Florida focus falls on turnout, Hispanic vote (5 new McCain-Palin FL Rallies)

Miami Herald ^ | November 1, 2008 | Mary Ellen Klas

[flattorney]

- - In the final stretch of the campaign, John McCain is trying to hold on to Florida's Hispanic voters, while Barack Obama is focused on getting Democrats to the polls.

The ghosts of elections past emerged in Florida on Friday as Al Gore stumped for Barack Obama and John McCain's campaign vowed to match George W. Bush's record ad-spending and absentee-ballot success. In the final weekend before Election Day, Florida remains in play as one of the most pivotal states in the nation for the presidential race. Both campaigns have focused their battleground strategy on trying to avoid the pitfalls of 2000 -- when Gore lost to Bush in Florida by 537 votes -- and in 2004, when Bush trounced John Kerry despite unparalleled voter-registration efforts by Democrats.

McCain -- scheduled to come to Miami on Sunday -- will be trying to hold on to Miami-Dade's Hispanic voters and win over swing voters along the Interstate 4 corridor. Obama is focused on turnout -- making sure the 657,000 new Democratic voters and the 1.6 million Florida Democrats who sat out the 2004 election get to the polls this time. ''It's going to be obviously a ferocious four days here,'' said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager on Friday. ``We've got a lot of voters to turn out . . . And there's still a decent number of undecided voters out there.'' In 2004, Plouffe noted, Republicans won the early vote and the absentee vote. This year, he said, Obama has the edge. He said Democrats outnumber Republicans with a 200,000-vote edge in both early voting and absentee ballot returns as of Thursday night. McCain's campaign counters that absentee vote requests from Republicans exceed those from Democrats, which could give the GOP a boost when votes are counted. Record television ad buys this week, ''electrifying'' crowds for running mate Sarah Palin and a solid ground game add up to ''one of the greatest comebacks since John McCain won the primary,'' Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said Friday.

A poll also released Friday provided one sign that McCain may be trailing behind President Bush's 2004 benchmark among Hispanic voters in Florida. The exit poll of more than 8,683 voters was paid for by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Associates and showed that McCain is winning 69 percent of voters in Miami-Dade who were born in Cuba, compared to Bush's 78 percent in 2004. The poll does not include results from the GOP-heavy absentee ballots but shows that while McCain is leading overall among Hispanic voters 53 to 47 percent, in Miami-Dade, Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans favor McCain. Respondents born in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, the Honduras, the Dominican Republican and Puerto Rico lean toward Obama. To shore up support among this once-reliable Republican voting bloc, the McCain campaign has enlisted former Gov. Jeb Bush to tape an ad to run on Spanish radio this weekend and is hosting a rally Sunday at the University of Miami with Cuban-American singers.

McCain is mounting another line of defense along the battleground region of Central Florida's I-4 corridor, where Palin will headline three rallies on Saturday. McCain will return for one last push through Miami on Sunday and then start his seven-state road trip on Monday with a rally in Tampa.

Meanwhile, Obama's focus remains on trying to get the surge of new Democratic voters his campaign helped register as well as what his campaign calls ''sporadic'' voters to show up on Election Day. Hillary Clinton will campaign for him in rallies in Orlando and Miami on Saturday. Obama running mate, Joe Biden, will host rallies to get out the youth vote in Tallahassee, Gainesville and Daytona Beach, and Obama returns to Florida for a final push in Jacksonville on Monday. At rallies in West Palm Beach and Coconut Creek on Friday, Gore and his wife Tipper reminded voters of the importance of every vote. Gore lost his presidential bid in 2000 by 537 votes after dimpled ballots, hanging chads and ultimately a U.S. Supreme Court decision to stop a 36-day recount handed the election to George W. Bush. ''The economy started going down on Jan. 20, 2000, and I know,'' Gore joked to an audience of about 200 in West Palm Beach, home of the infamous butterfly ballot. ``I was the first one laid off.'' Then, he grew somber: ''Don't let anyone take your vote away from you or talk you into taking it away,'' he said. ``Go and vote early in Florida. Vote early. Take people with you to the polls. Make sure every vote is voted.''

[flattorney]

The Miami Herald endorses Obama for President

McCain-Palin Florida "Road to Victory" Rallies:

--- John McCain ---
Bank United Center: University of Miami
1245 Dauer Drive
Coral Gables , FL 33134
November 2, 2008 7:30 p.m.

Outside of Raymond James Stadium
4201 N. Dale Mabry Highway
Tampa , FL33607
November 3, 2008 6:00 a.m.

--- Sarah Palin ---
Sims Park
Corner of Grand Blvd & Bank Street
New Port Richey , FL 34652
November 1, 2008 6:00 a.m.

Fantasy of Flight
1400 Broadway Blvd, SE
Polk City , FL 33868
November 1, 2008 9:00 a.m.

West Port High School
3733 SW 80th Avenue
Ocala , FL 34481
November 1, 2008 12:00 p.m

MAR

[bucephalus]

I think we’ll take Florida.

[Rome2000]

Bush beat Kerry by 300,000 votes statewide in Fl 2004.

Kerry beat Bush in Palm Beach and Broward however, by 400,000 votes, mostly Jewish votes.

Looks like McCain will pick up at least half of those.

Its not even going to be close in FL.

[Elkiejg]

“Kerry beat Bush in Palm Beach and Broward however, by 400,000 votes, mostly Jewish votes.

Looks like McCain will pick up at least half of those.”

You would think with Obama’s ties to radicals who hate Israel those folks in Palm Beach, Boca Raton, etc. would have enough smarts to vote against him!!

[nathanbedford]

As a part time resident of Broward County Florida to which I will return after the election for the winter, I would like to make some observations about the situation in that pivotal county.

Miami, Dade and Broward counties in South Florida have become virtual suburbs of New York City. Indeed, there were many people who used to commute by airplane back and forth to work in New Jersey and New York. Perhaps that still continues. The demographics of Broward County as well as the other two counties have turned heavily Jewish, increasingly Hispanic and black. It is however, the Jewish component which establishes the political climate in the intellectual sense for the area.

10 years ago when Clinton was on the ropes for the Lewinsky affair, the Democrats, especially Jewish Democrats, in Broward rallied to his defense because demographically, they already were in favor of sex without consequences and abortion without guilt. They saw the attack on Clinton to be an attack on those values. They defended Clinton as did the black component of the Democrats in the area, the Hispanics to a lesser extent. Can one conceive of a more intellectually fatuous point of view than to defend Bill Clinton for his crimes and his sodomies in the Oval Office? Yet that was done in the teeth of reason and common sense-and they won that war! They made Ken Starr, not Bill Clinton, look ridiculous.

In the decades since, the demographics have so fixed the intellectual climate that it is now virtually impossible to profess being a Bush supporter, or even a Republican. The Democrats have succeeded in burlesquing Bush to the degree that one risks humiliation by openly supporting him and, by extension, his administration and even his party.

Our dilemma is that a time lapse photography study of the national map shows that when a state turns blue it never turns red again. There is no hope that Broward County will turn red again in my lifetime. The likelihood is that these counties together with some other heavily populated pockets in Florida will turn that state irretrievably red. Florida is only one of the many states on which McCain is currently compelled to play defense and only one of many states which, if lost, bar him from any hope of winning the White House. Elections are not won on defense.

I have no doubt that the Broward County Florida story is being repeated in countless other counties in places we do not even know are being undermined. It is bad enough in places which we can see going down the drain like Northern Virginia but we may be shocked by the election returns in places in the Rocky Mountains and in the border states. We know what is happening in Colorado and New Mexico.

To bring this back to Broward County and to think of it as a paradigm for the whole election map, we need a way of making conservative values respectable there. The problem is, we had a president who permitted himself to become a punching bag thus taking down the whole party apparatus with him. We have no intellectual underpinning for conservatism in academia to speak of. Our think tanks Such As Heritage foundation do wonderful work but there's just not enough intellectual backbone available to elevate conservatism to a position of respectability, especially among Jews in Broward County and elsewhere. Talk radio has its place but providing intellectual cover is not one of them.

It is impossible to overstate the crippling effect that the lack of intellectual credibility has on a political movement. It is not a question of whether conservatism lacks intellectual integrity, rather it is a question purely of perception. The Bill Clinton saga proved that. We simply fail to make a respectable showing. Just as Bush permitted himself to become an object of public ridicule without defending himself or his party, so we have ceded the intellectual contest by default. No more proof of this is needed than a cursory look at the state of academia from kindergarten through postgraduate work.

On the other hand, it was possible for the Clintonites to save Bill Clinton from being convicted in impeachment. They even obtained a majority of votes for the presidency in the next election. Thereafter, George Bush undermined the intellectual and moral credibility of the impeachment of Bill Clinton by feting him at the White House. In a stroke, we lost the intellectual and moral high ground.

Sometime ago I suggested that John McCain should devote a large portion of his campaign funds to establishing a stable of writers, comedy writers, much like Jay Leno has on staff, to provide the jabs, one-liners and, most importantly, the soundbites which can dominate a news cycle. The McCain campaign surprised many of us with its "Obama the Messiah" commercials which were very effective. Their effectiveness demonstrates that no one wants to be seen as subscribing to foolishness. In Broward County, to support George Bush was to support a fool. In a world dominated by such transparent media bias, it is clear that conservatives can never hope to compete on an even footing unless they can dominate the news cycle as they dominate the issues. They have to be right on the issues, we have to be intellectually right on the issues. Well grounded, we can then satirize the enemy.

As we enter the wilderness and search for a way out, one thing we must never lose sight of is that we are right and they are wrong. Don't forget, Democrats feel superior to us because they think that we are racists and they are not. That ends the discussion for them and gets them out of any intellectual quicksand their leftist tendencies take them. We must hold our heads up, confident that we are right and they are wrong. Confident that our position makes intellectual sense as well as common sense. We must have the language to express it. We need a message. We need a messenger who can express it. We must do as bull Halsey signaled, " attack, repeat, attack."

[scooby321]

Mac and Sarah are hitting the right areas.

I know the Greater Tampa area I was born there.

I know its changed but they can't get a huge turn out there Florida is a cake walk. Cuban-Americans are solid GOP and Tampa is the 2nd largest Cuban-American population.

Polk City is old South. Should be heavy GOP.

[scooby321]

Can ( sorry its early) I hope Sarah can out draw the 0 at legends field.

I gave up ( i am serious after the owner and some players of the Rays went to 0's rally after beating Philly. They got what they deserved for going to the rally in losing to Philly.

[cll]

“and Puerto Rico lean toward Obama”.

First of all, it is a big mistake for this reporter to bundle Puerto Rico with foreign countries.

Second, Florida Puerto Ricans went for Bush in 2004. In 2008, the many thousands of islanders that will vote in this election in Florida, have fled Puerto Rico precisely because our current government follows Obama-like socialist policies. Most of the Puerto Ricans who have moved to Florida over the past four years are educated professionals and business people and Catholic.

And it is even a bigger mistake to believe that Florida Puerto Ricans compare to New York Puerto Ricans. Two different animals.

[LS]

I agree with much of your take, esp. the part about Bush not properly defending himself. Your suggestion for the comedy writers was dead-on.

But here's reality: this poll "was paid for by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Associates and showed that McCain is winning 69 percent of voters in Miami-Dade who were born in Cuba, compared to Bush's 78 percent in 2004. The poll does not include results from the GOP-heavy absentee ballots but shows that while McCain is leading overall among Hispanic voters 53 to 47 percent, in Miami-Dade, Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans favor McCain."

Right there, it says McCain wins the same vote Bush does after the absentees are counted.

Second, in a normal election---whatever can be defined as normal anymore---your thoughts about Broward Dems/Jews would be right. But I have anecdote after anecdote of people who have Jewish friends, relatives, people who live in retirement communities, assisted living, and the Jews there are terrified of Obama. One colleague has a mother in a home there, and he's a flaming lib, moaning that she is the ONLY ONE out of all Dems who is voting for Obama.

McCain will win FL by a wide, wide margin.

[lovesdogs]

Second, in a normal election---whatever can be defined as normal anymore---your thoughts about Broward Dems/Jews would be right. But I have anecdote after anecdote of people who have Jewish friends, relatives, people who live in retirement communities, assisted living, and the Jews there are terrified of Obama. One colleague has a mother in a home there, and he's a flaming lib, moaning that she is the ONLY ONE out of all Dems who is voting for Obama.

I am working with so many liberals in my victory office that their little side conversations give me a headache. Most days I work with my hand over one ear. With that said, may God bless them for their efforts on our behalf this time around. I seriously believe that Broward will be a 58/41/1 split to Obama which will be enough to let the saner counties turn Florida red.

[seekthetruth]

“Kerry beat Bush in Palm Beach and Broward however, by 400,000 votes, mostly Jewish votes.”

“Looks like McCain will pick up at least half of those.”

I hope so, and more! Are there any blogs out there that are known to be those that mainly discuss issues important to Jewish Americans? I have never understood why most Jewish Americans continually vote Democrat! If only the truth about Obama was reported I am sure we would have a landslide victory by McCain/Palin along with ALL of the Jewish American vote!

[nathanbedford]

If we claim Florida and even Ohio, where, oh where, do we make up Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia?

Pennsylvania? Unlikely by recent polling. Iowa? Something might be going on there (although real clear politics has it solidly blue and Pennsylvania light blue).

A look at the real clear politics electoral College page this morning shows: Obama/Biden act 311 of which 238 are solid and 73 leaning. McCain/palin at 127 solid plus five leaning for a total of 132. They have 95 electoral votes as tossups. Significantly, not one tossup is a blue state. All Blue States except for Pennsylvania are solid blue. Five formerly red states are now colored light blue.

I recite all of this not to reinforce pessimism, but to emphasize the overall message of my post which is that conservatism is going to have to find a whole new way of doing business if it is going to turn any of these Blue States red no matter what the outcome on Tuesday.

LS, I think we are fully in agreement- as soon as the calendar moves past Tuesday.

[johncocktoasten]

What is interesting to me is how the hype over Virginia has died down. I know that Obama has one event left there and McCain is doing two or three.

I don’t think McCain will lose VA or come close to losing it. A Virginia loss would be the death knell for McCain, and I just don’t see why if its at such great risk he isn’t there. Once again though, I don’t think he loses VA. Gerharty had a blog the other day showing that all the new voters are basically disbursed over the entire state including 40% in Bush Country. Even if every one of the newbies voted for zero, he wouldn’t be able to overtake Bush’s 2004 margin of victory. These polls showing Obama Up 6 to 10 points are pure poppey cock.

[LS]

We won't lose Co. Every analysis I've seen is that EVEN BEFORE you start to account for Dems voting for McCain (a lot this time around) and the "Bradley Effect" (huge), CO will be slightly red.

But, honestly, something else is afoot. Please check in later today. I'll post my final weekend analysis. Some streams are coming together and it really may not even be close.

[LS]

BTW, I love your idea about comics, and absolutely agree we need to a) deliver conservatism better, b) go on the attack all the time.

This election, and our candidate, are the direct results of not only Bush not fighting, but of the GOP laying down after 1995's defeat. To use a name that likely will make you recoil, given your screen name, Ulysses Grant in the face of a setback attacked again, and again. Even Carville said there are more of us than of them. Use what we have---the majority of GOOD AMERICANS.

[Islander7]

Todd Schnitt, conservative talker out of Tampa, has fielded dozens of calls from Cuban Americans in south Florida. They are warning that Obama’s promises and policies mirror those of Castro in the 50s and 60s and Chavez more recently.

They will NOT support the ‘One’.

[raybbr]

How is McCain wooing the hispanic vote? What can he offer them that the Constitution does not already?

[SoCalConservative]

He can CONTINUE to allow the Constitution offer them something they want. With “that One”, it may not be the same Constitution down the road!

[raybbr]

He can CONTINUE to allow the Constitution offer them something they want.

Huh? What does that even mean?

[SoFloFreeper]

...while Barack Obama is focused on getting Democrats to the polls.

LOL. Yeah, BO. You do that. Get those Democrats to the polls. I agree. Cause barely 70% of 'em, it seems, are voting for you.