It is encouraging, however, I’m surprised at the number for 18 - 24 year olds that are going for McCain. Not that I don’t think they should prefer him but that is against everything else I’ve heard about that demographic.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY14.htm
Homeschoolers often have large families. ;-D (and are generally conservative)
I mentioned it before- In 1972, Nixon beat McGovern among under-30 year old voters.
Similarly, despite J.F. Kennedy’s appeal to women, Nixon won the vote among women in 1960, I believe.
The vast majority of college students are apolitical and think that activists are stupid in the first place. Rub it in their noses too much, too hard, too fast, and they might decide that they don’t want to put up with that for 4 years.
You should see how this poll looked the other day. McCain was capturing 74% of 18 to 24 year olds, and Obama got only 22% of that cohort. It makes me think there is something wrong with this poll, at least in counting the youth vote.
They explain it as being erratic due to a small sample size for that narrow age group.
I can’t remember where I heard it, but it was a local radio show the other day, that also mentioned McCain was doing quite well with the 18-24 demographic. I found that surprising (in a good way) as well.
“It is encouraging, however, I’m surprised at the number for 18 - 24 year olds that are going for McCain. Not that I don’t think they should prefer him but that is against everything else I’ve heard about that demographic.”
I can remember when the lowered the voting age to 18 nationally. The prediction was that the youth vote would break hard for the Democrats and give them a huge advantage. It didn’t. What they found out after the election that most people in the 18-21 range voted along the same lines as their parents.
As far as I can tell, this has been true ever since (despite what the pre-election polls said.) Young people tend to vote the same way their parents do.
Young people want to seem hip/cool/part-of-the-crowd so in public and to pollsters they say they are going to vote Democratic. When they get in the privacy of the voting booth they hold the opinions of their parents in higher regard than their friends, and vote like their parents do.
It doesn’t have a name, but I suspect it is the same phenomenon we are seeing today with Obama and the general public.
This am Bill Sammon said that in 2004 the prediction was for the youth vote of dems to surge because of Rock the Vote. But instead the conservative religious youth vote rose due to grass roots religious rock rallies.
Also IBD polls cell phone users which most of the polls do not sample.
Consider the sources of what you've been hearing...
I think the 18- 24 year olds realize that the American Dream is about to vanish in to a socialist funk. Why spend $100,000 on a college education to live in a land of wealth redistribution and socialist lack of opportunity. Kids aren't as dumb as we think sometimes.
I early voted this a.m. near my work. The place was full of white retirement age voters. Dozens if not a hundred or more. What about that demo, anyone know?