Posted on 11/01/2008 8:21:56 PM PDT by mathwhizz
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.
J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.
"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."
Obama voters on the other hand have a compulsion to shout it from the rooftops.
Hopefully it’s b/c they don’t want to admit they’re voting for McCain.
It’s hip and cool to be for 0bama, so they’ll admit it easier.
The second poll (VA and FL) to make some note of all the white undecided voters. I think they are covering themselves because they see McCain is going to win. They can explain away all the bad polls this year with the Bradley effect. “Our methods were scientific and well grounded but we could not account for the Bradley effect (will read as racism to dems) that was out there.” Its almost like they want to incite violence when McCain wins.
Are they showing wright ads there now.....?
Just got back from the Palin rally in Richmond. Had a great time!
my family went to the springfield rally in VA earlier today. What was quite inspiring were the number of minority groups in the crowd supporting the ticket. Not your usual sprinkling either...support and excitement was huge and almost no lefties outside protesting. The strangest group we noticed were the lyndon Larouche people.
If true it means VA stays R.
McCain’s taking PA, FL, OH, MO, VA guaranteed folks. Undecideds are going to break overwhelmingly for him and I am willing to state that I doubt Fauxbama will even get his polled numbers in many states.
McCain will also flip at least 1 more rust belt state. There is no path to the White House for Fauxbama.
Tuesday, the MSM, Fauxbama et al will be getting the collective finger by the American electorate, and democrats will cry and scream and claim foul. But McCain is not only going to win, he’s going to win by a much larger margin than GW in 04.
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