Posted on 10/28/2008 6:51:08 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3
Is North Carolina reverting back to form?
After a month of leading most N.C. polls, Barack Obama finds himself in a dead heat today with John McCain.
Raleigh's Public Policy Polling has Obama leading McCain, 49-48, in a survey released Monday. Obama led by seven in PPP's poll one week ago.
Rasmussen, in a poll released Monday evening, has McCain on top by the same 49-48 margin. McCain led by two in a Rasmussen poll Friday.
N.C. hasn't awarded its 15 electoral votes to a Democrat since 1976.
PPP's Tom Jensen says McCain gained significantly among Democrats and whites in the past week.
If that trend continues, Jensen says, McCain will win N.C.
But, says Jensen: “Obama has the upper hand for a 1- to 2-point victory based on so many of his supporters already having turned out to cast a ballot for him.”
His prediction – for now: Obama by 50,000 votes or less.
The game plan
The topic of the day Monday – and likely today: taxes. McCain is finding some polling traction in painting Obama as a tax-raising liberal and will hammer that message hard in Pennsylvania and in Fayetteville.
Obama opted for the big picture speech Monday in Ohio, talking about economic hope and the future.
Look for him to go at the tax message more directly in Pennsylvania and Virginia today.
Poll of the day
State
North Carolina
Pollster
Public Policy Polling
Numbers
U.S. Senate: Kay Hagan (D) 48, Elizabeth Dole (R) 45, Christopher Cole (L) 4.
Details
1,038 likely voters; margin of error +/- 2.8 percentage points
What it means
Hagan wins her seventh consecutive weekly PPP poll, but her lead drops from seven points to three.
New N.C. governor poll numbers will be released today.
McCain gained significantly among Democrats and whites in the past week.
GO VOTE PEOPLE!
As a reference, NC voted for Bush over Kerry by 12 points. McCain/Palin are not going to lose NC. But they will still be focusing on NC, because they need to save Liddy Dole’s Senate seat.
Voted yesterday in Tampa. Mac winning her.
With Stevens as dead meat, we need to save every senate seat we can. Send money to Elizabeth Dole’s campaign and other endangered senators. I have!
I guess when NC votes for Obama and a socialist senate person on November 4th, Dixie can officially kick NC out of the south, as it joins the eastern seaboard group of Maryland and NY type states.
..he has no lead in NC—this is bogus...
The people are making their final choices, and it is for McCain (or rather, NOT for Obama!). I think polls will be shifting this weekend. Obama should be extremely worried.
But how about a compromise? McCain/Palin win 'em both!! :-)
Polls are CRAP, he’s NEVER had a lead here in NC.
“I guess when NC votes for Obama and a socialist senate person on November 4th, Dixie can officially kick NC out of the south, as it joins the eastern seaboard group of Maryland and NY type states.”
Like I said, Obama has never lead here in NC. No need to be so insulting.
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LOL, ALL the polls are tightening so the pollsters can claim they were within the margin of error when McCain wins. The HUGH leads for Obama were just an feeble attempt for liberal pollsters to attempt to deflate the McCain candidacy, it backfired.
Looks like the pollsters got spooked with their NC models and have corrected. Early and youth voting wasn’t going quite as lopsided as they had assumed so far.
Now they see the have to recover their NC predictions which were panning out far differently in actual votes and turnout than they were initially guessing.
Well it's get to 270 baby, however we do it! BO is in Pa now and why would he be here with a 10 point lead as the Philly and University polls say he is. Cause he ain't. He's running slightly ahead in Metro Philly, tied in the NE and down around the rest of the state including NW and SW PA. I heard a pundit on TV that if McCain shows on election day 3 points or less down, he wins. I don't beleive that but it does buttress the argument that us right wing conspiracy theorists have postulated that McCain is not really down and it's all crappola.
Raz has it five point lead today for O. I take this as a three point lead for Mac. Vote, people!
Queue up the Jaws music because the McCain/Palin GREAT WHITE is coming! You know it’s out there! You know it’s watching! You know any moment your house of Empty Suit is going to be ripped to shreds!
Christopher Cole, Xtra Big Government's wing man.
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