Posted on 11/01/2008 2:21:40 PM PDT by Josh Painter
In a recent posting, I went on the record to say that John McCain should win the presidential election Tuesday, and I listed five reasons which lead me to this conclusion. They are media bias, pollster oversampling of Democrats, Obama campaign hubris, the Democrat candidate's many suspect associations and the fact that the American electorate has a center-right majority.
There is a sixth reason to believe that the GOP candidate will pull this one out of the fire, and, like the other five, it is a topic you won't read much about in the newspapers or see on the alphabet television networks, all of which are in the tank for Obama. It's the PUMA factor.
PUMA is an acronym which stands for Party Unity My *ss. Backers of Sen. Hillary Clinton formed this "un-party" when they felt their candidate got a raw deal in the race for the Democrat Party's presidential nomination. In their view, party chairman Howard Dean and the Obama campaign conspired to prevent Sen. Clinton from winning the contest. They did not jump ship at the time, however, and most of them could have been persuaded to back Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign. All Obama needed to do to secure their support was to name Sen. Clinton as his running mate, a course of action many of his advisors had recommended.
Obama, however, would have none of that. Showing his thin skin over some of the remarks Sen. Clinton had made about him in the rough and tumble of the primary contest, Obama, who saw eye to eye with his wife Michelle on the matter, rejected Clinton and invited Sen. Joe Biden instead to join him on the ticket. The decision left many scratching their heads. Biden had a long-held reputation for his runaway mouth, and his highly-toouted foreign policy expertise has been tarnished by such bad thinking as sending, no strings attached, a $200 Million check to Iran as a sign of America's good will, partitioning Iraq along sectarian and ethnic lines and some other really bad ideas. A Clinton selection would have made the Democrat ticket a formidable one, and, in the opinion of many political junkies, one which would have been hard for John McCain to beat. As a result, Obama finds himself just days before the election, in a year when a Democrat sweep was supposed to be a sure thing, unable to close the deal and locked in a very close race with McCain.
In years past, political candidates have made peace with their primary opponents, no matter how bitter the primary struggle or how far apart they may have been on both style and substance, to form unity tickets which rolled on to victory. John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson did it, as did Ronald W. Reagan and George H.W. Bush. But Obama, who has repeatedly shown that he cannot take the sort of criticism that his campaign regularly dishes out, failed to rise to the occasion. This failure to bury the hatchet and get on with the business of winning an election was a fatal mistake. Obama made some enemies who will not forgive nor forget. Although Sen. Clinton has made a public show of support for the Obama campaign, this is not true of many of her supporters. As payback for what they see as misogyny and pettiness toward Clinton, they have committed themselves to the effort to elect his opponent.
There are many PUMA sites on the web, too many to try to link to here. But a good start would be to go here and here. PUMAs have also joined with other disaffected Democrats, independents and Republicans in forming associations opposed to Obama. These are the "NOBAMA" coalitions, some of which can be found on the internet here and here. The hottest of all the many PUMA web addresses is this one: Hillbuzz.com.
The big question is how many PUMAs are there among the electorate? Not all of the 18 million who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries will vote for John McCain. But it is difficult to pin down the exact number of those who will mark their ballots for the Republican. This is because many of them are intentionally concealing this fact by telling pollsters when called that they will vote for Obama, although their intention is clearly to vote against him, i.e., for McCain. Others from their ranks are telling the pollsters that they are independent and undecided. Still others will say outright that they are going to vote for McCain. If this seems somewhat confusing, that is the general idea - don't give the Obama campaign's oppo people any useful intel.
The Associated Press estimates that four in ten of what they call "persuadables" are voters who are counted as undecided but had voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries. In recent national polls, Obama had the support of 88% of Democrats. How many of those are stealth PUMAs on the prowl is anyone's guess. But what should be even more troubling for the Obama campaign can be found in the internals of the latest Rassmussen poll of Pennsylvania. Obama is only drawing 75% of that state's Democrats. The junior senator from Illinois cannot win the Keystone State with that much softness in his base support.
Each state is unique, of course, and you can't transplant trends from one state into another or carry them over to the national picture as assumptions. But if McCain can pick up four or five of every seven undecideds, and if just two or three percent of those who say they will vote for Obama actually mark their ballots the other way (which would account for the stealth PUMAs and those who are afraid to say they are for McCain for fear of being branded as "racist"), he will win this election.
In just a few days, the roar of the wildcats known as PUMAs may be a very loud one indeed. Add to it the responsive chord struck by Joe the Plumber, who has made many blue collar workers, with their upwardly mobile dreams of owning their own small businesses some day, step out of the shadows. Add also the resounding sound of a previously unexcited conservative base which Sarah Palin has single-handedly mobilized, and John McCain could be hearing some sweet music Tuesday night.
- JP
bttt
I believe in the PUMA effect. I also think that the drastic increase in the refuse to be polled percentage is a symptom of the Democrats being disaffected with their party and the alphabet “poop”.
I just received this gem from my favorite folks at moveon.org. I hope it is ok to post - i have a broken leg and my computer access is sporadic at best right now:
“Here’s some ominous news: In the last week, Obama’s lead in the national tracking polls has dropped by almost three points. If it keeps dropping, we could be looking at four years of President McCain and Vice President Palin.
Now, don’t panic yet. Obama’s still ahead. But if you thought it didn’t matter whether you helped the campaign this weekend, think again. The election looks like it’ll be very, very close. If folks start thinking that Obama’s got this one licked, and he doesn’t really need their vote—well, we could be in big trouble.”
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I agree. Here’s my list. Some of them are repeats of what you said.
Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected why McPalin will win from visiting FR way too much.
1) ACORN has been stuffing the Democratic registration lists for years now, especially this year. Pollsters use these stuffed registered-voter lists to poll real people, so if the lists read 60%D, 40%R, the pollster will poll 60 Ds for every 40 Rs. If every D were for Obama and every R were for McCain, Obama ought to be ahead by 20 points in the polls He’s not! Ergo, McCain is actually ahead and doesn’t know it!
1.1) The press (AP, MSNBC) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts
1.8) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
1.85) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
1.9) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
2) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!
3) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
4) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
5) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
6) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
7) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
8) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
9) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
10) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
11) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
12) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
13) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
14) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
15) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.html Long time Democrat votesrs are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
16) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
17) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
18) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
19) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
20) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
21) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
22) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
23) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
24) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
25) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
26) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
27) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
28) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
2) vote
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
The great unknown, of course, is whether the hoardes of inner city folks (turn on Fox News right now and watch the five hour lines of Obama worshipers early voting in Indiana) will outnumber those (both Repubs and Dems) who can see Obama for the anti-American catastrophe he is.
Hardworking Americans trying to keep our culture and business all American
vs
inner city folks oobosessed with electing a black president so they can ‘right the financial wrongs’ of 150 years ago.... and they don’t have a clue as to Obama’s anti-American background.for.
This PUMA is in GA and she’s not the only one! :)
I did move back here from PA last year though... I wish I’d waited!!
a lot of the PUMAs are more positive and optimistic about mccain/palin winning than a lot of so-called conservatives.
PUMAs, show us what you got. Don’t let us down...
The key question...how much effect will they have?
They may known something conservatives don’t know. Namely, how many PUMAs are lying to the pollsters about voting for Obama but will really vote for McCain.
More that backs up the PUMA phenomenon:
Excerpt: “..Strategic Vision polling in the key battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and non-traditional battleground states such as New Jersey indicate that 25% to 35% of Hillary Clinton supporters will not vote for Barack Obama and might consider voting for John McCain based upon his running mate. ..”
Read on:
Death Threats Sent to Pollster
National Review ^ | 10/24/2008 | Jim Geraghty
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJkOGI1MjZjZDdjYjBmNWRiZTQ2ZDAyMTZhZTI5M2I=
After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company http://www.strategicvision.biz/home.html received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.
David Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, shared the messages with National Review Online.
One of the messages stated:
My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!
Another stated:
A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.
A third message stated:
Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.
The company has contacted the FBI and appropriate authorities, Johnson said. There was, thankfully, nothing in the messages that indicated that the sender had actually sought out the location of the company or its employees. Johnson noted that while the messages came from different addresses, they all came within a short period of time, and that it was possible they were from the same person.
Johnson said he’s not fearful, but taking appropriate measures.
“It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this,” Johnson said. “It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of ‘your numbers are wrong, the other guy’s numbers are right’ all the time. But this has never happened before.”
*
My comment:
Let’s not forget that this is the polling company that in 2007 predicted the McCain/Palin ‘08 Republican ticket, a year before McCain picked his VP running mate:
Strategic Vision Pollster Predicted Palin VP Pick last year
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Pollster_Predicted_Palin_/2008/08/30/126415.html?utm_medium=RSS
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC http://www.strategicvision.biz/home.html accurately predicted the presidential nomination of Arizona Senator John McCain in 2007 on POTUS Radio when all political experts had written McCain’s obituary.
Johnson also predicted that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be McCain’s running mate in March 2007.
Johnson reiterated that Palin would be the candidate following Barack Obama’s selection of Joseph Biden as his running mate.
Johnson based his predictions upon polling done by Strategic Vision, LLC in key battleground states and his own political expertise of over twenty years.
“Based upon our polling in key battleground states in 2007 and early 2008, all indicators pointed to John McCain as the only plausible Republican presidential nominee,” said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. “Our polling showed that McCain was the second choice of the other candidate’s supporters particularly in Florida which really made McCain’s nomination possible.
Our polling in 2008 have shown that Barack Obama underperforms among female voters particularly in the states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that provides an opening for Senator McCain,” continued Johnson.
“Additionally, John McCain has a unique opportunity to present the future of the Republican Party in his vice presidential selection.
All of this indicated a strong dedicated conservative that would be outside of the box and Sarah Palin headed that list along with her appeal to social and fiscal conservatives and her moving life story.
Strategic Vision polling in the key battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and non-traditional battleground states such as New Jersey indicate that 25% to 35% of Hillary Clinton supporters will not vote for Barack Obama and might consider voting for John McCain based upon his running mate.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Friday, October 24, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2114397/posts?page=24#24
I didn’t really think much about PUMA till the other day. I mean I heard about them but I figured it was such a small number it didn’t really change much vote wise. After looking into it though, I realize there is a huge amount of them out there. I see these people as this election’s Reagan Democrats
Follow the links to the PUMA sites. There are many posts describing how PUMAs have told pollsters, or intend to tell them if called, that they will vote for Obama when they intend to vote for McCain.
One important aspect of the PUMAs is the stealth factor. As the author notes, many of them have been told to lie to pollsters. Hence, nobody really knows what their effect will be. Let’s hope a big surprise in the negative direction for King Obama.
Great analysis, Jay. It’s good to see you posting. I was just wondering what you were up to last night.
Me, I’m just running my mouth here at FR.
WF
I think there are a lot of people putting out false information, playing psychological games with us ALL, on both sides. There are pumas, but there are also folks on both sides claiming to be pumas. There are also repubs pretending to be pumas with “inside information,” to lift our spirits.
The bottom line-
Ignore the polls and vote.
Stand your arses in a mile long line (in freezing rain if you must), but VOTE. Don’t listen to media, polls, etc.
VOTE! (um, unless you are voting for Obama).
If you find yourself standing in line just before polls close and someone in line or on the radio claims your state has already been called for McCain or Obama, DON’T LISTEN, vote anyway! (Errr, um, unless you are voting for Obama).
Whether we win or lose, a state, we want our numbers to show that there are a LOT of us who do NOT support “the ONE.” He needs to know that there are many, many, MANY of us who are ANGRY and are NOT fooled by him! Don’t look at the polls, don’t read the headlines! VOTE!
Errr, um, unless you are voting for Obama). </soapbox>
The main hope I have is that Democrats, when they answer the phone for an anonymous pollster, are scared to tell them they support McCain....
Out of fear they will get put on the Democrat/union blacklist.
After all, I never tell a pollster the truth (have only been polled once nationally, and several times locally)
I like the thought of screwing up their results.
Amigo! How the hail yeah have you been?
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