at a crucial juncture. The Calderón government has gambled that it can take on the criminal enterprises of drugs, illegal smuggling, extortion and kidnapping while having a non-functional judicial system and without diminishing the culture of impunity that allows the cartel sicarios kill the best and brightest with impunity.
He had no choice, except to accept the future of Mexico as a "narco-state." The lack of serious U.S. commitment to seeking alternatives to the existing policies, including demand reduction and a serious effort to shut down the flow of sophisticated weapons, left Mexico virtually alone.
The Merida Initiative is a step, but it is not clear what that step is toward. More than 5,700 people were killed in drug-related violence in Mexico in 2008. That is a staggering figure, and it includes dozens of policemen, journalists and the few who were willing to take on the terror of the organized criminal gangs.
It is also more than all the U.S. deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan since those conflicts began, a sobering point of reference. Yet it remains unclear how the story will end.
In reference to the collapse of Pakistan, the report concluded:
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.
The descent into chaos is a real possibility, all the more so because the new administration will struggle to meet the internal economic crisis and will have little time and few resources to look south. Unfortunately, that will only exacerbate the downward spiral there.
It is certainly not just Mexico. With Mexico will go Guatemala, Honduras and much of the rest of Central America. How it will play out in the so-far complacent states of Nicaragua and Venezuela, which currently view the cartels as allies in their anti-U.S. coalition, remains to be seen.
The paper should be a starting point for far more serious discussions about a region where we remain largely blind to the threats that loom.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Douglas Farah is an award-winning investigative journalist and Senior Fellow in Financial Investigations and Transparency at the International Assessment and Strategy Center. E-mail him at doug@douglasfarah.com.
Very.
How could there possibly be a crisis for Mexicans in 2025? They’ll all be here. Of course, with the renaming of the US as Little Mexico...
“How Seriously Should We Take the Mexican Crisis?”
Which one? The Mexican crisis in Mexico or the Mexican crisis in the United States of America?
Is that serious enough. Talk to someone in Mexico that still has family there....the place is imploding from graft and the drug cartels.
None. We are going to give them back Mexiforniastan, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and probably Oklahoma, so that Mexico can pay all the benefits that are due all the illegals in those states now.
I think the primary reason McCain is still holding on to his senate seat is because he wants to ensure that there are enough gop votes that will side with the dems, preventing a filibuster, and insuring that amnesty and citizenship is granted to the illegal aliens.
At that point we willl not have to send out troops to the other side of the planet to get combat experence. They can get it in places with names like Eagle Pass, Ft. Handcock and Fabens, Texas. Been their, seen it.
The corrupt nature of the Mexicans and their "government" will only speed the process.
Not only is there Zer0, if you are in the border states or close, best be getting ready for this.
Mexico has been a feudal system for years and years. ‘You scratch mine, I’ll scratch yours’.
WELL sure -—Compean and Ramos are rotting in prison. That's a green light that illegals can cross over and when caught with drugs or other contraband will enjoy status but the guys that catch them will wind up in prison
Thanks Bush
He will be remembered for legitimizing illegals and illegal states (kosovo) and failing to release these heroes. Not for his pro life and 9-11.
Having been to Mexico I would say the government is already weaker than the thugs and have been for decades.
What I can not figure out why the average Mexican person does not rise up and over throw the government and the thugs.
President Bush opened the door for scoialism in this nation to reign supreme, and now we’re the ones being pushed out into the cold. What a horrible legacy this man has.
“Which one? The Mexican crisis in Mexico or the Mexican crisis in the United States of America?”
Indeed.
llegal Alien Nabbed in Ashland, Oregon on Public Indecency Charges
http://www.ktvl.com/news/illegal_1188620___article.html/alien_uribe.html
January 14, 2009 -
Ashland police arrested a 31-year-old illegal alien Tuesday on charges of two counts of public indecency after witnesses reported him exposing himself and performing sexually explicit acts near the Normal Street Cemetery at the bicycle path.
Calls came in at 3:25 p.m. and officers quickly surrounded the area. After he was apprehended near Clay Street, witnesses positively identified Luis Rafael Uribe Luna.
Eight similar incidents dating back to 2007 have been reported, though Uribe Luna has not been linked to them.
Uribe Luna remained lodged at the Jackson County Jail Wednesday evening without bail because of his illegal alien status.
Simple. Mexico's laws against gun ownership by civilians. This despite the fact that Mexico's Constitution has an equivalent of our Second Amendment. Which situation is what Obama plans for us.
What a horrible legacy this man has.
You are right-——Unbelievable-—I feel used.
Enough to eventually call it a crisis, introduce the Amero, and form a North American Union (made of the former nations of Canada, USA, Mexico)...
The question being... how will Mexico and the USA sucker Canada into joining...?
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