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Minnesota Recount Live, Day 7: One numbers junkie's prediction — Franken over Coleman by 27 votes
http://www.twincities.com/ci_11071552 ^

Posted on 11/25/2008 1:05:16 PM PST by tomymind

Things may not be going as well as Al Franken hoped in the recount, but don't tell that to Nate Silver. The numbers junkie behind FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that Franken will win the recount — once all challenges are resolved — by 27 votes. (Related: Franken losing ground to Coleman on DFL turf

How'd he come up with that number?

It's little complex — OK, that's an understatement — but Silver basically did a regression analysis using recounted precincts where there were few or no challenged ballots (Franken has done well there) and projected it across the rest of the state.

The analysis has caught national attention. Here's MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, speaking Monday night on her show:

"In the Minnesota Senate race — over the weekend, FiveThirtyEight.com`s Nate Silver, America`s most widely-loved electoral projector, analyzed precinct-by-precinct returns and predicted that Al Franken will win the recount by a grand total of 27 votes. If Nate Silver turns out to be exactly right in this race, like he was in the presidential race, with this 27-vote margin prediction — if he`s right again, the whole country has to buy him a beer — 300 million beers for Nate Silver."

(Excerpt) Read more at twincities.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Minnesota
KEYWORDS: 2008; alfranken; ballot; ballots; coleman; election; fraud; frenken; minnesota; mn; mn2008; normcoleman; rats; recountballot; rino; vote
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From: http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Franken_camp_finds_6400_uncounted_absentee_1125.html
With the recount in the razor-thin Minnesota U.S. Senate race continuing into its second week, Democratic candidate Al Franken's campaign says it has uncovered 6,400 rejected absentee ballots and will ask a state board to count at least some of those votes.

RINOs like Pawlenty are more concerned about how friendly they are than winning. I'm smelling a big, fat, stinky, smelly rat...

Contacting Office of the Governor

To contact Governor Tim Pawlenty and Lt. Governor Carol Molnau, please write, phone, fax or e-mail.

Mailing Address:

Office of the Governor
130 State Capitol
75 Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd.
St. Paul, MN 55155

Other ways to reach our office:

Telephone: (651) 296-3391
Toll Free: (800) 657-3717
Facsimile: (651) 296-2089
E-mail: tim.pawlenty@state.mn.us

-----------------------

https://www.colemanforsenate.com/contribute/

http://www.colemanforsenate.com/take-action

----------------------


1 posted on 11/25/2008 1:05:17 PM PST by tomymind
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To: MplsSteve

PING!


2 posted on 11/25/2008 1:06:14 PM PST by tomymind (McCain is my President)
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To: tomymind

Count, recount then recount until you win, then declare victory. It’s the Demokrat way............


3 posted on 11/25/2008 1:06:37 PM PST by Red Badger (Never has a man risen so far, so fast and is expected to do so much, for so many, with so little...)
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To: tomymind

A woman who once said ‘ My mind is jello ‘ to be Sec’y of State, Caligula appointed a horse of his to the Senate, Franken a few stolen votes away? so much for the theory of evolution.


4 posted on 11/25/2008 1:08:06 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed)
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To: tomymind

Pawlenty..RINO in chief. Might as well get Franke. Stick Republicans with a fork...they are done.


5 posted on 11/25/2008 1:08:48 PM PST by screaminsunshine (.)
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To: tomymind; All

Can someone familiar with FiveThirtyEight.com please give me a quick summary as to their politics?
I know a couple of libs who swear by them so I am immediately suspicious.
Thanks!


6 posted on 11/25/2008 1:11:51 PM PST by astyanax (If you need to wear a mask while speaking your mind, it is probably best you remain silent...)
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To: NormsRevenge

At least the Senate from long ago got a complete horse in the bargain. We’ll only get a horse’s A$$.


7 posted on 11/25/2008 1:16:50 PM PST by willgolfforfood
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To: astyanax
Can someone familiar with FiveThirtyEight.com please give me a quick summary as to their politics?

Very, very liberal. Most comments on his blog are from libs. But he is generally considered reasonably fair by those on the right including me. He is, unfortunately, pretty accurate with his predictions. You should compare his Obama vs. McCain prediction with how it turned out. I can't stand to look myself but I'm betting he was pretty close.

8 posted on 11/25/2008 1:16:54 PM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: willgolfforfood

LOL Touche!


9 posted on 11/25/2008 1:18:20 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed)
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To: NormsRevenge

Frank’n Beans will be the next senator from Minnesota, bank on it...........


10 posted on 11/25/2008 1:20:21 PM PST by Red Badger (Never has a man risen so far, so fast and is expected to do so much, for so many, with so little...)
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To: tomymind

FiveThirtyEight.com is Soros funded and propped up by Keith Olbermann...IGNORE EVERYTHING THESE IDIOTS SAY.


11 posted on 11/25/2008 1:21:20 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (Forget the 3AM phone call. Obama can not even answer the phone at 3PM.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Very liberal is being kind. They are in the Soros network along with MSNBC.


12 posted on 11/25/2008 1:22:17 PM PST by My Favorite Headache (Forget the 3AM phone call. Obama can not even answer the phone at 3PM.)
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To: tomymind

This substantial reversal smells fishy


13 posted on 11/25/2008 1:23:24 PM PST by Seeing More Clearly Now
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To: All
Nate Silver is a pathetic sniveling little weasel. It is absolutely impossible to make such a prediction and the little fool knows it. Why? Because the challenge process involves subjective variables that no mathematical formula can account for.

Can deviant Al steal the election? Absolutely, but it is just as likely that Coleman will win. (He is leading by 218 votes at the latest count.)

Silver wants to set up a "stolen election" meme for Franken if Coleman wins. That's the only reason to make such an idiotic "projection."

14 posted on 11/25/2008 1:30:23 PM PST by freedomwarrior998
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To: tomymind

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/

Coleman is now leading by 218 votes, which is MORE than he had when the recount began. Coleman has about 30 more challenges than Franken does. This is important since most observers believe that 99% of all challenges will be overruled. Coleman’s true lead is thus more likely in the 190 vote range.


15 posted on 11/25/2008 1:35:58 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

According to this:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

It looks like it says Coleman has over 18,000 votes on Frankenstein! Could that be right?


16 posted on 11/25/2008 1:51:05 PM PST by RogerWilko
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To: RogerWilko

Those are raw numbers. To get a better picture, you need to compare the numbers gained/lost from election day to recount day. Those are shown here:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/


17 posted on 11/25/2008 1:53:20 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: My Favorite Headache

Say what you will about his politics, but his electoral prediction was scary accurate.


18 posted on 11/25/2008 1:54:01 PM PST by vikk
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To: InterceptPoint

I haven’t looked at his website, but since the official margin in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes (after all the Democrat shenanigans to discover non-existent votes for Gore), 538 would represent the number of additional votes Gore would have needed to have become President. Someone who picks that name for his website is apparently obsessed with the fact that Bush won in 2000.


19 posted on 11/25/2008 2:40:33 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus
"Someone who picks that name for his website is apparently obsessed with the fact that Bush won in 2000."

Well not to defend old 538 but his rationale for naming his website is the total available electoral college votes, one for each senator and one for each house member. The total: 538. That is why it takes 270 to win. 269 is a tie. 268 and you lose.

20 posted on 11/25/2008 2:46:27 PM PST by InterceptPoint
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