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Poll Inaccuracy: Fact or Fiction?

Posted on 10/31/2008 7:22:56 AM PDT by Alvin Poon

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To: astyanax

I do spend time here everyday. And just because I can’t see where the polling accuracy has been wrong to the extent McCain needs it to be, then I guess I am an Obama shill. Right.

Some people here are just as bad as the liberals they claim to despise. I just don’t see where the polls are so inaccurate that it spells good news for the McCain ticket but hopefully I am wrong.

Just show mw where they have been wrong to such a large degree in the past 2 presidential elections and I will gladly eat crow.


61 posted on 10/31/2008 8:35:48 AM PDT by Alvin Poon
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To: Alvin Poon

In polling you get what you pay for. Candidates pay big money to get accurate information. And they NEVER share it.

The polls newspapers distribute for free are worth every cent you pay to see them.


62 posted on 10/31/2008 8:39:57 AM PDT by DManA
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To: Alvin Poon

How is it possible to “prove” a poll is right or wrong six months before the election?


63 posted on 10/31/2008 8:42:10 AM PDT by DManA
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To: Alvin Poon

I assume you’ve seen the post regarding the increasing number of polls in the last 10 years. That had lots of great information. If I can find it, I’ll send you the link.


64 posted on 10/31/2008 8:43:46 AM PDT by astyanax (If you need to wear a mask while speaking your mind, it is probably best you remain silent...)
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To: Alvin Poon

Wow, a troll and a vanity AND a way to make money by the MSM being wrong. It’s a 3fer.

Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2115426/posts


65 posted on 10/31/2008 8:48:17 AM PDT by Kevmo (I love that sound and please let that baby keep on crying. ~Sarah Palin)
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To: Alvin Poon
You're a TOOL
66 posted on 10/31/2008 9:01:07 AM PDT by TruthHound (You can keep the "change"!)
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To: Alvin Poon
Did you also look at the weighting of the polls in those years compared to this year???

Since 2008-05-08

67 posted on 10/31/2008 9:21:09 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: Alvin Poon

Sorry, couldn’t find the post I referenced earlier.
But these are interesting:

Campaign 2004 Predictions (Zogby trying to influence 2004 pres. election?)Thursday, October 23, 2008 3:32:07 PM · by Sun
On Nov. 2, 2004, just before Election Day in the presidential election, Zogby predicted that Kerry would get 311 electorial votes, and Bush would get only 213...

October 21st Poll ... This one will make you smile.
Thursday, October 23, 2008 7:53:09 AM · by 47samurai
But first, the findings: # The 10-point lead that Kerry held over President Bush in a March survey has grown to 13 percent. While Bush’s support among students has remained consistent, many undecided voters have moved into the Kerry camp. In swing states, Kerry’s lead is even higher, about 16 percent...

Mis-Polling, Part 2: State Polls in 2004
Tuesday, October 21, 2008 7:17:15 PM · by WatchYourself ·
The following is an analysis of the 17 state polls adminstered by Rasmussen during the final days of the 2004 election, consisting of mainly “contested” and toss-up states. Findings: 1)In 17 Polls, Bush Was Underestimated in all 17, Kerry was Overestimated in 4 and correctly predicted in 2. Note that these polls also included a percentage of “undecided” voters....

Search “polls.” All kinds of examples.


68 posted on 10/31/2008 9:30:11 AM PDT by astyanax (If you need to wear a mask while speaking your mind, it is probably best you remain silent...)
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