Posted on 11/02/2008 12:30:36 PM PST by Retired Greyhound
On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."
He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. (The campaign stopped doing its own polling after Thursday, he added, because television time through the election all had to be purchased by Friday.) However, public polls in Iowa suggest that McCain is still in a big hole. Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain's deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.
"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at swampland.blogs.time.com ...
We’ll both be too busy watching James Carville put on a Hannibal Lecter mask, or watching Chrissie and Olberman collapse into blubbering pools of protoplasm.
And it’s not like we’re standing around: in Dayton alone we have 60 designated poll watchers for the more (ahem) questionable locations.
You make an excellent point. But let’s consider this: Soem polls are just “We talked to these people and they said this” but others are run through a turnout model. If one campaign’s turnout model is more realistic than the other (and I think that ours must be because Obama has to be counting on massive youth vote and getting around 90% of the Dem voters) then only one would even be in the ballpark.
Mc is Irish
Mac is Scottish
Not always the case, though.
That is exactly what I think. I think they misunderestimate the sheer laziness of this victim class they've cultured.
This is one prediction you’ll get wrong. Carville is too much of a Clinton creature to weep too hard about this loss. No Lecter mask for him! He’ll look sad, but then he’ll go home, swear Mary to secrecy and then open some champagne.
Hey, in 2004 he put the bag over his head, remember? And he said, “I’ve got egg all over my face.” I’ll give it to serpenthead: he’s a former Marine and he will admit when he is wrong. His missives to the Dems have been brutally honest, and he was saying before anyone that Obama might have some problems.
..the public polls are really off I think.
They were off in 2000 and 2004.
So is southern Maine, unfortunately.
However, Maine splits it’s electoral votes between the state’s two congressional districts.....if John and Sarah carry northern Maine, they will get one electoral vote.
If Obama carries southern Maine, he gets one electoral vote.
The winner of the overall statewide popular vote gets an additional two electoral votes.
I don’t know what will happen. I’ll just do my part. I voted and I’ll be poll watching Tuesday.
When it becomes clear McCain has won (and they will hold off calling it for as long as is feasibly possible), the story line will quickly shift to "Republicans are racist."
They'll do all they can to burst our bubble-immediately. The moment Obama loses will be the moment they gear up for the next campaign and the theme will be that Republicans have finally shown us all they're nothing but a bunch of racists.
My condolences my FRiend....
Keep up the good fight as long as you can.
What now, Andrea Mitchell? Care to explain those blacks who don't vote for Obama? Are they racists too?
I must admit I see FAR less Obama signs, bumper stickers, etc. in the Philly suburbs than I saw for Kerry.I'm in Delaware County, and so do I. Blacks have also been driving around swiping McCain signs, and my neighbors are teed off about it.
Karl Rove is one of those Republicans who takes the polls at face value (another one is Pat Buchanan). That's a fatal flaw in Rove's thinking.
The pejorative "Mick" denotes Irish ancestry.
Basically, the Scots and Irish are fast cousins, having all originated in Ireland originally. They share a common ancient (Gaelic) tongue, and similar surnames.
Actually, I'm not sure which country the surname McCain originated in. Could be either one, though I'm guessing it's Irish.
“I doubt that the MSM will call Penn early in the evening for McCain - if he wins there - nor NH or VA.
But, if they DO NOT call those states, than I think we can take it as good news.”
My thought exactly. This will be a long night if McCain wins, which I expect.
The networks will wait, just to be sure that they do not discourage the leftists voting for a socialist US Senate.
Like to start bar room brawls, do ya?
First of all, you spelled Scots wrong. The rest was downhill from there.
I'm so proud of him!
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