Skip to comments.PUMA analysis of the voting results
Posted on 11/06/2008 9:28:18 PM PST by beagleone
A Tale of Two Parties: Myths, Realities and Strategies in the General Election
Now that the shock and disbelief of Election Night have passed (and I must admit, I feel no small relief to finally have the matter decided), I find myself more able to analyze what happened on Tuesday. And unsurprisingly, it isnt the tale the media told us.
We are all supposed to believe that the Democratic turnout was enormous and unprecedented. The youths and the AAs came out in droves. It was an outpouring never seen before for the most Unifying and Post-Partisan Candidate Ever! We are also supposed to believe that Obamas electoral strategy of expanding the map into the South and West through that turnout was successful, and that his Holy Awesomeness was recognized throughout the land. Yea, verily, he is the President of All The People! (Yes, I heard a pundit on MSNObama actually say words to that effect on Election Night.)
Yet, in fact, none of these things are actually true. All the assumptions above are based on nothing but pretty stories - indeed, I might say, with a hat tip to Bill Clinton, fairy tales.
Commenter Cognitive Dissonance mentioned this yesterday, but I had already seen bloggers State of Disbelief and Edgeoforever mentioning it on PUMA sites during the day. From EOFs site, lets take a look at the actual turnout numbers this year, compared to the numbers in 2004, the election between the Worst President Ever and Senator John Kerry, a man for whom I gladly voted.
63,507,800 - Obama
56,151,859 - McCain
Youth voters only ^ 1%
AA voters ^ 2%
So, this enormous and unprecedented turnout for Obama was only unprecedented for a Democrat. It amounted to 4.5 million more votes than John Kerry, and only 1.5 million more than Bush. The PUMA factor is being estimated at between 2.7 million and 2.9 million, and we must not forget the role of the much-investigated ACORN in registering all those new voters, some as many as 72 times each. As usual, stories of election fraud will be suppressed by the corporate media, since their favored candidate has won once again; but I suspect that ACORN contributed greatly to those surprising numbers in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. In any case, the PUMA numbers were very close to matching the massive turnout numbers for Obama.
One myth down.
The second myth is that Obama could win without PUMAs because he was going to expand the electoral map. He felt he even had a chance in deep red states like Kansas, but counted on states like North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and Virginia to make up for his possible losses in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Obamas map held up, and even improved in the General Election (although many of the red states Obama thought he would win stayed red).
However, in the primaries Hillary Clinton disputed that map, and so did we. The numbers were simply not there for Obama. But we didnt realize that he would have a lot of help - not just from ACORN, but from Republicans.
As we know, Barack Obama is the most scandal-ridden Democratic Party nominee in recent memory. He is our Rudy Giuliani, whose mob ties, failures of judgment on 9/11 (putting the emergency response center in the World Trade Center so he could see it from his bachelor pad) and inveterate and classless womanizing caused him to self-destruct in the primaries. Yet where were the 527 ads against Barack Obama this year? They wouldnt even have had to lie this time, the way they shamefully did in 2004 about John Kerrys military service. Obama repeatedly insulted working-class voters, cementing his elitist creds in a way Al Gore and John Kerry never did or could. Obama really DOES hang out with domestic terrorists. Obamas pastor, mentor and friend of 20 years is an unrepentant, America-hating misogynist and racist, who is close friends with renowned anti-Semite and whackjob Louis Farrakhan. Obamas associates in Illinois are being investigated and indicted. His birth, his education and most of his life are shrouded in mystery. The slightest bit of investigation uncovers a mountain of dirt and doubt. In addition, his choice for Vice President made Dubya look well-spoken. So why did the Republicans not do what they do best, and destroy the opposition?
There is nothing else to conclude other than this: the Party hung McCain and Palin out to dry. They threw the election. Influential conservative commentators pulled their punches, and some even backed Obama openly. KKKarl Rove was on the teevee saying that an Obama win was inevitable. The media leaked stories of chaos within the campaign regarding McCains choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Republican Party allowed Governor Palin to be savaged in the press (and it is still happening), despite the brave statements of a few Republican women when she was first introduced to the public. Senior Republicans snarled that she was not ready, inexperienced, an embarrassment. Key Bush figures like Colin Powell and Scott McClellan endorsed Obama. The evangelical base never supported McCain, despite the addition of a Christian conservative to the ticket. This behavior was a shocking departure from the Party of the past, which had always followed Reagans Eleventh Commandment.
The effect of all of this undermining was undeniable: 56 million voters came out for McCain, and 62 million voters came out for Bush. We dont know what the PUMA factor was, since a lot of PUMAs voted third party, left the top of the ticket blank, or wrote in Hillary. Some even stayed home in protest. Those PUMA votes would neither have gone to McCain nor Obama. However, if we assume for theoretical purposes that about a third of PUMAs voted McCain, that means that at least 7 million fewer Republicans voted for McCain than Bush.
The short-sightedness of these voters astonishes me, for John McCain and Sarah Palin were the only shot the Party had at redemption. They were rebranding the Party as the Party of feminism, tolerance, government oversight and responsible spending. That brand is now lost to the Republicans. The Democrats will never regain that brand either, because they trashed the person who exemplified it, Bill Clinton, in order to gain Barack Obama. The Republican Party Leaders found themselves a Democratic George Bush, and they did everything in their power to help him win.
Some well-meaning Republicans think they can rebuild the Party by going back to conservative principles. Sorry, but wow! Get a clue, guys: Republicans never govern the way they say they will. George W. Bush was beloved by the base, and he was completely anti-conservative. The government grew huge under his Administration; spending was out of control; and he all but destroyed the Constitution with his faith-based initiatives and unprecedented seizing of executive power in the name of National Security. Of course, he kept us safe too; that is, if you forget that 9/11 happened on his watch and so did the anthrax attacks, and that he created thousands of NEW terrorists by instigating two invasions and occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Well, if Bush is what you love, oh Republican voters, have no fear: Barack Obama seems poised to continue smoothly in the tracks laid so deeply by George W. Bush. There will be no oversight of anything, with a one-Party government in power; out-of-control spending will certainly continue; and faith-based initiatives and warrantless wiretapping are both enthusiastically supported by the Senator from Illinois. Oh, and Joe Biden promises us death and destruction within six months, so you may get your terrorist attack too. Well-done, folks! And I feel so lucky, living in New York! Golly gee, I sure hope I live through Obamas first term, unlike 3,000 of my compatriots in Bushs first term, and so many, many thousands more in his second. But hey, what does it matter as long as you all get what you want?
Poor John McCain and Sarah Palin. Poor Bill and Hillary Clinton. They are career politicians without a Party. Both Democratic and Republican Party Leaders teamed up with the media to elect Barack Obama this year. No one else ever had a chance.
I am sure that within a few months of Barack Obamas inauguration, we will know a lot more about what he intends to do to, er, for, America. One thing we know for certain is that the media never, EVER likes the candidate that is good for our country. They liked Reagan. They liked Bush. Howd those guys work out for us?
As I said before, I understand the joy that so many Americans are feeling. But if you look at the reality of what happened on Tuesday, you will see that it was a very ominous sign. Yesterday, Russia felt emboldened to announce a very aggressive move that they had been threatening to make for months. The stock market fluctuated wildly yesterday, but ended up down 145.44 points - an extremely unusual event on the day after an election - and today, it is plummeting further. I fear that things are going to get worse for Americans before they get better.
I do have faith that our democracy will survive, however; but only if enough of us are willing to discard our party loyalty and work together to make it happen. I invite everyone of all political stripes to join us in the effort to become more than hopeless pawns of the corporations that run our media and our political parties. I will have an updated blogroll soon, which will provide more information about things you can do to help.
In the meantime, while we organize and focus, stay strong, my fellow Americans, and remember this quote:
Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.
US anthropologist & popularizer of anthropology (1901 - 1978)
PUMAS gave you Obama? You do not make sense! Republicans did not turn out. I traveled for McCain, made phone calls, and donated money, don’t blame me!
Hey, at least the PUMAs bothered to vote McCain. Leave them alone. Any day that a Democrat votes Republican, it’s a gift.
What I said Dimwit(whether you traveled with McCain or not)is by not prosecuting the crooks and thieves and looking the other way which btw, McCain, seems to be adept at; we got Obama and it is not the many Republican conservatives that did this.
That is bs.
The PUMA factor was either a myth or an Obama Front.
If they were in fact serrious, their effort was a complete failure.
funny, that’s the same thing they said about us.
Man, what I would have given to have had a Nugent/Palin Ticket. That would TRULY be an HISTORICAL ELECTION. I'd vote that ticket in a heartbeat!
I think a lot of Republicans, sadly, stayed home and didn’t vote or voted third party.
I pray they didn’t vote for b hussein o
ACORN had a 50 state plan and it worked.
They managed to corrupt many states because there were dem governors this time.
NC is filled with people from NY and NJ who moved there to get away from higher taxes. They brought their liberal mindset with them.
I’d lay most of the problem at the feet of the Osama-adoring media — a 24x7 sucking up, Bush/McCain-bashing media that never covered Osama’s gaffes and didn’t cover or downplayed his scandals.
I’m sorry, did you not read the entire article?
“We dont know what the PUMA factor was, since a lot of PUMAs voted third party, left the top of the ticket blank, or wrote in Hillary.”
Most of them did vote for McCain when it was obvious he was running behind.
None of them were votes for Obama.
Very well stated, and opened up my mind a little more. I think you are correct that the situation the non-voting conserves (I voted) may need a swift and hard kick in the butt (as well as the people who worship the 0ne).
My hope is that this major mistake will actually get the lesser experienced Americans to pull their heads out of their butts and learn to respect the great freedom, seen nowhere else in the world, has given them. And I hope it’s not too late.
My brother who is the same age as Barry and only a few weeks age difference supported him, last time I saw him was 1990, he has sent me several e-mails this last year and I have talked to him over the phone, he was an ardent supporter of Hillary, he supported Barry, he sent me an e-mail the day after the election.
I deleted it before reading it.
This is possibly as like it was during the American Civil War, families split and choosing opposite sides, thank you Barry for the change.
So when did voters really decide how they were going to vote?Well, well: so much for the McCain campaign's theory that most voters decide in the final 72 hours. Another one bites the dust.
Seventy percent (70%) told Rasmussen Reports on Election Day that they decided more than a month ago. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters for John McCain and 72% of Barack Obamas voters decided then.
McCains electoral fortunes came crashing down in our presidential tracking polls six weeks ago when Wall Streets meltdown took over the front pages. [Duh!!!]
Fourteen percent (14%) decided whom to vote for within the last month. This group included 13% of McCain voters and 15% of those who voted for Obama.
Among the four percent (4%) who made a decision on whom to vote for within the last week and the six percent (6%) who decided within the last few days, Obama voters outnumbered those for McCain by two-to-one. [So much for Dickie Morris's prediction that late undecideds would break 7 to 1 for McCain!!!!]
Just five percent (5%) said they decided on Election Day. These last-minute deciders were evenly divided between five percent (5%) of Obamas voters and five percent (5%) of McCains.
The "change" meme was the determiner this year. The O-man's people were on to this from the begining. Remember, way back when, the "VOTE DIFFERENT" ad? It turns out that this was brilliant. The other side figured out the main passion of this election season. Obama rode "change" wave to victory. Given the connivance of the media, the ineptitude of our candidate, the unpopularity of the current President and the financial crisis, Obama's victory was was darn near inevitable (Oh yeah, the fundraising advantage didn't hurt either). I'm surprised Obama didn't win by 20%. Hillary would have. In the end, didn't McCain receive only slightly less than Dole in percentage terms? (About 7% vs. about 8.5%)
Are they switching parties to the GOP or will they be fighting tooth and nail against Sarah in 2012?
Thank God nobody in my family voted Obama, that would be very painful. I have a sinking suspicion my wife might, I say might have considered voting for Obama if she had been allowed to vote - but she’s an Australian so thank God I didn’t have to consider divorce. She doesn’t understand politics so much, she just goes with the flow. For the sake of my sanity we just don’t talk politics, period.
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