Posted on 10/28/2008 9:09:17 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
The early voting numbers in at least five states (OH, CA, CO, FL and TX) are not good for the Obamessiah. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. Life is good, and barring a major October surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
So, while we need to stay focused on electing McCain/Palin, it's also time to focus on some winnable House races. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House, compliments of a lousy 2006. In my view the GOP has just over 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below. Numbers in parentheses is Bush's percentage (rounded up or down) in that district during 2004. Click on the race to be taken the GOP challenger's website:
AL-05 (60%)
AZ-05 (54%)
AZ-08 (53%)
CA-11 (54%)
FL-16 (54%)
GA-08 (61%)
IL-14 (56%)
KS-02 (59%)
KY-03 (49%)
LA-06 (59%)
MS-01 (62%)
NH-01 (51%)
NH-02 (47%)
NY-20 (53%)
PA-07 (47%)
PA-08 (48%)
PA-10 (60%)
PA-11 (47%)
PA-12 (48%)
TX-22 (64%)
TX-23 (57%)
WI-08 (55%)
Other details on these races (voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And even if the GOP cannot retake the House, just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead will be very demoralizing after all their gloating.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
Ping for comments
Do you have prelim results from the early voting states or are they just exit polling results? Someone tried to claim Obama was up 20-25 in Florida thus far, and while I don’t doubt more Dems are voting, I sincerely doubt that margin.
I have given to
The GOP of PA
The GOP of VA
The National GOP
John McCain for President
527 Our Country Deserves Better
Joined the NRA
Russell and Barletta should pick up two seats in PA. Rooney picks up one in FL.
Kansas (03) incumbent Dennis Moore (dem) can be beat by Nick Jordan. Nick has run a great campaign. Dennis Moore was the only Kansas Congressperson who voted for the Bail out and the next day took $64,000 in contributions from the Financial services community. He is on the financial services comm with Barney.
Ping
I think Lynn Jenkins (R) can unseat Nancy Boyda (D) in Kansas. Redistricting hurt the Republicans, but Jenkins isn’t a conservative, so she should be able to pull it off.
Good job! I think the GOP may win the House back. No one is expecting this but I think it may happen.
They haven’t counted anything in FL yet. All we know is the party id of the ballots.
As of yesterday, Dems were ahead by 89,000 with 2,000,000 ballots.
Hardly any kind of blowout. Kerry did MUCH better in early voting.
I think we will actually narrow the Dem Majority. They have been overstepping big time.
US Dist 22, Pete Olson has a chance to unseat Rat Nick Lampson from Tom Delay’s old seat.
It’s up there, TX-22. And Pete has an excellent chance.
Nick Lampson (D-TX 22)is trailing GOP challenger Pete Olsen by 17, according to a Houston Chronicle poll released yesterday. (Tom Delay’s old district).
FReepmail.
Wow, first I’d heard of that poll. I’m not surprised Pete’s leading, but by 17?? Ouch!
I am with you on these seats. I am hoping that Lyle Larson, who was the popular mayor of San Antonio can take back the Bonilla seat from the Dems in TX-23.
I would bet that TX-22, the DeLay seat, goes back GOP.
The easiest pick of the lot is the old Foley seat in FL where Rooney is going to clobber Mahoney. That you can put into the definite category as it was served up on a gold platter to Rooney.
Those PA seats especially Murtha going down to defeat would be AWESOME. PA could be huge. While the Dems have a money majority, the Republican candidates have been out walking doors in their Congressional districts. Back to the old shoe pounding when you don’t have money to spare. I think more candidates running for Congress should be doing that instead of sending out flyers or buying TV ads. Go to the doors and ask for their vote.
Congresswoman Mary Fallin did that in Oklahoma in 2006 and won a tough primary against a lot of qualified Republicans and won the general going away. She walked every door in the Congressional District — most of it twice. My advice is hire Ed Goeas as your consultant if you are running for Congress — he got it right with Mary!
Illinois:
Bean will keep her seat for the Dems.
Kirk will keep his seat for the GOP.
Oberweis will win back Hastert’s seat to GOP.
Roskam will hold for GOP (I’m seeing to it personally - LOL).
Only one possible flip - Dem to GOP in the Oberweis/Foster race. I think it happens.
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