POLLSTERS (AND AMERICA) ARE IN FOR A SHOCK

http://www.elections.colorado.gov/DDefault.aspx?tid=547 ^

[profit_guy]

Let's take CO for example...Mail-In & Early Voting representing approx. 56% of Total Active Voters in CO (based on Party Registration as of 8:30pm Oct 31):

D 488,575 51.2% +2.4% (RCP shows Obama +5.5%)...R 465,869 48.8%...I 336,511

Now here's where I think Obama has a BIG problem going forward in CO:

1. NOTHING has been factored in for the PUMA's. Imagine you are at a cocktail party standing around talking to 18 Hillary voters. Does anyone really think it is reasonable that not one, or two, or three, or more of those 18 voters will swing over to McCain?? (now think 18 million nationwide)

2. NOTHING has been factored in for the Bradley Effect, as well as the Muslim and Commie Effect. It's not as easy for a Black Muslim Commie to run for President as it used to be. Let's call that the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect. There will be significant Dem crossover to McCain due to this.

3. NOTHING has been factored in for Independents breaking towards McCain. Again, think the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect.

4. And this is one I have heard no one talk about. NOTHING has been factored in for what I call the Front-End Load Effect, which has been MASSIVE this year. Basically, I think Dem voters will show up in lesser proportions on election day than they have in early voting.

I invite comments to quantify the effects of 1, 2, 3 and 4. My guess is McCain wins CO by 5%. In other words, Obama is being overpolled by 10%. And if that is true across a large part of the country, and I suspect it is, then McCain wins.

SO IGNORE THE POLLS, AND GET OUT AND VOTE!

[af_vet_1981]

I have been polled three times and have told them I was going to vote for Zero-bama (cough, cough). I don't know if that was the right thing to do but it was kind of fun.

It was the wrong thing to do. I hope that explains some of the poll weirdness. There is a real danger in that though, getting a bandwagon effect among the weak-minded.

[af_vet_1981]

If that's the case, then when McCain wins, we're likely to see a HUGH surge in the stock markets. I think that would be outstanding!

My hope as well; I think about 20% of the market fall is due to Obama.

[SuziQ]

That info is amazing! I do believe McCain will win, and I’m hoping it’s by at least 4-5% more than Obama, so that there is no question of fraud, even though the MSM and consipiracy nuts will still claim that.

[kcvl]

Anyone who is registered at pumapac.org can post the answer to Zee’s question about where Obama said Wright ‘brought him to Jesus’. It was in Obama’s book.

******

Rev Wright brought him to Jesus - something he claimed in his book

[Dick Holmes]

You're cherrypicking. There were a lot of polls that underestimated Obama in the primaries, too. Obama outperformed as often as he underperformed the primary polls.

Virginia, for instance, Ras as you call them had Obama up by 18. He won by 28%. All 4 polls were low, averaging +17, more than ten points lower than Obama actually did.

[1035rep]

Go Mac!

Go Bradley!

[Faith]

Re #57 - You were right in so many ways. Congrats!