Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
I think that's a pretty poor/bad analogy. The race has been tightening for days now, with Obama losing ground. That's hardly being in full stride with a jockey holding him back. I'd say taht is more like being in full stride with Obama no longer responding to the whip.
While McCain maybe half a horse length behind and going all out, he is at least still responding to the whip. The question is can he pass the faltering Obama. jmo
Disaffected and really pissed-off Hillary Clinton supportors that are voting McCain/Palin. They have been running their own game plan by lying to pollsters or not responding to pollsters.
There are millions of them across the country and they are going to have a pretty major impact.
Start at the beginning of the thread and work your way through. 2nDiv posted links to only a few of their hundreds of web sites.
(Where have you been?)
I spent the time to go through Mr. Marston metholdogy which is fairly simple but it seems to be very valid.
Any people here really good in statistics that wants to review it?
Oh please.
There’s a God,and He knows more than YOU!
God bless america-with McCain/Palin!
See Post 61
I remember 1980, and I think we are looking at 1980 again.
The polls were wildly wrong then, and my guess is that the oversampling of and bizarre overweighting for the Democrats in this election cycle is just as wrong.
“Sorry... there are no Republican cat owners!”
I was gonna say,”with the exception of the Viking Kitties”,
But I momentarily forgot...they aren’t owned-they do the owning! LOL
Of tangential interest, the AOL Presidential Poll keeps putting McCain far in the lead week after week! This is in spite of AOL being so far left most of us have thrown AOL out long ago. I have been participating daily,weekly and hourly and it has really both surprized and encourged me!
Right now MAC is ahead 57% to 38% and 470+/- to (not too many):-) Any thoughts greatly appreciated........
Imagine, McCain holding up a newspaper reading, “Obama Defeats McCain,” while celebrating his election victory tommorrow night or Wednesday morning. Hold this picture in your mind and pray that it happens.
Alas- I am catless at the moment. Wish I had one sitting here while I read.
If you’re on the battlefield when things are going a little rough, do you surrender before the battle actually begins?
I say no. Never surrender!
McCain-Palin 2008
Got a 15 YO calico curled at my feet. She isn’t long for this world (benign occular melanoma and losing bladder control).
Nice warm feet for now!
Give her some scratchies for me when she wakes up.
PUMA’s effecting this election?
I have read too many press reports (as well as anecdotal stories on FR) to indicate that dems are in fact voting for McCain. They already are a factor in this election.
I have long predicted a “big” McCain win here on thread after thread, supported in part by my belief that an amazing number of Dems just cannot bring themselves to pull the lever to vote for Obama.
Dems that will have a race issue(Bradley affect), Dems that just cannot get over that he is an inexperienced rookie, Dems with regional and parochial issues (i.e. coal mining in Appalachia) and Dems who are simply pissed off Hillary supporters. I believe that this combined number could be as much as 1/3 of the 18 million Hillary supporters from the primaries.
With about 6 million crossovers in my view, (I know that this number sounds ambitious, but we should not underestimate the power of the 'scorned') the above author's predictions seem quite plausible.
When the smoke clears, the PUMAs are gong to be found to have a huge bearing on the outcome of this election, and the real depth of these PUMAs is simply not being factored into any of the inaccurate polling that we have been seeing. I stand by my prediction of a MAC win and about 6 million PUMAs will be involved in making it happen, as they should.
Yikes, start praying folks....AND VOTE.
THAT little story is the one the announcers made up because they had money on the yearling. The real horse-race is not what you heard on your old Magnavox.
And from someone else who knew Arabians, (King Solomon):
The horse is prepared for the day of battle,
But victory belongs to the LORD.
http://www.biblegateway.com/quicksearch/?quicksearch=horse+prepared+battle+victory&qs_version=49
http://www.biblegateway.com/quicksearch/?quicksearch=horse+chariot+trust&x=11&y=15
bump
Yep, tho with her, “scratchies” are 3 full levels above a demand.
I have a PUMA friend in western PA. She says she will be happy to vote for “Johnny Mac.” I’m sure there are many more like her here.
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