Posted on 10/26/2008 9:19:37 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
I have been noting that national polls and some state polls may be way off based on optimistic voter turnout models which are historically nonsense (see posts here and here). One of the first indicators of whether Obama really is enjoying some massive lead is the early voting opportunities, which have not shown what Obama and the media have been saying is a huge democrat wave, like 2006.
First there was early voting and registration in Ohio, where Obama’s campaign promised to make huge gains - only to fall 80% short of their mark. All the hype in Ohio was pure fantasy when it came to Obama getting out the vote with this massive wave, which turned out to be barely a ripple.
Second, Gallup came out with poll numbers showing the amount of early voters between Obama and McCain show no huge wave for Obama, but actually a dead even race. Even though Gallup’s own national poll models showed a huge lead for Obama, it was not showing up in the early voting.
(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...
“Sorry. I can’t bite on unidenfied persons, with unidentified friends, participating in undefined polling by an unidentified polling firm...”
Why the MSN does :)
or
MSN Main stream Nuts
I don't believe much of what they "report" either, LOL.
The only thing early voting proves is that one party or the other got its voters in first. As long as all of the voters cast ballots, it does not matter.
I’m there...thanks!
I agree.
It does have some psychological effect while watching election returns.... often resulting in severe disappointment by the time all the votes are counted. I remember several election-day live threads where what looked like a clear win turned into a loss. The GOP has always encouraged absentee voting. I’d prefer that everyone except the elderly and handicapped have to show up at their polling place on election day—and show I.D.
Looks like a Porn site....
Everybody wake up and remember the 2000 Gallup daily tracking poll. Gore was consistently behind Bush for weeks, leading up to Election Day. Then Bush coasted and Gore played to win. The result was...well....we all know!!
We have lost our backbones this cycle. “Don’t wobble”. Close strong.
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/09/12/tracking.poll/index.html
10/20: BUSH 50 GORE 40
10/21: BUSH 51 GORE 40
10/22: BUSH 50 GORE 41
10/23: BUSH 46 GORE 44
10/24: BUSH 45 GORE 46
10/25: BUSH 48 GORE 43
10/26: BUSH 49 GORE 42
10/27: BUSH 52 GORE 39
10/28: BUSH 49 GORE 42
10/29: BUSH 49 GORE 42
10/30: BUSH 47 GORE 44
10/31: BUSH 47 GORE 44
11/1: BUSH 48 GORE 43
11/2: BUSH 47 GORE 43
11/3: BUSH 48 GORE 42
11/4: BUSH 47 GORE 43
11/5: BUSH 48 GORE 43
“We have lost our backbones this cycle.”
What are you talking about?
BTW, Welcome to FR, I think.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
September 9-11
Likely Voters’
Choice for President
Gore 48%
Bush 42
Nader 4
Buchanan 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
COMPLETE TRACKING TREND ON HORSE RACE:
Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept.
4-6 5-7 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11
Gore 47% 46% 45% 47% 49% 48%
Bush 44% 43% 46% 44 42 42
Nader 3 3 2 2 3 4
Buchanan * 1 1 1 1 1
Six Reasons McCain will win the Election [Critique of polling]
I live in Long Beach, and I can tell you for certain that there are nowhere near the number of Obama signs and bumper stickers compared to Kerry in 2004.
I agree that early voting is a bad thing. As the cheating and fraud have become more rampant, I think Democrats are just being tipped off as to how votes they need to create or steal.
Regarding this year’s turnout, I think Blacks, in particular, are highly energized to go vote for Hussein and are voting early in very high numbers. Their numbers in Shelby County (TN) have been huge thus far.
Maybe they think they have already won ....the Newspapers and MSM certainly are claiming that Obama will win.
How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics?
The constitution already says the election will be on the first tuesday of november. Early voting is unconstitutional.
I live in Florida, and it has been dead even. However, factoring in requested absentee ballots that have not been returned yet, McCain would be ahead by about 35,000. The USA Today article posted above reflected Kerry was ahead in early voting by a 56-39% margin.
That article is a good reminder about how the media uses the same BS every election, i.e. “the youth vote seems really motivated this time” and how “the vast majority of early voters are Democrats.” When McCain wins next Tuesday, we need to archive the crap so when people start panicking in 2010 we can refresh some memories!
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