New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: Democrat 40.0% Republican 32.8%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | October 25, 2008

[notes2005]

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process (see methodology).

During the final two months of the election season, we are updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.

The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.

This week’s adjustment once again shows a trend moving slowly in the Democratic direction. There is a three-tenths-of-a-percentage-point increase in the number of Democrats and a two-tenths-of-a-point decline in the number of Republicans.

[Maverick68]

Notice something missing in this picture? Young black men. Let me assure you something: The majority of eligible young black men will NOT show up to vote for Obama. They will be the ones who will lay back and say Obama has it in the bag...

[teacherbarbie]

McCain has a couple of scenarios.
The undecideds never break for Obama.
Independents are usually split between leaners to the right and leaners to the left(there might be more leaners to the left this year)
The PUMA’s won't vote for Obama.
Obama is 10 points off his base.
It doesn't look like they registered more people.

[Warlord]

I'm as annoyed as you with Fox, but how do bondholders control Rupert? Bondholders have no control prerogatives unless the company is nearing insolvency.

[Irene Adler]

BTW, Mr. Adler and I went to a shopping mall nar our home late this morning to vote early, and the line was so long and slow-moving that we left. We had stuff we needed to get done and could not spare the time this morning so will vote on the regular election day. Everybody seemed real serious about voting; it was a very quiet and patient crowd. This is in Cedar Falls, Iowa, home of the smallest of the three state universities in Iowa.

I am the one who reported very few campaign signs on lawns or cars this time around; still very true here. Still puzzled by the lack of obvious enthusiasm, contrasted with the serious an strong desire to vote, a bit of a paradox. Hoping against hope for a pleasant surprise from my fellow Iowans despite all the polls.

[uncbob]

I expect turnout this year to be within a point either way. And that scares Obama and the media to death.

Especially since there is a significant number of dems who want no parts of Obama

[uncbob]

Well them Mr RAS you ought to put out TWO results

The second one with a projection of an equal turnout

[uncbob]

Generally Independent voters are “bandwagon” voters and unfortunately the Dems have the advantage this year.

IF they show up to vote

[SoCalConservative]

GREAT POST, cosmic_me! Well put, my sentiments exactly. I just wish I were as well spoken.

[greyfoxx39]

What worries me is just what do ACORN and the Obama militants have planned for us on election day?

I can see them lining up, shoulder to shoulder around polling places to keep us from voting, provoking incidents that require police intervention and then hollering RACIST...these people are frightening a lot of people. I wouldn't be surprised if that is a major factor in Republican turnout for early voting, and if there are several really bad incidents in the eastern time zone, perhaps Republican voters, particluarly the elderly, will be afraid to go out in other zones.

Barack Hussein Obama's Youth ObamaJugend 2/2

[pwatson]

Cosmic-me what an excellent post. Here in Plano Texas my daughter and I early voted. Its not over until its over. Never give an inch Americans have won far worse battles than this one.

[impeachedrapist]

I agree with you. I did not see/hear Rasmussen do that, although a couple of people have mentioned it on FR.

[theophilusscribe]

Here are the 2008 primary results: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

[crosslink]

37D, 37R, and 26I was indeed the 2004 distribution. Here is a chart that contains this information for every election since 1972.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html
Note that two years ago, in what was a very bad year for the GOP, the breakdown was 37D, 34R, and 29I. Note that the Democrats have never done better than 39% since 1986, have never had more than a 3 point advantage in any election since 2000 (and that happened only once, in 2006), haven’t done better than 38% since 2000, and have had 4 point advantages in only two election cycles (Presidential and mid-year) since 1988

[SaintDismas]

http://www.zombietime.com/lefts_big_blunder/

[CSI007]

This is sick. There is probably no way that McCain will even come close on this poll with that kind of weighting. Don’t look for any closing towards election day if he keeps adding weight the democrat side.

[Frantzie]

I know a Dem lady who was going to write Hillary’s name in but I convinced her that McCain beating Obama is a better solution.

[Sisku Hanne]

In all honesty, you can tell her it is a better strategy, because if Obama gets in this time Hillary will never be able to take another shot at it....he will make darn sure of that!

[1035rep]

Yep!

[Frantzie]

Thanks. Yeah that was one of the arguements I used. She hates Obama. She then fell off the bandwagon for Hillary when she saw her campaigning for him.

[kesg]

Dynamic weighting by party will be a most welcome casualty of this election cycle.