Posted on 11/06/2008 9:28:18 PM PST by beagleone
A Tale of Two Parties: Myths, Realities and Strategies in the General Election
Now that the shock and disbelief of Election Night have passed (and I must admit, I feel no small relief to finally have the matter decided), I find myself more able to analyze what happened on Tuesday. And unsurprisingly, it isn’t the tale the media told us.
We are all supposed to believe that the Democratic turnout was enormous and unprecedented. The youths and the AA’s came out in droves. It was an outpouring never seen before for the most Unifying and Post-Partisan Candidate Ever! We are also supposed to believe that Obama’s electoral strategy of expanding the map into the South and West through that turnout was successful, and that his Holy Awesomeness was recognized throughout the land. Yea, verily, he is the President of All The People! (Yes, I heard a pundit on MSNObama actually say words to that effect on Election Night.)
Yet, in fact, none of these things are actually true. All the assumptions above are based on nothing but pretty stories - indeed, I might say, with a hat tip to Bill Clinton, “fairy tales.”
Commenter Cognitive Dissonance mentioned this yesterday, but I had already seen bloggers State of Disbelief and Edgeoforever mentioning it on PUMA sites during the day. From EOF’s site, let’s take a look at the actual turnout numbers this year, compared to the numbers in 2004, the election between the Worst President Ever and Senator John Kerry, a man for whom I gladly voted.
2004
62,040,606-Bush
59,028,109-Kerry
411,304 Nader
2008
63,507,800 - Obama
56,151,859 - McCain
Youth voters only ^ 1%
AA voters ^ 2%
So, this enormous and unprecedented turnout for Obama was only unprecedented for a Democrat. It amounted to 4.5 million more votes than John Kerry, and only 1.5 million more than Bush. The PUMA factor is being estimated at between 2.7 million and 2.9 million, and we must not forget the role of the much-investigated ACORN in registering all those new voters, some as many as 72 times each. As usual, stories of election fraud will be suppressed by the corporate media, since their favored candidate has won once again; but I suspect that ACORN contributed greatly to those surprising numbers in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. In any case, the PUMA numbers were very close to matching the “massive turnout” numbers for Obama.
One myth down.
The second myth is that Obama could win without PUMAs because he was going to “expand the electoral map.” He felt he even had a chance in deep red states like Kansas, but counted on states like North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and Virginia to make up for his possible losses in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Obama’s map held up, and even improved in the General Election (although many of the red states Obama thought he would win stayed red).
However, in the primaries Hillary Clinton disputed that map, and so did we. The numbers were simply not there for Obama. But we didn’t realize that he would have a lot of help - not just from ACORN, but from…Republicans.
As we know, Barack Obama is the most scandal-ridden Democratic Party nominee in recent memory. He is our Rudy Giuliani, whose mob ties, failures of judgment on 9/11 (putting the emergency response center in the World Trade Center so he could see it from his bachelor pad) and inveterate and classless womanizing caused him to self-destruct in the primaries. Yet where were the 527 ads against Barack Obama this year? They wouldn’t even have had to lie this time, the way they shamefully did in 2004 about John Kerry’s military service. Obama repeatedly insulted working-class voters, cementing his elitist creds in a way Al Gore and John Kerry never did or could. Obama really DOES hang out with domestic terrorists. Obama’s pastor, mentor and friend of 20 years is an unrepentant, America-hating misogynist and racist, who is close friends with renowned anti-Semite and whackjob Louis Farrakhan. Obama’s associates in Illinois are being investigated and indicted. His birth, his education and most of his life are shrouded in mystery. The slightest bit of investigation uncovers a mountain of dirt and doubt. In addition, his choice for Vice President made Dubya look well-spoken. So why did the Republicans not do what they do best, and destroy the opposition?
There is nothing else to conclude other than this: the Party hung McCain and Palin out to dry. They threw the election. Influential conservative commentators pulled their punches, and some even backed Obama openly. KKKarl Rove was on the teevee saying that an Obama win was inevitable. The media leaked stories of chaos within the campaign regarding McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Republican Party allowed Governor Palin to be savaged in the press (and it is still happening), despite the brave statements of a few Republican women when she was first introduced to the public. Senior Republicans snarled that she was not ready, inexperienced, an embarrassment. Key Bush figures like Colin Powell and Scott McClellan endorsed Obama. The evangelical base never supported McCain, despite the addition of a Christian conservative to the ticket. This behavior was a shocking departure from the Party of the past, which had always followed Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment.
The effect of all of this undermining was undeniable: 56 million voters came out for McCain, and 62 million voters came out for Bush. We don’t know what the PUMA factor was, since a lot of PUMAs voted third party, left the top of the ticket blank, or wrote in Hillary. Some even stayed home in protest. Those PUMA votes would neither have gone to McCain nor Obama. However, if we assume for theoretical purposes that about a third of PUMAs voted McCain, that means that at least 7 million fewer Republicans voted for McCain than Bush.
The short-sightedness of these voters astonishes me, for John McCain and Sarah Palin were the only shot the Party had at redemption. They were rebranding the Party as the Party of feminism, tolerance, government oversight and responsible spending. That brand is now lost to the Republicans. The Democrats will never regain that brand either, because they trashed the person who exemplified it, Bill Clinton, in order to gain Barack Obama. The Republican Party Leaders found themselves a Democratic George Bush, and they did everything in their power to help him win.
Some well-meaning Republicans think they can rebuild the Party by going “back” to conservative principles. Sorry, but wow! Get a clue, guys: Republicans never govern the way they say they will. George W. Bush was beloved by the base, and he was completely anti-conservative. The government grew huge under his Administration; spending was out of control; and he all but destroyed the Constitution with his faith-based initiatives and unprecedented seizing of executive power in the name of “National Security.” Of course, he “kept us safe” too; that is, if you forget that 9/11 happened on his watch and so did the anthrax attacks, and that he created thousands of NEW terrorists by instigating two invasions and occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Well, if Bush is what you love, oh Republican voters, have no fear: Barack Obama seems poised to continue smoothly in the tracks laid so deeply by George W. Bush. There will be no oversight of anything, with a one-Party government in power; out-of-control spending will certainly continue; and faith-based initiatives and warrantless wiretapping are both enthusiastically supported by the Senator from Illinois. Oh, and Joe Biden promises us death and destruction within six months, so you may get your terrorist attack too. Well-done, folks! And I feel so lucky, living in New York! Golly gee, I sure hope I live through Obama’s first term, unlike 3,000 of my compatriots in Bush’s first term, and so many, many thousands more in his second. But hey, what does it matter as long as you all get what you want?
Poor John McCain and Sarah Palin. Poor Bill and Hillary Clinton. They are career politicians without a Party. Both Democratic and Republican Party Leaders teamed up with the media to elect Barack Obama this year. No one else ever had a chance.
I am sure that within a few months of Barack Obama’s inauguration, we will know a lot more about what he intends to do to, er, for, America. One thing we know for certain is that the media never, EVER likes the candidate that is good for our country. They liked Reagan. They liked Bush. How’d those guys work out for us?
As I said before, I understand the joy that so many Americans are feeling. But if you look at the reality of what happened on Tuesday, you will see that it was a very ominous sign. Yesterday, Russia felt emboldened to announce a very aggressive move that they had been threatening to make for months. The stock market fluctuated wildly yesterday, but ended up down 145.44 points - an extremely unusual event on the day after an election - and today, it is plummeting further. I fear that things are going to get worse for Americans before they get better.
I do have faith that our democracy will survive, however; but only if enough of us are willing to discard our party loyalty and work together to make it happen. I invite everyone of all political stripes to join us in the effort to become more than hopeless pawns of the corporations that run our media and our political parties. I will have an updated blogroll soon, which will provide more information about things you can do to help.
In the meantime, while we organize and focus, stay strong, my fellow Americans, and remember this quote:
Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.
Margaret Mead
US anthropologist & popularizer of anthropology (1901 - 1978)
PUMA POWER!!!
It sickens me to think Republicans would vote for 0.
But I also think that idiot Barr had a role, with the votes he got in NC and Indiana, but especially NC. He’ll probably be propped up again in 12 by the rats, similar to what Perot did during the clinton years.
Because no one blamed the Dems for the messes they have made for the last 2 years. It was all because of Bush.
These numbers come from the same place as the ones on global warming. Someone pulled it out of their A==.
My Dad, a lifelong Republican, stunned and horrified me by admitting that he voted for Obama.
I told my mother that I flatly refuse to claim him as kin from here on out.
Dad's got terminal cancer, my grandma died just a few weeks ago, and his focus has been elsewhere. He doesn't have access to the internet, just the Drive-By Liberal NE Media, so it doesn't surprise me that his perception of the ticket was warped.
Just wish I had a chance to speak with him before he voted. I could have prevented that mistake!
Uhh, you’re listneing to a Hillary hack?
BTW - I hope all the PUMA lovers of Monday and Tuesday read this article.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Regarding the comments on Bush in the article, I’ll second John Derbyshire’s comments on NRO: “In 2000 I voted for George W. Bush because I was sure he had a conservative bone in his body somewhere. In 2004 I voted for Bush as the lesser of two evils. Now I wouldn’t even let the idiot park his car in my driveway.”
Regarding the main thrust. Unless by ‘Republican voters’ you mean Bush 2004 voters, no. The decline in McCain’s number from Bush’s were almost certainly due to inattentive ‘independent’ voters who were swayed by the Swiftboat Vets in 2004, and by the mainstream media in 2008, or who voted for national security in 2004, and for (misperceived) economic secrurity in 2008, not due to the GOP faithful
Tennessee went more right. We got 89 out of 95 counties not seen since 1984. I guess we are all racists here. Good Grief
Yeah, that Dem rhetoric is something else to behold.
This writer not only trashed the Iraq war but appears to blame Bush for going into Afghanistan as if it were a mistake.
Also blames Bush for 9-11.
Not the Clintons...not even one little bit.
That aside.
The Republican turnout was nowhere near what it needed to be, or might have been, given the vote to re-elect Bush in 2004.
The Dems did turn out more, but it wasn’t as massive as predicted.
And more than a few “Republicans” even voted for Obama.
Guess they took their marching orders from Colin Powell.
I’m sorry about your Dad. My advice, as one whose father fought cancer for six years and finally lost, is to make peace with him. Forgive him, for he knew not what he did. Direct your anger toward the criminal lying media who knew but would not tell.
too many folks voted by not voting. Disgusting but true. On their head be it.
A McCain win would have put off full-bore socialism for awhile, 10-15 years maybe. Long enough that more and more people would forget what freedom is, forget conservative principles. Today we have people who are willing to fight it. In 10-15 years I'm not so sure we'd have the numbers we have today.
The attempt to socialize this country was always going to happen. Do we fight them now, or later?
A bunch of people decided to have it out now and get it over with.
These idiots really think the press liked Reagan? Liked Bush? WTF are they smoking over there?
The PUMA effect was much less because the economy was such a dominant issue.
It would’ve own McCain the election had the financial crisis not happened but instead he went down in flames.
And yes, Republicans did stay home and bolt. Many red places bolted blue. Look at Indiana. Red counties turned out and many voted for Barack.
I attribute to Barack’s massive fundraising advantage. he was on the offense everywhere. McCain was on the defense everywhere and simpl ydid not have the money. Barack pulled a nixon and bought this election, pure and simple.
Not only was Mccain not able to fire back through ads, he had little to no ground game to speak of. His campaign was a cluttered mess message-wise and a cluttered mess organizationally.
Still, McCain kept it suprirsingly close. 47% is not bad given the crisis. He was 3.01% away from the presidency and we’re going to have a lot of soul-searching to get that 3.01% of the electorate back.
Pumas, give it a rest. If you guys had bothered to actually prosecute those among you who are thieves and crooks; we might not have an Obama. Your constant going after Republicans and making sure they pay whether are guilty or not is the problem. You chose to blind yourselves to the realities including Bill and Hillary that show them to be thugs and you did not lift a finger. And your constant crap about Bush was stupid beyond the pale. You did it to yourselves. We Republicans stood up and did everything we could with the limited resources we had to correct things.
So, you really gave us Obama; not the Republicans.
We are going to change that and I for one hope I never see the likes of you again. Go take your phony battle somewhere else. You can’t even get that right. You fight for a person who is every bit as bad as Obama, works for the same people; and yet you completely ignore this fact.
You deserve Obama, we don’t.
“Why would Republicans screw ourselves and the country like this? I’m at a loss for words.”
The only ones that screwed the GOP over is the GOP leadership. I doubt there were many Republicans voting for Obama, I have no doubt quite a few stayed home or voted third party rather than vote for that fraudently-portrayed-as-conservative McCain. You NEVER put forward a candidate that has supported gun control laws. It is the STUPIDEST act of lunacy you could ever commit. Remember, quite a few of GW’s 2000 & 2004 votes were pro-gun union Democrats who crossed party lines because of the anti-gun Dem candidates. But then the GOP picks a past supporter of gun-control, signaling to them that in the end it’s not going to matter any more and they fled back to Dem loyalty. Once McCain became the pick, the GOP’s chance of keeping the White House was doomed.
Now we’ll see how much self-control the Dems have. I doubt they have enough, and that could cost them the House and/or Senate in 2010. But then again, Obama’s new Chief of Staff pick was responsible for the targeted recruitment of pro-gun Dems for House & Senate races, showing that he learned his lesson from the assault-weapon ban he helped design for Clinton. As such, he just might succeed in reigning in the anti-gun element within the Dem ranks and greatly increase their chances of maintaining House and Senate control.
It was closer than the polls indicated the whole time. Just not close enough.
——he was on the offense everywhere. McCain was on the defense everywhere -——
That sums up a whole lot.
We have had way too many GOP people acting defensive and concillatory. Doesn’t get us doodlesquat, IMHO. We need leaders with a vision who want to act on that vision, not professionals so busy reacting and trying to build consensus they don’t realize they are in a war.
Until we do, we’ll get our butts kicked. Vision and offering the electorate something to believe in matters. I used to pass around Never McCain banners before things shook out.
I was right. It was never going to be McCain. The American voters proved it.
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