Caos Do Fly, At Least In New Orleans (The Dirt: GOP pummels Dems in LA election wins shockers)

National Journal ^ | December 07, 2008 | Tim Shad

[flattorney]

In a shocker, there will be a GOP Rep. in New Orleans. In a surprising twist, GOPers won a sweep in LA tonight in two general elections, picking up embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson's (D-LA 02) seat in New Orleans, and holding retiring Rep. Jim McCrery's (R) seat in the Shreveport-based Fourth District. But the surprise of the night, and possibly the cycle, was in the Big Easy. Atty Ahn “Joseph” Cao (R) defeated Jefferson 50-47%. Dems outnumber GOPers here 6-1, and African Americans make up 61% of the vote. But the NRCC must've had an inkling that something was up here, as they dumped about $60K into the CD earlier this week. They attacked Jefferson in automated phone calls for the bribery and corruption charges he faces in an upcoming trial. Dems cried foul, but apparently the message hit home.

While Cao was earning the support of GOPers nationally and in LA -- he was backed by popular Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) -- Jefferson saw no such support from Dems. Indeed, unlike in the GA SEN runoff and in LA-04, Pres-elect Obama stayed out of the contest altogether. The DCCC didn't contribute any funds here, either. This race was all about Jefferson's ethics problems, and Cao ran a very effective campaign to take advantage of the Dem's weaknesses. While the odds are stacked against Cao holding this seat past the '10 cycle, this win has got to be a shot in the arm for GOPers looking for a morale boost after two disastrous cycles.

In the other LA race that was supposed to be the marquee matchup tonight, physician/Subway restaurant owner John Fleming(R) leads Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche(D) by 356 votes, will all the precincts reporting. The AP has yet to call the race, and may wait until provisional ballots are counted to declare a winner. Dems had hoped that Carmouche's social conservatism, along with the law-and-order credentials gained as DA, would carry him to victory here. But while Carmouche performed better than most Dems -- he carried six of the CD's counties, while Obama carried just one -- it still was not enough to overcome the huge GOP leanings of this CD. On 11/4, John McCain carried it by over 60%.

The race featured two very high-profile surrogates that potentially could match up in '12 WH race. Obama recorded a radio ad for Carmouche, and claimed that, "To change America and to get Louisiana's economy back on track - I need leaders like Paul Carmouche working with me in Washington." Obama's camp also sent out a call for volunteers and a fundraising e-mail to their LA list. Meanwhile, popular LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) endorsed Fleming, which Fleming touted in a TV ad during the campaign's final days. In spending nearly $1.2 million, the DCCC drubbed Fleming on a familiar topic -- his support for a 23% nat'l sales tax, or the "Fair" tax. Dems have been successful in ID, PA and VA in using the issue to turn the tables on the GOP, who usually own the tax issue. The NRCC, which dumped over $970K into the CD, hit Carmouche for his tenure as Caddo Parish DA. In one TV ad, the committee hit Carmouche for not prosecuting a criminal, who was arrested 53 times, under the state's repeat offender law. After his release, the criminal committed 20 more crimes in the span of the next three weeks.

But despite the efforts of Carmouche and Dems to portray Fleming as out-of-step with even GOPers, he was still apparently able to hold on, albeit by the slightest of margins. With these results, Dems have gained a net of 19 seats this cycle. They could potentially pick up two more in VA-05 and OH-15, although votes are still being tallied in both contests. Tonight's GOP wins are big for a party that has been demoralized by two difficult cycles. We'll see in the coming months if tonight's results represent a true shift towards the GOP heading into the '10 midterms, or whether they were just a blip on the road to another successful cycle for Dems.

[fieldmarshaldj]

One substantial problem is that we can’t even recruit decent candidates for federal office (or they just simply won’t run). There’s no farm team at the legislative level to speak of, either. The state legislators, what few are left, are a thinly-veiled joke. They’re part of the problem.

FR’s own Bob Parks, who was a spectacular candidate for us, just tried to run for the General Court, and he’d have been a revolutionary member, but people like him (unapologetic Conservatives) are the last kinds of people the dead MA GOP wants. Nope, they don’t want Black & Right, they just want more country-clubber liberal White guys willing to kiss the rings of their Democrat betters for crumbs and a collegial atmosphere. And with RINOs hijacking our state parties one at a time, they’re going to make Massachusetts the model for the country.

I have to add, too, the willful incompetence that here MA has an unpopular moonbat Governor that should’ve led to at least a couple of modest GOP gains in the legislature, and instead, we shrunk from 12% to 10% of the body (3 seat House loss). I mean, what in the hell did Torkildsen even do over the past two years ? I can’t believe he was even able to get elected to Congress - twice !

[PGalt]

Thanks for posting. Congratulations Congressman Cao!

[Clintonfatigued]

Conservatives who are successful in politics are successful in part because they have a good sense of timing. The past two elections were not a good time for conservatives to run for Federal office.

[flattorney]

TAB