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McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228 (Thanks to the PUMAs)
The Marston Chronicles ^ | November 3, 2008 | Paul Marston

Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.

(Table at link)

What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.

(Table at link)

What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.

Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?

North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.

What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.

What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.

UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.

RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.

PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; election; elections; mccain; obama; polls; puma
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I disagree, but mostly it is wishful thinking on my part. I’ll vote for McCain, but want him to lose. I want the GOP to be punished for abandoning many of its principles over the past 8 years and return to where it should be. I also want a Presidential candidate that is a true conservative, not McCain who just now seems to be a johnny-come-lately to several conservative causes.

And what better way to destroy the Democratic Party than to let it have full power for two years (it won’t past 2)? Give it a rope and...well..you know the rest. Conservative dominance for 20 years after that - and we can undo the damage of 2 years easily.


141 posted on 11/03/2008 7:23:26 PM PST by graf008 ("My most important function on the Supreme Court is to tell the majority to take a walk." -Scalia)
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To: Frantzie

The longer I have called, the more I have become convinced the polls are way off and and the media pushing Obama has not played well in the center of the country. In fact, I have run into some people that are downright angry at the drive-by media and their treatment not only of Gov Palin but also of McCain.

Another common theme was a lot of people I called had been touched by affirmative action in a negative manner. That has really hit the last two weeks.

The funniest part of this last weekend has been calling into Minnesota with Lovie Smith, Coach of the Chicago Bears, having endorsed Obama. Vikings fans are not happy even a little. Their fans really like Adrian Peterson who comes from the Sooners and with my calling from Norman, OK, they were happy to hear about AD as a Sooner. Great calls and a lot were to Dems for McCain which were even better.

In 2000 and 2004, the response was not as pro-active as it has been this year. These people are ready to get out to vote and make sure McCain wins big. If I got a Dem household before I usually was hung up on and worse. This time they are pro-McCain and detest Obama.

Calling is not something I like to do but this time my response has been so much better. I detested making calls in 2000 and 2004. It has been a 180 from talking to a lot of rude people to laughing my head off at some of the comments.

Had one guy over the weekend call me back to tell me that he had gone to the local bar and took a poll of his fellow union members and they were almost all for McCain/Palin. They love Todd Palin.

I was in shock and still am in shock.


142 posted on 11/03/2008 7:24:58 PM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: PhiKapMom

Thank you so much for working so hard in making calls and saving America from marxism and worse.

You second paragraph about affirmative action was somewhat expected but still eye opening.

It sounds like you were almost like pastor/priest/rabbi counseling these people to open up and win them over versus just asking them to vote McCain. Almost like a sale call where you won their trust. Incredible job on your part. Thanks for all you have done and for reassuring me.

One last question, I got the impression the Bush 2004 GOTV was just slightly better. It sounds like you made a lot more calls and it sounds like 2008 may have been even better. Any sense on that? Sounds like you were calling all over.

:-)


143 posted on 11/03/2008 7:41:24 PM PST by Frantzie
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To: graf008

I disagree. Obama will line up planes and ships to flood more illegals from Somalia, Kenya, Middle East you name it. 2010 elections will be run by ACORN-SEIU-CAIR.

If McCain wins, hopefully, the moderate Dem Party takes back the party from Obama/ACORN. The Clintons hopefully fix his wagon with Fitzpatrick getting Rezko to rat him out.

In two years Obama can do devastating harm. Look what he did with CRA lawsuits and Frannie and Freddie to devastate the global financial market. Bin Laden was not able to do that.

Oh and the word from Africa from people I know who do business with high level people in dozens of countries over there is he is a Muslim. Not maybe, not was - IS. Wonder why the threats to avoid repeating that?


144 posted on 11/03/2008 7:47:21 PM PST by Frantzie
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To: graf008

I disagree. Obama will line up planes and ships to flood more illegals from Somalia, Kenya, Middle East you name it. 2010 elections will be run by ACORN-SEIU-CAIR.

If McCain wins, hopefully, the moderate Dem Party takes back the party from Obama/ACORN. The Clintons hopefully fix his wagon with Fitzpatrick getting Rezko to rat him out.

In two years Obama can do devastating harm. Look what he did with CRA lawsuits and Frannie and Freddie to devastate the global financial market. Bin Laden was not able to do that.

Oh and the word from Africa from people I know who do business with high level people in dozens of countries over there is he is a Muslim. Not maybe, not was - IS. Wonder why the threats to avoid repeating that?


145 posted on 11/03/2008 7:47:28 PM PST by Frantzie
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To: graf008

Congratulations. You’ve written the most foolish, ill-conceived, short-sighted post I’ve read on FR in a long time.


146 posted on 11/03/2008 7:47:41 PM PST by prairiebreeze ( Our troops DESERVE BETTER than Barack Hussein Obama!!)
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To: graf008

I disagree. Obama will line up planes and ships to flood more illegals from Somalia, Kenya, Middle East you name it. 2010 elections will be run by ACORN-SEIU-CAIR.

If McCain wins, hopefully, the moderate Dem Party takes back the party from Obama/ACORN. The Clintons hopefully fix his wagon with Fitzpatrick getting Rezko to rat him out.

In two years Obama can do devastating harm. Look what he did with CRA lawsuits and Frannie and Freddie to devastate the global financial market. Bin Laden was not able to do that.

Oh and the word from Africa from people I know who do business with high level people in dozens of countries over there is he is a Muslim. Not maybe, not was - IS. Wonder why the threats to avoid repeating that?


147 posted on 11/03/2008 7:47:44 PM PST by Frantzie
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To: graf008

I disagree. Obama will line up planes and ships to flood more illegals from Somalia, Kenya, Middle East you name it. 2010 elections will be run by ACORN-SEIU-CAIR.

If McCain wins, hopefully, the moderate Dem Party takes back the party from Obama/ACORN. The Clintons hopefully fix his wagon with Fitzpatrick getting Rezko to rat him out.

In two years Obama can do devastating harm. Look what he did with CRA lawsuits and Frannie and Freddie to devastate the global financial market. Bin Laden was not able to do that.

Oh and the word from Africa from people I know who do business with high level people in dozens of countries over there is he is a Muslim. Not maybe, not was - IS. Wonder why the threats to avoid repeating that?


148 posted on 11/03/2008 7:47:52 PM PST by Frantzie
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To: PhiKapMom

Thanks PKM for your report and your efforts. BTTT!


149 posted on 11/03/2008 7:49:49 PM PST by prairiebreeze ( Our troops DESERVE BETTER than Barack Hussein Obama!!)
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To: 2ndClassCitizen

I am not the author. Here is Dr. Marston’s bio: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=77&Itemid=99


150 posted on 11/03/2008 7:52:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s late for me, but can you tell me what P.U.M.A. stands for?


151 posted on 11/03/2008 8:07:11 PM PST by securityMama (I'm a Mississippian by choice!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s late for me, but can you tell me what P.U.M.A. stands for?


152 posted on 11/03/2008 8:07:11 PM PST by securityMama (I'm a Mississippian by choice!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
bump to the top

An Appeal to Grass Roots America Part 1!

YES WE CAN! WE CAN WIN! WE MUST WIN!


153 posted on 11/03/2008 8:09:56 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Frantzie

It’s a good point - but I don’t know why he’d hide that. I’d have nothing against electing a Muslim President if he swears to put the Constitution first (and we could impeach him for otherwise).

Mind you, we still have democratic (little D) institutions in this country and a strong checks and balances. No one President can damage the country in two years. And I think in governing style (in the few leadership positions he has had), Obama has constantly pissed off his liberal peers because he does reach out too much and doesn’t implement their radical ideals..

So two years of Obama will be heck of a lot better than two years of Kucinich, two years of Clinton (yikes), two years of Edwards or anyone else who ran on the Dem Party. Then we take back the country in partial force in two and full in three...


154 posted on 11/03/2008 8:12:06 PM PST by graf008 ("My most important function on the Supreme Court is to tell the majority to take a walk." -Scalia)
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To: prairiebreeze

Thanks - at least until its reply ;)


155 posted on 11/03/2008 8:14:20 PM PST by graf008 ("My most important function on the Supreme Court is to tell the majority to take a walk." -Scalia)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Thanks I needed that, now I can get a good nights sleep.
156 posted on 11/03/2008 8:36:59 PM PST by Big Horn (I bac Mac)
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To: Frantzie

I know McCain had more offices in key states and that we had better call centers this time around that were up to date. Being able to go on line and call was different and allowed more people to make calls this time from non-Battleground states.

This election also had more groups for McCain like McCainVictory08 which was a unofficial group of volunteers that helped all over the Country and had the McCain blogs/groups.

I got the affirmative action info when I started calling into Minnesota and getting union people. They were also big football fans of the Vikings. That was the door opener.


157 posted on 11/03/2008 8:37:34 PM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: petercooper
"What’s the deal with Iowa- Bush won it by 10,000 votes in 2004 and now O has a huge lead?"

Iraq, ethanol and the economy.

158 posted on 11/03/2008 8:46:21 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Iraq, ethanol and the economy.

I think it's just Ethanol, Ethanol and Ethanol. Seem some Iowans are being whiny about Mac not supporting their farm subsidies.

One of the few places JM acts like a conservative, and it loses him votes.

159 posted on 11/03/2008 8:49:42 PM PST by TChris (So many useful idiots...)
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To: securityMama

Party Unity My @$$


160 posted on 11/03/2008 8:51:42 PM PST by Greek
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