Posted on 11/06/2008 9:28:18 PM PST by beagleone
A Tale of Two Parties: Myths, Realities and Strategies in the General Election
Now that the shock and disbelief of Election Night have passed (and I must admit, I feel no small relief to finally have the matter decided), I find myself more able to analyze what happened on Tuesday. And unsurprisingly, it isn’t the tale the media told us.
We are all supposed to believe that the Democratic turnout was enormous and unprecedented. The youths and the AA’s came out in droves. It was an outpouring never seen before for the most Unifying and Post-Partisan Candidate Ever! We are also supposed to believe that Obama’s electoral strategy of expanding the map into the South and West through that turnout was successful, and that his Holy Awesomeness was recognized throughout the land. Yea, verily, he is the President of All The People! (Yes, I heard a pundit on MSNObama actually say words to that effect on Election Night.)
Yet, in fact, none of these things are actually true. All the assumptions above are based on nothing but pretty stories - indeed, I might say, with a hat tip to Bill Clinton, “fairy tales.”
Commenter Cognitive Dissonance mentioned this yesterday, but I had already seen bloggers State of Disbelief and Edgeoforever mentioning it on PUMA sites during the day. From EOF’s site, let’s take a look at the actual turnout numbers this year, compared to the numbers in 2004, the election between the Worst President Ever and Senator John Kerry, a man for whom I gladly voted.
2004
62,040,606-Bush
59,028,109-Kerry
411,304 Nader
2008
63,507,800 - Obama
56,151,859 - McCain
Youth voters only ^ 1%
AA voters ^ 2%
So, this enormous and unprecedented turnout for Obama was only unprecedented for a Democrat. It amounted to 4.5 million more votes than John Kerry, and only 1.5 million more than Bush. The PUMA factor is being estimated at between 2.7 million and 2.9 million, and we must not forget the role of the much-investigated ACORN in registering all those new voters, some as many as 72 times each. As usual, stories of election fraud will be suppressed by the corporate media, since their favored candidate has won once again; but I suspect that ACORN contributed greatly to those surprising numbers in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. In any case, the PUMA numbers were very close to matching the “massive turnout” numbers for Obama.
One myth down.
The second myth is that Obama could win without PUMAs because he was going to “expand the electoral map.” He felt he even had a chance in deep red states like Kansas, but counted on states like North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and Virginia to make up for his possible losses in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Obama’s map held up, and even improved in the General Election (although many of the red states Obama thought he would win stayed red).
However, in the primaries Hillary Clinton disputed that map, and so did we. The numbers were simply not there for Obama. But we didn’t realize that he would have a lot of help - not just from ACORN, but from…Republicans.
As we know, Barack Obama is the most scandal-ridden Democratic Party nominee in recent memory. He is our Rudy Giuliani, whose mob ties, failures of judgment on 9/11 (putting the emergency response center in the World Trade Center so he could see it from his bachelor pad) and inveterate and classless womanizing caused him to self-destruct in the primaries. Yet where were the 527 ads against Barack Obama this year? They wouldn’t even have had to lie this time, the way they shamefully did in 2004 about John Kerry’s military service. Obama repeatedly insulted working-class voters, cementing his elitist creds in a way Al Gore and John Kerry never did or could. Obama really DOES hang out with domestic terrorists. Obama’s pastor, mentor and friend of 20 years is an unrepentant, America-hating misogynist and racist, who is close friends with renowned anti-Semite and whackjob Louis Farrakhan. Obama’s associates in Illinois are being investigated and indicted. His birth, his education and most of his life are shrouded in mystery. The slightest bit of investigation uncovers a mountain of dirt and doubt. In addition, his choice for Vice President made Dubya look well-spoken. So why did the Republicans not do what they do best, and destroy the opposition?
There is nothing else to conclude other than this: the Party hung McCain and Palin out to dry. They threw the election. Influential conservative commentators pulled their punches, and some even backed Obama openly. KKKarl Rove was on the teevee saying that an Obama win was inevitable. The media leaked stories of chaos within the campaign regarding McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Republican Party allowed Governor Palin to be savaged in the press (and it is still happening), despite the brave statements of a few Republican women when she was first introduced to the public. Senior Republicans snarled that she was not ready, inexperienced, an embarrassment. Key Bush figures like Colin Powell and Scott McClellan endorsed Obama. The evangelical base never supported McCain, despite the addition of a Christian conservative to the ticket. This behavior was a shocking departure from the Party of the past, which had always followed Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment.
The effect of all of this undermining was undeniable: 56 million voters came out for McCain, and 62 million voters came out for Bush. We don’t know what the PUMA factor was, since a lot of PUMAs voted third party, left the top of the ticket blank, or wrote in Hillary. Some even stayed home in protest. Those PUMA votes would neither have gone to McCain nor Obama. However, if we assume for theoretical purposes that about a third of PUMAs voted McCain, that means that at least 7 million fewer Republicans voted for McCain than Bush.
The short-sightedness of these voters astonishes me, for John McCain and Sarah Palin were the only shot the Party had at redemption. They were rebranding the Party as the Party of feminism, tolerance, government oversight and responsible spending. That brand is now lost to the Republicans. The Democrats will never regain that brand either, because they trashed the person who exemplified it, Bill Clinton, in order to gain Barack Obama. The Republican Party Leaders found themselves a Democratic George Bush, and they did everything in their power to help him win.
Some well-meaning Republicans think they can rebuild the Party by going “back” to conservative principles. Sorry, but wow! Get a clue, guys: Republicans never govern the way they say they will. George W. Bush was beloved by the base, and he was completely anti-conservative. The government grew huge under his Administration; spending was out of control; and he all but destroyed the Constitution with his faith-based initiatives and unprecedented seizing of executive power in the name of “National Security.” Of course, he “kept us safe” too; that is, if you forget that 9/11 happened on his watch and so did the anthrax attacks, and that he created thousands of NEW terrorists by instigating two invasions and occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Well, if Bush is what you love, oh Republican voters, have no fear: Barack Obama seems poised to continue smoothly in the tracks laid so deeply by George W. Bush. There will be no oversight of anything, with a one-Party government in power; out-of-control spending will certainly continue; and faith-based initiatives and warrantless wiretapping are both enthusiastically supported by the Senator from Illinois. Oh, and Joe Biden promises us death and destruction within six months, so you may get your terrorist attack too. Well-done, folks! And I feel so lucky, living in New York! Golly gee, I sure hope I live through Obama’s first term, unlike 3,000 of my compatriots in Bush’s first term, and so many, many thousands more in his second. But hey, what does it matter as long as you all get what you want?
Poor John McCain and Sarah Palin. Poor Bill and Hillary Clinton. They are career politicians without a Party. Both Democratic and Republican Party Leaders teamed up with the media to elect Barack Obama this year. No one else ever had a chance.
I am sure that within a few months of Barack Obama’s inauguration, we will know a lot more about what he intends to do to, er, for, America. One thing we know for certain is that the media never, EVER likes the candidate that is good for our country. They liked Reagan. They liked Bush. How’d those guys work out for us?
As I said before, I understand the joy that so many Americans are feeling. But if you look at the reality of what happened on Tuesday, you will see that it was a very ominous sign. Yesterday, Russia felt emboldened to announce a very aggressive move that they had been threatening to make for months. The stock market fluctuated wildly yesterday, but ended up down 145.44 points - an extremely unusual event on the day after an election - and today, it is plummeting further. I fear that things are going to get worse for Americans before they get better.
I do have faith that our democracy will survive, however; but only if enough of us are willing to discard our party loyalty and work together to make it happen. I invite everyone of all political stripes to join us in the effort to become more than hopeless pawns of the corporations that run our media and our political parties. I will have an updated blogroll soon, which will provide more information about things you can do to help.
In the meantime, while we organize and focus, stay strong, my fellow Americans, and remember this quote:
Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.
Margaret Mead
US anthropologist & popularizer of anthropology (1901 - 1978)
PUMA POWER!!!
For weeks I referred to him as Digger O'Dell, the Friendly Undertaker, on the old Fred Allen radio show.
His boring, flat commentaries stirred no excitement, no hope, no inspiration for the Republicans. Everyone seems to like this little Pilsbury Dough-boy.....but I remember he stood at the right hand of Bush for two terms advising him. His advice helped and probably caused disaster after disaster in the Bush years, including the virtual breakdown of the GOP.....not to mention the policy of never responding to attacks, thus emboldening the enemy and demoralizing the base.
I hope they lose Rove now the election is over. Years more of him is unbearable to think of. He has nothing to offer, just more political hackery dressed up in a Brooks Bros. suit.
Leni
A lot of people were swayed at the last minute by things like no more pre-existing conditions/unearned tax rebate checks/environmental issues. Also, I am told, a lot of last minute lobbying and arm twisting of anyone who wasn’t onboard the zerO train. They were told this is the most important election ever and you can save that protest vote for some other time.
At my precinct, the leftists were out election day acting like it was a party and recording the event for posterity inside the voting room at our township hall with not a peep from anyone at all.
PUMAs weren’t enough, it was a coup.
Reagan won not just because he was conservative, but because he was effective in explaining why YOU should be a conservative too. McCain was just Democrat-lite. Why vote for Dem-lite when you could have the real thing?
The authors conclusions have no real valuable numbers to back them up.
Unless you have both registered voter data and voting data, together and just as importantly state by state, plus some VERY good exit polling, you cannot conclude any degree of who stayed home, or jumped parties.
The mere number of votes received cannot define many things that many writers are extrapolating from them.
“Brit Hume was saying that 13 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters in Texas voted McCain.”
Baloney. Hume said 87% of Hill suporters voted for Obama, that doesn’t mean the rest voted for Mac. As noted above, it has been stated by PUMAS leaders that many of their votes were either for a 3rd party, written in Hills or left blank.
Quit making facts up.
“They all liked Sarah Palin, some more enthusaistically than others. But they all liked Palin.”
What did the like about her, her stance on abortion?
You wish you would've "had a chance" to speak with your Dad about the election? This election period was eternally long. Whatever prevented you from having a chance to speak to your terminally ill Dad about the election in all that time?
Sounds to me like you'd better lay the blame where it belongs: the media and your lack of relating to your Dad.
Elections come and go, but your Dad is your Dad forever, even after he's gone. Better use this time to build a better relationship with him and forget about his vote for Obama. Your Dad's vote didn't make him president. But your anger at your Dad could affect you for a very long time.
Without going into all the gory details, there were other, more immediate issues on the table in our conversations - such as whether a family member had lived through another night, how the latest surgery went, options for long term care, legal issues. For the better part of this year, almost all of our conversations have centered around someone's health - mine, his, Mom's, Grandma's, etc.
So, yeah, Obama and his ilk took a back seat. Moreover, I never expected him to switch to a Democrat, particularly such a blatently liberal one. He's always been a Conservative; his vote for McCain, even a "hold your nose" vote for McCain, should have been a non-issue.
Hence, the surprise.
Fear not, though! He's refused to "claim me," too, but we usually get over it in about two weeks. He's a good and loving man.
My apologies. It’s my policy not to judge another, knowing I cannot possibly know all the factors involved in any situation causing them them to choose to do what they did. But dont you think you could give your Dad the same understanding you just requested of me?
I wish your family all the best. It sounds like you have a lot of heavy stuff going on. Just don’t forget that love is the most important part of being a family, and you can never give too much. :) That’s something you’ll never regret.
He and I are very much alike; quick to anger, quick to forgive.
Next time we talk, it will be all forgotten.
Peace, FRiend, have a great weekend!
and now they will vote to increase out taxes! Yankees go home! PS>Most of my friends are Yankees and so is my husband, but they are conservatives!
Ah, that’s really good to hear. :) And again, I’m sorry I judged you.
You have a great weekend too!
I think some Republicans were angry at the party, and wanted to teach the leaders a lesson. I guess they did, though it remains to be seen what that is.
They don’t care about her stance on abortion. They are tired of the Democrat Party using abortion as a weapon against women to scare them into voting for their party.
You quit making facts up. Show me the hard numbers of voters who voted for the mystery third party candidate or the blank at the top in the returns. They aren’t there.
I agree with you. The only thing we know for sure is that more votes went to Obama than McCain. Notice I didn’t say “more people”.
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