Encouraging poll results from IBD/TIPP -- the firm that was most accurate in 2004 Election...

IBD / TIPP ^ | 10/27/2008 | IBD / TIPP

[NYC_BULLMOOSE]

John McCain vs. Barack Obama Release Date McCain Obama Undecided Spread October 27 44.2% 47.0% 8.8% +2.8 Obama October 26 43.3% 46.5% 10.1% +3.2 Obama October 25 41.9% 45.8% 12.2% +3.9 Obama October 24 42.3% 45.8% 11.9% +3.5 Obama October 23 43.7% 44.8% 11.6% +1.1 Obama October 22 42.0% 45.7% 12.3% +3.7 Obama October 21 40.9% 46.9% 12.1% +6.0 Obama October 20 41.4% 46.7% 11.9% +5.3 Obama October 19 41.5% 46.6% 11.9% +5.1 Obama October 18 39.8% 47.2% 13.0% +7.3 Obama October 17 40.6% 45.9% 13.5% +5.3 Obama October 16 41.6% 45.2% 13.2% +3.6 Obama October 15 41.9% 45.2% 12.9% +3.3 Obama October 14 41.9% 44.8% 13.3% +3.0 Obama October 13 42.7% 44.8% 12.5% +2.1 Obama

[moose2004]

Well said. It’s funny how they think they’re so clever, I love it when they say something is “very bad news,” or “this is really depressing.”

[zaker99]

I don’t think 1 point is a big deal. This poll has shifted more than 1 point regularly. Let’s see if there is a trend in the next few days.

[mnehring]

One thing we also need to account is that, in 2004, there was only one real active 3rd party option- Nader, which hurt Kerry. Nader, while active this year, isn't filling a leftward gap for Obama like he was for Kerry. Our side, however, has both Baldwin and Barr trying to fill a gap to the right. While I don't expect either to do more than a percent or two, in key States, 1% or 2% off McCain could make a difference in those States.

[WalterSkinner]

..you are right, but there are things below the radar that Obama cannot control, i.e. the PUMA and Bradley effects.

This is going to be very interesting down to the wire...

[zaker99]

I don’t think 1 point is a big deal. This poll has shifted more than 1 point regularly. Let’s see if there is a trend in the next few days. The lead today could be anywhere from 3.5 to 4.4. Relax people!

[Proudcongal]

This is the posting of this poll today with yesterday’s results. I got excited for nothing. Posters need to do a search before posting old news.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Actually, that is yesterday’s news and it has been posted several times.

[snarkytart]

I don’t think 1 point is a big deal. This poll has shifted more than 1 point regularly. Let’s see if there is a trend in the next few days.

Exactly! Thank you for common sense.

[Proudcongal]

This is the posting of this poll today with yesterday’s results. I got excited for nothing. Posters need to do a search before posting old news.

Meant to say: This is the second posting of this poll today with yesterday’s results.

[rwfromkansas]

Definitely. The early voting from Texas indicating more GOP districts energized is good news at least. We can still win.

[MaestroLC]

The new TIPP poll today widened Obama’s lead to 4. The tightening stopped.

Nope. That poll is a rolling average of 5 days, when the markets dropped and people got worried and reconsidered Obama. Call it a hiccup. It does not show current trends. You will see them over the weekend, when people are making their final judgments (probably Thurs and Fri) on McCain and Obama.

[Heff]

Folks...please explain to me how these numbers are relevant when the samples are completely unknown. It states 72% of people with no religious affiliation are voting for BHO, but the only sampled 25 people out of 1000, its meaningless...of they sampled 700 RATS to 300 Republicans, then the outcome is meaningless.

As Rove pointed out, there were 77 polls in 2004, and this year, there is 150+ ....they are push polling to effect the outcome, not to determine it.

[Right Wing Assault]

I’m surprised at the number for 18 - 24 year olds that are going for McCain.

They explain it as being erratic due to a small sample size for that narrow age group.

[NRG1973]

It looks like the undecideds are starting to make up their mind.

[sola_fide]

I can’t remember where I heard it, but it was a local radio show the other day, that also mentioned McCain was doing quite well with the 18-24 demographic. I found that surprising (in a good way) as well.

[Le Chien Rouge]

I think the 18-24 year olds are going much more for Sarah Palin then Mccain......Palin is a HUGE factor in this race

[sola_fide]

I was just thinking I'd feel a lot better if I saw at least one poll that had McCain leading.

[Right Wing Assault]

Well, something caused a jump for O in the poll.

These variations are within the margin of error. Since the total sample size is probably less than 1000 people, just randomly grabbing people will give a potential variation of several percent any given day. Some days you get a few more McCain voters than you should, other days you get a few less.

Nothing to fret about. It doesn't mean obama is gaining. But if the lead stays about even, that isn't great. Then we need to see if these folks are oversampling dems, too.

[GodGunsGuts]

Did you have to input each entry one at a time, or is there some special function that got all the poll results to snap into those beautiful columns?!?!

[mnehring]

In Firefox, you can select a block of text or tables, etc, right click, and select ‘view selection source’. You get the HTML for the selection highlighted. You can paste that in and most often, you only need to do a few small tweaks.