Posted on 11/01/2008 2:21:40 PM PDT by Josh Painter
In a recent posting, I went on the record to say that John McCain should win the presidential election Tuesday, and I listed five reasons which lead me to this conclusion. They are media bias, pollster oversampling of Democrats, Obama campaign hubris, the Democrat candidate's many suspect associations and the fact that the American electorate has a center-right majority.
There is a sixth reason to believe that the GOP candidate will pull this one out of the fire, and, like the other five, it is a topic you won't read much about in the newspapers or see on the alphabet television networks, all of which are in the tank for Obama. It's the PUMA factor.
PUMA is an acronym which stands for Party Unity My *ss. Backers of Sen. Hillary Clinton formed this "un-party" when they felt their candidate got a raw deal in the race for the Democrat Party's presidential nomination. In their view, party chairman Howard Dean and the Obama campaign conspired to prevent Sen. Clinton from winning the contest. They did not jump ship at the time, however, and most of them could have been persuaded to back Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign. All Obama needed to do to secure their support was to name Sen. Clinton as his running mate, a course of action many of his advisors had recommended.
Obama, however, would have none of that. Showing his thin skin over some of the remarks Sen. Clinton had made about him in the rough and tumble of the primary contest, Obama, who saw eye to eye with his wife Michelle on the matter, rejected Clinton and invited Sen. Joe Biden instead to join him on the ticket. The decision left many scratching their heads. Biden had a long-held reputation for his runaway mouth, and his highly-toouted foreign policy expertise has been tarnished by such bad thinking as sending, no strings attached, a $200 Million check to Iran as a sign of America's good will, partitioning Iraq along sectarian and ethnic lines and some other really bad ideas. A Clinton selection would have made the Democrat ticket a formidable one, and, in the opinion of many political junkies, one which would have been hard for John McCain to beat. As a result, Obama finds himself just days before the election, in a year when a Democrat sweep was supposed to be a sure thing, unable to close the deal and locked in a very close race with McCain.
In years past, political candidates have made peace with their primary opponents, no matter how bitter the primary struggle or how far apart they may have been on both style and substance, to form unity tickets which rolled on to victory. John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson did it, as did Ronald W. Reagan and George H.W. Bush. But Obama, who has repeatedly shown that he cannot take the sort of criticism that his campaign regularly dishes out, failed to rise to the occasion. This failure to bury the hatchet and get on with the business of winning an election was a fatal mistake. Obama made some enemies who will not forgive nor forget. Although Sen. Clinton has made a public show of support for the Obama campaign, this is not true of many of her supporters. As payback for what they see as misogyny and pettiness toward Clinton, they have committed themselves to the effort to elect his opponent.
There are many PUMA sites on the web, too many to try to link to here. But a good start would be to go here and here. PUMAs have also joined with other disaffected Democrats, independents and Republicans in forming associations opposed to Obama. These are the "NOBAMA" coalitions, some of which can be found on the internet here and here. The hottest of all the many PUMA web addresses is this one: Hillbuzz.com.
The big question is how many PUMAs are there among the electorate? Not all of the 18 million who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries will vote for John McCain. But it is difficult to pin down the exact number of those who will mark their ballots for the Republican. This is because many of them are intentionally concealing this fact by telling pollsters when called that they will vote for Obama, although their intention is clearly to vote against him, i.e., for McCain. Others from their ranks are telling the pollsters that they are independent and undecided. Still others will say outright that they are going to vote for McCain. If this seems somewhat confusing, that is the general idea - don't give the Obama campaign's oppo people any useful intel.
The Associated Press estimates that four in ten of what they call "persuadables" are voters who are counted as undecided but had voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries. In recent national polls, Obama had the support of 88% of Democrats. How many of those are stealth PUMAs on the prowl is anyone's guess. But what should be even more troubling for the Obama campaign can be found in the internals of the latest Rassmussen poll of Pennsylvania. Obama is only drawing 75% of that state's Democrats. The junior senator from Illinois cannot win the Keystone State with that much softness in his base support.
Each state is unique, of course, and you can't transplant trends from one state into another or carry them over to the national picture as assumptions. But if McCain can pick up four or five of every seven undecideds, and if just two or three percent of those who say they will vote for Obama actually mark their ballots the other way (which would account for the stealth PUMAs and those who are afraid to say they are for McCain for fear of being branded as "racist"), he will win this election.
In just a few days, the roar of the wildcats known as PUMAs may be a very loud one indeed. Add to it the responsive chord struck by Joe the Plumber, who has made many blue collar workers, with their upwardly mobile dreams of owning their own small businesses some day, step out of the shadows. Add also the resounding sound of a previously unexcited conservative base which Sarah Palin has single-handedly mobilized, and John McCain could be hearing some sweet music Tuesday night.
- JP
Thanks. Got your blog bookmarked now, and will check in regularly.
Yes, I’m all too aware of what an Obamunist presidency would mean for Windflier the Energy Guy.
I’ll be making calls for McCain/Palin tomorrow to help see that he doesn’t come anywhere near the White House.
I was out a little while ago on a heavily used road and guess what I saw?
Democrats for McCain
Women for McCain
Democrats for McCain
Women for McCain
Democrats for McCain
Women for McCain
They were perfectly spaced out; I lost count of how many there were. We’ve been PUMA’d!!!!!!
>>Did you sign up in Sept. just to post this garbage?<<
I’m just calling ‘em as I see ‘em.
I make my living with networks and the Internet. There are more hoaxes on the ‘net than there are fact.
When it seems to good to be true.......
And fact is, I’ve not seen a single sign of Democrats for McCain around Des Moines. Yeah, you read about it here, but then why can’t they be found in real life?
Come on, we’ve all seen these so-called confessions all over the place. Why are real names or faces never put with them, and why doesn’t someone say “I can confirm it, I work with this person”.
I hope it’s true, but I guess I’m more of a Reagan - trust but verify........ I don’t trust them. And we know Obama people will SAY and DO anything. Even Rush is not sure what to make of that one....
The city (Des Moines) and where we work are full of Democrats who believe anything...... but the hours are good and the benefits good, and our own neighborhood is more McCain (live in the country) with vets for McCain, etc.
“I’ve not seen any real names, real situations that can be verified.”
LMAO - I’m surrounded by them in Appalachia! You need phone numbers?
Never, ever underestimate the power of a woman. Or in this case, women!
If you guys can verify and see it, I’ll believe it. But to read some of the posts on these other blogs and forums, you can tell they’ve been “infiltrated”.
“you just can’t be too careful”.
Obama employs and pays hundreds if not thousands and they have scripts to follow. There’s no saying what they would “plant” out there.
I dunno what’s wrong with Des Moines, other than the Polk County bunch IS corrupt and has been for years.
“But to read some of the posts on these other blogs and forums, you can tell they’ve been “infiltrated”.
“you just can’t be too careful”.
Obama employs and pays hundreds if not thousands and they have scripts to follow. There’s no saying what they would “plant” out there.”
Really? Are there clues to look for? You seem to know a lot about it.
You seem to know a lot about it. I mean, I guess I don’t get out much and just kinda hang around here.
Brilliant comment! Lucy, a must-read for your ping list please.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2121989/replies?c=24
Thank you, Fred Nerks.
Ping.
“This is not a transitory phenomenon; this is a sea-change”:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2121989/posts?page=24#24
I trust that they will not vote for Obama. Some will vote for McCain, some for third-party candidates, and some not at all. I would expect very few to actually vote for Obama.
As for the extent to which they've actually lied to pollsters, that will probably remain unknown until late November 4 when solid results come in. Letting it be known that they're going to jinx the polls is probably a good strategy; it's unclear whether it's better to actually jinx the polls or just let people think they're jinxed. My guess is that actual deliberate jinxing of the polls is not a major factor, but selection bias is huge.
My hope and expectation is that Obama's strategies will prove to be much more effective at improving his 'unofficial' polling numbers than in improving his 'official' polling (i.e. election) results. He may intimidate Democrat defectors from telling pollsters of their intention, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for him.
Do you mean hillbuzz.wordpress.com ? Hillbuzz.com is a parked domain.
All I did was click the link that Josh Painter provided at the beginning of this thread. He listed it as Hillbuzz.com. But I just went back and clicked it again and you're right, it actually links to Hillbuzz.wordpress.com. A pox on Josh Painter!! /s
Bump Dat...
Well, if the PUMAs are so attached to HRC, they’ll have to help defeat Obama. If Obama is elected, HRC has lost her chance at the WH for good, in all likelihood. So they undoubtedly realize that must support McCain now.
“Well, if the PUMAs are so attached to HRC, they’ll have to help defeat Obama. If Obama is elected, HRC has lost her chance at the WH for good, in all likelihood. So they undoubtedly realize that must support McCain now.”
If Obama wins, Hillary gets a seat on the Supreme Court. If he loses she gets to run in 2012. I hope they come through for McCain and that Hillary gets creamed in 2012.
Her Royal Thighness on the Supreme Court? Anyone who appoints her to the SCOTUS would be making a mockery of it. Her legal resume is pretty darn thin. Well, then too is Obama’s entire resume - considering he’s running for the highest office in the land. HRC isn’t exactly Obama’s best friend.
Thanks for the ping!
Welcome to Free Republic!
We’re glad to have you here. ;o)
I’ve been following the PUMAs since a bit before Hillary conceded.
I can’t tell you how impressed I am with y’all.
I just saw an article on Drudge where Hillary says, “Obama must be our President... “. The thought of her on the Supreme Court is pretty scary.
The appearance of Sarah Palin surely threw a scare into Hillary. Here is a woman much more appealing and likable than cold, hard Hillary. Whatever happens I hope the pubs keep grooming Sarah for the future.
Hillary had no experience except hanging on to Bubba’s coat-tail.
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