More and more it looks like Colorado and Nevada decide this election. Of the states that went for Bush in 2004, it looks like Iowa and New Mexico will go for Obama. That means all other states must stay in the Republican column. Of course, this emphasis on Colorado and Nevada assumes North Carolina and Virginia are less in play than some polls indicate (it is just really hard to see those states going Democratic—and if they do, it is impossible to see how the Republicans win).
Maybe Pennsylvania really is in play, as the McCain forces seem to think. I sure hope so, and a win there would give some breathing room elsewhere. But for my money, the race turns on Colorado and Nevada. If you live in those states, please vote and please urge your Republican friends and family to vote.
“More and more it looks like Colorado and Nevada decide this election.”
I think you may be right. Election night will be a long haul (I hope anyway). First we’ve got to hold off Obama in FL, OH, NC, VA, MO, and IN. I think we can (Virginia being the hardest) but there’s no margin for error.
If we manage to do that, then unless we unexpectedly flip a Kerry state like PA or WI or pull out an upset in Iowa, we have to wait for Colorado and Nevada. If we lose both of those, along with Iowa, we still lose overall.
The good news is that you can’t point to a single state that McCain needs to win and say “it’s just not doable.” The bad news is that he needs to run the table. If we neglect a single state and don’t allocate ground game or advertising resources, it can come back to bite us. Pretty much all of the eastern states in play have significant black populations and you can bet they will be turning out to vote, along with their imaginary friends registered by ACORN.