* McCain closes gap by 1.1% in the last 3 days * McCain now within 2.8% of Obama * Independent Voters Breaking for McCain
UGH — apologies for bad formating — will fix now!!
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They just said on FOX a few minutes ago, today it will show a 4 point lead for Obama.
Awesome! We are soooooo gonna win this!
JOHN & SARAH!!!!!
JOHN & SARAH!!!!!
JOHN & SARAH!!!!!
It is encouraging, however, I’m surprised at the number for 18 - 24 year olds that are going for McCain. Not that I don’t think they should prefer him but that is against everything else I’ve heard about that demographic.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY14.htm
..if he keeps those IBD poll numbers below 5 points, he wins IMO...
This is yesterday’s IBD/TIPP tracking poll and was dissected here, well, yesterday.
http://web.archive.org/web/20041028075222/http://www.tipponline.com/
Release Date | Bush | Kerry | Undecided | Spread |
October 27
|
47%
|
43%
|
11%
|
+4 Bush
|
October 26
|
47%
|
42%
|
10%
|
+5 Bush
|
October 25
|
48%
|
41%
|
11%
|
+7 Bush
|
October 24
|
47%
|
43%
|
11%
|
+4 Bush
|
October 23
|
47%
|
44%
|
10%
|
+3 Bush
|
October 22
|
45%
|
45%
|
11%
|
Tie
|
October 21
|
45%
|
44%
|
11%
|
+1 Bush
|
October 20
|
45%
|
45%
|
11%
|
Tie
|
October 19
|
45%
|
45%
|
10%
|
Tie
|
October 18
|
47%
|
44%
|
9%
|
+3 Bush
|
October 17
|
47%
|
43%
|
10%
|
+4 Bush
|
October 16
|
47%
|
44%
|
10%
|
+3 Bush
|
October 15
|
47%
|
43%
|
11%
|
+4 Bush
|
October 14
|
46%
|
42%
|
12%
|
+4 Bush
|
October 13
|
46%
|
43%
|
11%
|
+3 Bush
|
October 12
|
45%
|
44%
|
11%
|
+1 Bush
|
September 28
|
45%
|
46%
|
9%
|
+1 Kerry
|
September 20 |
46%
|
43%
|
11%
|
+3 Bush
|
September 13 |
47%
|
47%
|
6%
|
Tie
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I said this in another TIPP poll thread and I’ll say it again. You can almost forget the top line in this poll, except for this: if Obama doesn’t get to 48 in this poll, he’s toast regardless of what McCain’s total is.
McCain wins if he’s within 4
Surely they will come to their senses by Nov 4.
This is the posting of this poll today with yesterday’s results. I got excited for nothing. Posters need to do a search before posting old news.
Actually, that is yesterday’s news and it has been posted several times.
As Rove pointed out, there were 77 polls in 2004, and this year, there is 150+ ....they are push polling to effect the outcome, not to determine it.
The IBD/TIPP results are released each day about 1:00 Eastern. It is usually posted within 5-10 minutes, usually by multiple people.
I think we need a Polls sidebar during the last month or so before an election. Putting a popular poll in any other sidebar (including breaking news) quickly falls off the list -- and unless you know exactly what to search for, we get lots of duplicates.
The internals of this poll are different than others. The youth vote is for McCain by a wide margin.
Two thoughts:
First, Obama could easily win the popular vote and still lose the election. This is because Obama has huge leads in six very large states: California, New York, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts.
OTOH, McCain has smaller leads in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina.
Second, a certain percentage of people lie to pollsters. Now i don’t imagine very many liberals would lie about wanting to vote for Obama, but i think there are a number of conservatives and even PUMA’s that when polled claim they’re voting for Obama when in fact they’re voting for McCain.
If 2% are lying, and really voting for McCain, that is a 4 point swing. (+2 for McCain, -2 for Obama.) And that my FRiends is why this is very winnable for McCain.