Posted on 11/25/2008 1:05:16 PM PST by tomymind
Things may not be going as well as Al Franken hoped in the recount, but don't tell that to Nate Silver. The numbers junkie behind FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that Franken will win the recount once all challenges are resolved by 27 votes. (Related: Franken losing ground to Coleman on DFL turf
How'd he come up with that number?
It's little complex OK, that's an understatement but Silver basically did a regression analysis using recounted precincts where there were few or no challenged ballots (Franken has done well there) and projected it across the rest of the state.
The analysis has caught national attention. Here's MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, speaking Monday night on her show:
"In the Minnesota Senate race over the weekend, FiveThirtyEight.com`s Nate Silver, America`s most widely-loved electoral projector, analyzed precinct-by-precinct returns and predicted that Al Franken will win the recount by a grand total of 27 votes. If Nate Silver turns out to be exactly right in this race, like he was in the presidential race, with this 27-vote margin prediction if he`s right again, the whole country has to buy him a beer 300 million beers for Nate Silver."
(Excerpt) Read more at twincities.com ...
RINOs like Pawlenty are more concerned about how friendly they are than winning. I'm smelling a big, fat, stinky, smelly rat...
Contacting Office of the Governor
To contact Governor Tim Pawlenty and Lt. Governor Carol Molnau, please write, phone, fax or e-mail.
Mailing Address:
Office of the Governor
130 State Capitol
75 Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd.
St. Paul, MN 55155
Other ways to reach our office:
Telephone: (651) 296-3391
Toll Free: (800) 657-3717
Facsimile: (651) 296-2089
E-mail: tim.pawlenty@state.mn.us
-----------------------
https://www.colemanforsenate.com/contribute/
http://www.colemanforsenate.com/take-action
----------------------
PING!
Count, recount then recount until you win, then declare victory. It’s the Demokrat way............
A woman who once said ‘ My mind is jello ‘ to be Sec’y of State, Caligula appointed a horse of his to the Senate, Franken a few stolen votes away? so much for the theory of evolution.
Pawlenty..RINO in chief. Might as well get Franke. Stick Republicans with a fork...they are done.
Can someone familiar with FiveThirtyEight.com please give me a quick summary as to their politics?
I know a couple of libs who swear by them so I am immediately suspicious.
Thanks!
At least the Senate from long ago got a complete horse in the bargain. We’ll only get a horse’s A$$.
Very, very liberal. Most comments on his blog are from libs. But he is generally considered reasonably fair by those on the right including me. He is, unfortunately, pretty accurate with his predictions. You should compare his Obama vs. McCain prediction with how it turned out. I can't stand to look myself but I'm betting he was pretty close.
LOL Touche!
Frank’n Beans will be the next senator from Minnesota, bank on it...........
FiveThirtyEight.com is Soros funded and propped up by Keith Olbermann...IGNORE EVERYTHING THESE IDIOTS SAY.
Very liberal is being kind. They are in the Soros network along with MSNBC.
This substantial reversal smells fishy
Can deviant Al steal the election? Absolutely, but it is just as likely that Coleman will win. (He is leading by 218 votes at the latest count.)
Silver wants to set up a "stolen election" meme for Franken if Coleman wins. That's the only reason to make such an idiotic "projection."
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/
Coleman is now leading by 218 votes, which is MORE than he had when the recount began. Coleman has about 30 more challenges than Franken does. This is important since most observers believe that 99% of all challenges will be overruled. Coleman’s true lead is thus more likely in the 190 vote range.
According to this:
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp
It looks like it says Coleman has over 18,000 votes on Frankenstein! Could that be right?
Those are raw numbers. To get a better picture, you need to compare the numbers gained/lost from election day to recount day. Those are shown here:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/
Say what you will about his politics, but his electoral prediction was scary accurate.
I haven’t looked at his website, but since the official margin in Florida in 2000 was 537 votes (after all the Democrat shenanigans to discover non-existent votes for Gore), 538 would represent the number of additional votes Gore would have needed to have become President. Someone who picks that name for his website is apparently obsessed with the fact that Bush won in 2000.
Well not to defend old 538 but his rationale for naming his website is the total available electoral college votes, one for each senator and one for each house member. The total: 538. That is why it takes 270 to win. 269 is a tie. 268 and you lose.
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