Posted on 11/22/2008 4:01:21 PM PST by dano1
I AM endlessly charmed by chatter about when this slowdown/recession will end. (snip)
But this does not look like a typical recession. A typical recession is brought on by Federal Reserve tightening in the face of excessive demand and rising prices. The economy still functions normally, but purposeful credit tightening slows activity. When the Fed loosens up and money starts flowing, demand increases and growth returns. This, at least, is the pattern of the large recessions we have had since the Great Depression, which was a special case, as we shall see.
Smaller recessions have been brought on simply by the inventory-business cycle, but they, too, were amenable to Fed stimulus.
That was because normal credit mechanisms were working.
This time it’s different. Or, because that is a dangerous phrase, let me say that maybe this time it’s different.
The problem now, as in 1929 to 1940, is that the economy is not functioning normally. It is shot through and through with fear, even terror. Worse yet, and unlike the situation in the Depression, government miscues have been only a part of the problem. This fear is so pervasive that it has brought the credit sector to a virtual shutdown, even to borrowers with good credit. At this point, the lending sector is so panicked —largely from the government’s inconsistent behavior and failure to rescue Lehman Brothers — that it is frozen. Not totally, but way too much for ease of lending and maybe even for the survival of a robust economy. And if a colossal worldwide deleveraging spreads to Treasury debt owned by foreigners, the situation will be deadly serious.
The unemployment rate is rising. Housing is in collapse. Manufacturing is weak. The unionized auto sector is dying before our eyes. Commodities are falling hard and fast.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Where ever did you get such a retarded theory as that?
Oh yeah, FDR "negotiated" the destruction of the entire pacific fleet to get us IN to the war. LMAO!
I suppose that later, the Japs asked us to nuke them so they could get out of it?
Tojo and Yamamoto-I tell people the same thing. Great minds think alike.
That is my fear.
If our country experiences a prolonged recession/depression I’m not sure our current “why is this taking so long” population will get it.
An open door for major political change and the end of our country as we know it.
Sometimes depressions lead to Dark Ages. Ask any Roman. No Roman from 500AD lived to see the end of that Great Depression.
I’d very much like to learn more about this. What Roman great depression in 500 AD? I am aware of the fall of Rome by the barbarian hordes around this time. But I am not aware of an economic depression then.
I can't recall this fool being "balanced" about ANYTHING in at least the last 15 yrs. If he ever knew anything, he rapidly forgot and replaced it with the usual Hollywood claptrap once he arrived there.
Yes...World War II!
What this article addresses is the need to create a climate of trust again.
Once trust is lost, it is very difficult to replace.
A government hell-bent on robbing producers to pay-off loafers won't get the job done.
“However, this is where your point has great relevance. We (the US and the civilized world) are to the point of technology saturation. What’s next? There doesn’t seem to be any new technology on the near-horizon that is so compelling it continues to drive demand for consumer goods”
I know I preach a lot about NAFTA and the other upcoming free trade groups, but the agenda behind it all is to elevate the economies and standard of living of these countries to merge them into one entity.
The benefit of this is to increase the GNP of the world from the present%25 with a participating standard of living to %100 by increasing the others standard of living. This will enable the world economy to grow by %75. In other words it’s not a new technology or product coming available to the existing world market but the expansion of the world market that is the objective; and an opportunity for the redemption of our debt or dilution of it.
It’s like saying we can only sell a washing machine that never wears out to x number of people in the world and that has been fulfilled, when we have %75 of the people who can’t buy one because they have no income to buy it with or no outlet to plug it into. Change the world market by elevating the standard of living and it will open up the markets. aka New World Order
Professor Irwin Correy?
What manufacturing? They sent it all to China and then expected our economy to survive on the huge executive compensation paid to the brainiacs who thought it was a good idea to decimate the American workforce.
Yup- Central Planning:
That sure worked for all the Soviet Union, didn’t it?
How many starved?
How many lived wretched lives?
NObama thinks there are 57 states-—sure am not going to support his “central planning”.
You better hope and pray that you are wrong.
There is too little time and too few assets to "try 100 different things".
The current economic and financial state here and throughout the world has the potential to move quickly into a state equal or worse than the great depression.
Sounds like a lot of folks here are routing for Obama to get this wrong.
You have no idea how ugly this can get..
Only thing "bad" in the 80's was interest rates shot up for a couple years, that's about all. Otherwise, those were good years. Excellent years in fact.
Yeah.....speaking of “throwing someone under the bus”....I predict Hillary will be FIRST....and then...she’s outta the Senate....out of the State....and outta politics!!! maybe temporarily or maybe permanently....”
What happens if she resigns her post in the Sentate- then the “clearance” background on her and Bill comes up with something the Messiah doesn’t like and he withdraws the Sec State nomination?
Does he effectively cut her off at the knees???
YEP....and I would NOT be surprised if it happened!!!
Please tell me there was no room for your < /sarc> tag, in that annoying, centered little box.
I believe millions of Americans know EXACTLY how ugly this can get. They are buying guns and ammunition like there is no tomorrow and it isn't just out of fear that new gun restrictions will be imposed.
A lot of people are stocking up on the basics and know enough to get prepared to defend their stocks and their lives.
“””Sometimes depressions lead to Dark Ages. Ask any Roman. No Roman from 500AD lived to see the end of that Great Depression.
I’d very much like to learn more about this. What Roman great depression in 500 AD? I am aware of the fall of Rome by the barbarian hordes around this time. But I am not aware of an economic depression then.””””
Economic collapse can lead to a breakdown or collapse of civilization if it spirals out of control - as what happened to the Romans would be my thinking on this
That’s the nicest response I’ve ever seen to: “Just correcting my tagline.” And, of course, you are right.
The depression ended AFTER the war, and even then it took a few years before people could feel their lives improve.
Obama will probably try about 100 different things, all of them wrong and out of desperation...sounds like a lot of folks here are rooting for Obama to get this wrong.
Will you please tell me how a Gramski/Saul Alinsky disciple is going to get this any other way but wrong? Of course, we don’t want to see America go down, but if you think this commie is going to get it right, you are sadly mistaken.
Root for a commie to get it right? Impossible. Were he McCain we’d have an outside chance, but not with this guy.
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