We used to get a better class of trolls that were fairly clever but your post looks like it was prepared by:
Posted on 10/31/2008 7:22:56 AM PDT by Alvin Poon
Just because I’m bored, I have to ask: Did you bother checking the voter affiliation percentages of those polls from 2004 and comparing them with the current batch?
I doubt it. If you did, you’d realize that many of the pollsters are modeling their affiliation numbers in anticipation of Dem turnout overwhelming Republicans. So far in early voting, that assumption appears *wrong*.
Damn, I hate when you go and say something truthful like that!
We used to get a better class of trolls that were fairly clever but your post looks like it was prepared by:
The poster has a point regarding some pre election polls in the past, but I recall that republicans tend to do much better than most pre elect polls. The failure of the exit polls is icing on teh cake. That SHOULD be the most accurate because it is of the actual people who vote right after they vote. Yet everyone thought Kerry ws winning a landslide and he wasn’t.
PLUS in a close election no one really predicts or controls in advance who votes or how they vote in REALITY. It’s like the potential for any sports upset - you have to actually play the game.
I don’t recall your name from past discussions on this forum but I cannot help but note that the name has a certain tang to it. We seldom see such effrontery in a troll.
I don’t recall your name from past discussions on this forum but I cannot help but note that the name has a certain tang to it. We seldom see such effrontery in a troll.
Damn fellas....not trying to incite a riot here. I pray to God we are sitting here Tuesday evening with smiles on our faces and I will gladly drink a dose of “ I’m not worthy”...I am just feeling very sad for our country right now and wanting someone to show me there is some hope out of this madness.
In some of the polls (i.e. Gallup's "expanded LV"), the methodology is actually different from last time.
A large part of the problem is the poller's assumptions about turnout. They can't get a representative sample of Democrats and Republicans (Republicans are known to refuse a pollster or just not answer the phone), so they have to adjust their results.
This year, pollsters are biasing their results in favor of Democrats, because they think there will be a greater turnout of those voters. That may be true, but some of them are really going "over the top", and early voting results aren't much different than previous elections.
Incoming bogey!
You’re right. Newby vanities galore!
I’m not sure what election cycles you are looking at, but the pollsters got the last two wrong. Both Kerry and Gore were considered ahead by many pollsters before those elections.
The biggest problem with these polls is the huge self-selected “Chooses not to participate” group. Often this group outnumbers the participants by 1.5 or 2 to 1.
And there is NO WAY to tell the makeup of the group, or how it would affect the outcome if it were included.
There is some reason to believe that there are many McCain supporters in this group. They are people who clearly don’t want to waste time with a pollster, whereas the thinking is that an Obama supporter wants to tell EVERYONE.
At any rate, the polls, particularly this year, may be very unreliable indeed.
Nice catch TexGuy
Yeah, it’s over. We should all just stay home on Tuesday. Any Ubama lurkers here might want to just join us in tying one on next Monday and sleep it off on Tuesday. It’s a done deal for the One. ;-)
Hey troll, your other posts have a remarkable similarity, where you claim to support McCain, then wonder why he is doing things wrong.
Does DU have a school that teaches this kind of obvious trolling?
Note that real freepers never end their vanity post with challenges like:
“Please tell me why this time it’s different.”
Oh, and the really stupid screen name is another dead giveaway.
“Poll inaccuracy, fact or fiction?”
Hmmm...since there’s a range of 10% between polls, I’ll take
‘Fact’ for $200.
Interesting vanities...
Why doesn’t MaCain hammer Obama on Fannie and Freddie?
Palin’s Fate: Death By A Thousand Cuts?
Poll Inaccuracy: Fact or Fiction?
Smells like..... ozone....
Hope you enjoyed your stay.
read here:
http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20
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