Posted on 11/02/2008 7:18:33 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
we're winning!
Predictions are based on comparing areas' returns to past returns. Several 'bellwether' Va precincts have turned more Dem and the media will base early calls on them.
But those Reps who used to live in those areas are still in Va, and still voting in other precincts. And the Dem voters in those areas are no longer voting in their old precincts.
We've had a lot of movement of our population internally. Past 'belwethers' are not today's.
So early calls of Va can 'legitimately' be made on flawed data- expect the media to do so.
Vote and help a friend vote and we ll win. It's gonna be turnout that decides Virginia's vote and the future of our country, even of the world!
I'm sensing an Obamaton pop-up. Who do you think you're fooling?
They're scam artists..professional scam artists but scam artists non the less.
Doesn't 'sprize me a bit!! ;-)
Folks,
Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, etc. used to be solid red states which the GOP need not have worried about.
The fact that McCain is fighting for his life in these states is not a good sign.
I’m sensing an Obamaton pop-up. Who do you think you’re fooling?
“I’m pretty disappointed in Republicans right now, and I don’t think John McCain is offering a lot that’s new,” said Morris, a retired Navy captain who lives in Chesterfield County, a prosperous Richmond suburb. “But frankly, I’m scared of Obama and some of the things he’s been talking about.””
This guy was a Navy Captain, in charge of the safety of his ship?
I wouldn’t want to be on any ship that HE was commanding.
The guy is “scared”? But can’t come to a decision this late? What would he do “on the bridge”?
Captain Queeg, please pick up the courtesy phone!
- John
“The military absentee ballots WILL BE COUNTED!”
Good news!
How can the fact that Virginia, which hasn't gone for a Democrat since 1964, is too close to call look at all good for a Republican? McCain should be up by 10 or more in this state.
What part of 'retired' is so hard for you to comprehend?
Hey FReepers just to be clear this new guy just told a big fat whopper!
“I’m seeing a disturbingly large number of Obama signs in Stafford (solidly Republican county). More seemed to pop-up overnight. Could be that the Obamatons are sensing victory and are “coming out of the closet”.”
Not true!
Less than 48 hours!!! One final push to save the U.S.A.!
The challenge:
Between NOW and election day, convince at least two Obama/Undecided voters to vote for McCain. (family, neighbors, friends, people waiting in the check-out line) Further, convince these two people (or two others) to take up the same challenge. (Like a chain letter)
So you have converted people in the past? Good, but we need more!
Many Obama supporters are mindlessly supporting him, with no real reason, this means it is VERY easy to get them to switch over. Even if you fail, other Obama/undecideds may be in the room and hear valid arguments and question their faith in the One.
Don’t kick yourself a week from now saying “I could’ve done more....”
Do your part...your country depends on it!
lol
Hero-Hottie vs. Zero-Pluggie?
Right!
Or a riot when he loses.....Turning 1,000,000 lose on the people of the "Region".
What’s the real deal with VA? When in fear, take some comfort in Numbers.
In 2004:
A total of 3,192,894 people voted. Virginia has estimated a total of 400,000 new legal voters. Voting population is approximately 5 Million.. Voter turnout was around 69% in 2004 and it is expected to be the low 70’s for this election.
The makeup of 2004 was +39R +35 D +26I
Bush Retained 95% of GOP voters, Kerry 92% of Dems
Indies split for Bush 54-44
Fast forward to 2006 Senate Race
Only, 2,364,217 or 50% of VA’s voting population actually came out to vote.
The makeup was +39R +36D +26I
Allen Retained 94% of GOP voters, Webb got 93%
Independents broke for Webb 56-44
Interesting results, in that while this was an off year for GOP, lack of Democrat enthusiasm in VA offset any weird voting trends. So that gives us 2 cycles of clear voting data.
PS> Tim Kaine got even less votes than Jim Webb (just over 1 million).
So based on all the data above, it’s been evident that even in off years, more GOP voters come out to vote.
Given the information above, it is safe to say the GOP will be at least +39 for this election. For the Democrats, probably +37 and Independents +24
Both Bush/Allen and Kerry/Webb’s retention of Party Voters is incredible. It is hard to see either party exceeding these amounts. For this reason, I’m going to give McCain 92% (a safe lower estimate). For Obama, this is one state he may actually get 89-90% Dem support (I’ll go with 90). That leaves it to independents:
Assuming 3,600,000 voters:
GOP
McCain 92% of 39% of 3,600,000 = 1,291,680
Obama 8% of 39% of 3,600,000 = 112,320
DEM
McCain 10% of 37% of 3,600,000 = 133,200
Obama 90% of 37% of 3,600,000 = 1,198,800
That makes it: McCain 1,424,880 Obama 1,311,120
That magical 50% mark would be 1,800,000 votes. So of the 24% of Independents, under this scenario, Obama would need to carry 488,880 of the 936,000 estimated independent votes or 52%. Kerry got only 44%. Webb got 55%. Unfortunately, this number is possible for Obama to obtain. BUT…if Independents/Undecided break for McCain, that challenge becomes a lot more daunting.
Oh, and in order for Obama to win VA by the 6+ points the polls are suggesting, he would have would 64% of Independents (11 points more than Webb or Kaine). Now I ask you, is that realistic?
These numbers I used are low-balling numbers to show the worst possible case scenario for McCain above. In essence, if McCain wins at least 48% of Indies, he’ll win VA.
Now go out and VOTE!
CHeck out this (good laug/ but true) on the Margin of Error:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117123/posts
“The Homecoming Ticket!”
think what makes you feel better but this election if it is to be won by McCain will be won by huge GOP turnout not simply by the notion that evry single poll is now wrong.
a month ago when McCain had a slight lead after the RNC and Palin nomination, the polls were believed
now that it’s turned against us after the Wall Street collapse and Obama and the Media’s fairly successful strategery to blame Bush and hence McCain, the polls are all bogus and wrong
I agree they almost all lean Democrat and some are crazy weighed Democrat but I don’t think every single tracking poll in America is part of a conspiracy
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