Mason-Dixon/NBC: GA, IA, MO - (Mac leads 46%-45% in MO, 49%-43% in GA and trails 40%-51% in IA)

Pollster.com ^

[No Dems 2004]

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research / NBC News 10/22-23/08; Likely voters, MoE +/- 4% Mode: Live Telephone Interviews (As broadcast on Meet the Press)

Iowa Obama 51, McCain 40

Georgia McCain 49, Obama 43

Missouri McCain 46, Obama 45

[PaRep]

I KNOW!!!!!!!! that is what I was saying, He said he didn’t win Iowa

[ConservativeMan55]

Yep!

I was just giving you the article to show to him.

[Cedric]

I haven’t quite figured you out, yet.

[PaRep]

Oh O.K. then!!

[JJHLH1]

Missouri is THE bellweather state. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1904 except one - in 1956 inexplicably when the rest of the country was going for Eisenhower and MO went for Stevenson.

McCain/Palin will win MO.

[Boiling Pots]

Missouri is the bellwether of bellwethers.

The eventual winner will be bucking history big-time if they lose Missouri.

[MDformerDem]

Dukakis won in Iowa. ‘Nuff said.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Yeah, except both campaigns have been spending a lot of time there. That would indicate that an 11 point spread isn’t realistic.

[olrtex]

More and more it looks like Colorado and Nevada decide this election. Of the states that went for Bush in 2004, it looks like Iowa and New Mexico will go for Obama. That means all other states must stay in the Republican column. Of course, this emphasis on Colorado and Nevada assumes North Carolina and Virginia are less in play than some polls indicate (it is just really hard to see those states going Democratic—and if they do, it is impossible to see how the Republicans win).

Maybe Pennsylvania really is in play, as the McCain forces seem to think. I sure hope so, and a win there would give some breathing room elsewhere. But for my money, the race turns on Colorado and Nevada. If you live in those states, please vote and please urge your Republican friends and family to vote.

[MittFan08]

“Of course they vote democrat. Bush always lost Iowa. No biggie.”

Except for the fact that without Iowa and New Mexico, we either have to flip a Kerry state or we can’t afford to lose even one out of the 6-7 battleground state- MO, FL, OH, VA, NC etc. It’s doable but we need to campaign hard in states like Colorado and Virginia and realistically evaluate whether we can flip a Kerry state like Pennsylvania. McCain seems to think we can- hope he’s right.

[Thickman]

I thin M-D is among the most credible polls this year except it too will miss the “Bradley Effect” which is about 5%. Therefore, McPalin is comfortably ahead in MO and GA and not quite within striking distance in IOwelfareWA.

I suspect Mac is okay in most of Bush’s ‘04 red states with the exception of NM, CO and NV. He need CO to win because NM does not look good. If he take NV but not CO or NM, he needs NH as well.

If he can shake the world and take PA, it’s over.

[PaRep]

HUH ????????????????????????????//

[OhioisRed76]

To everyone concerned about the national polls. Look at the bellweather states such as OH and MO. We have had polls this week having Mccain leading in both. No way is Obama up by more than 4 but still loosing MO and OH. these states almost never deviate from the national popular vote Bush got 50.73 of the national popular vote in 04 he got 50.81% of the vote in Ohio THIS RACE IS A DEAD HEAT! BUCK UP AS RUSH WOULD TELL US!!!!

[MittFan08]

“More and more it looks like Colorado and Nevada decide this election.”

I think you may be right. Election night will be a long haul (I hope anyway). First we’ve got to hold off Obama in FL, OH, NC, VA, MO, and IN. I think we can (Virginia being the hardest) but there’s no margin for error.

If we manage to do that, then unless we unexpectedly flip a Kerry state like PA or WI or pull out an upset in Iowa, we have to wait for Colorado and Nevada. If we lose both of those, along with Iowa, we still lose overall.

The good news is that you can’t point to a single state that McCain needs to win and say “it’s just not doable.” The bad news is that he needs to run the table. If we neglect a single state and don’t allocate ground game or advertising resources, it can come back to bite us. Pretty much all of the eastern states in play have significant black populations and you can bet they will be turning out to vote, along with their imaginary friends registered by ACORN.

[JLS]

Bush won IA in 2004 and barely lost it in 2000. Some argued that the GOP should go after WI, IA and I think OR while Gore was trying to steal FL. All three of those states were close losses.

[ChicagoConservative27]

How do the House and Senate races been looking so far?

[calex59]

They can drink their ethanol for all I care.

I'll drink to that!

[Beagle8U]

The fact that the most radical liberal Ann Arbor News refused to endorse Hussein Obama should tell everyone that the polls are skewed.

When the barking moonbats in the Michigan moonbat capital are afraid of him you know he is toast with normal people.

[iceshaving]

Missouri looks about right. I think his lead might be a little larger in Georgia.

[Perdogg]

Bush won Iowa in 2004.