Posted on 10/25/2008 1:45:54 PM PDT by notes2005
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process (see methodology).
During the final two months of the election season, we are updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.
The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.
This week’s adjustment once again shows a trend moving slowly in the Democratic direction. There is a three-tenths-of-a-percentage-point increase in the number of Democrats and a two-tenths-of-a-point decline in the number of Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Dem:39
Rep:35
IND:25
And what would the final numbers be?
Do you really think O’Bama will get 11% of the GOP votes? I just find that hard to believe.
I know the objective is to suppress the Republican vote, but don’t they risk the possibility when they put Obama up by 7-14 percent (depending on the poll) that the Dems will get too comfortable and if on election day, the line is too long, or they have another committment will think...I don’t need to vote, Obama has it in the bag. Seems to me that inflating the numbers can cause complacency.
The highest I’ve seen in other polls is 7% - 8 % of Repubs going for Bambi (Colin Powell, Bill Weld, Peggy Noonan, Kathleen Parker, et.al), but not 11%
Just to humor Ras, what would McCain need if it was the following:
Dem: 40
GOP: 32
IND: 28
(Assuming 130 Million Voters and no third party)
Dem
Obama get 82% of the 40% Dem Vote or 42,640,000 votes
McCain gets 18% of the 40% Dem Vote or 9,360,000 votes
GOP
Obama get 7% of the 32% GOP Vote or 2,912,000 votes
McCain gets 93% of the 32% GOP Vote or 38,688,000 votes
IND
Obama gets 55% of the 28% of the Vote or 20,200,000 votes
McCain gets 45% of the 28% of the Vote or 16,380,000 votes
Total Obama: 65,752,000 votes
Total McCain: 64,428,000 votes
If the model RAS is using were true, it would still be close because McCain could pick off the PUMA’s and hold more of the GOP base. In fact, before factoring in Independents, McCain should have more votes. All McCain needs to do then would be to run even with independents or within a point 51-49.
in the primaries?
Arizona, Arkansas, California, Floria, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and W. Virginia
with all the early voting democrats, it should be going the OTHER direction with the unvoted.
what happens when most black people have early voted? certainly feels that way. (just look at the pictures of the lines.)
11% is to account for the liberal-elitist Rockefeller Republicans (like Powell, Hagel, etc) who jump ship for the Messiah. Sadly, they are in numbers too large for my comfort.
Fox News - we report (for Barry now....because Murdoch’s)... Saudi & UAE bondholders...decide. They also tell Rupert what to do now.
Also his second young Chi-Com wife says “you tell them vote Obama or Sky News lose TV rights to China - okey dokey?”
Murdoch’s Chi Com second wife has driven his kids away from him.
Murdoch is doing tha same crap since he has onwed the Wall Street Journal for the past 6 months. The Barron/Dow Jones/Bancroft decendants still hold stock and wanted minimal changes to the editorials but even the ed page is pro-Barry now. Peggy Noonan is shilling for Obama again today in the WSJ editorial page.
TIPP/IDB especially IBD cannot be bought off. IBD published William O’Neil is the salt of the earth and does not need Barry’s (Saudi) ad money.
they will show up on election day to vote again. and again. and again.
Well it hasn’t been more than Dem +4 for 40 years.
“in the primaries?”
“Arizona, Arkansas, California, Floria, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and W. Virginia”
Thanks. Hillary won all of those primaries? Wow.
I need to look at the margins of victory. I know Obama only got 30 to 32% in FL. He also got slammed in PA too.
So I would think McCain has a very good chance that this will help him in FL, PA, NM (a little?), IN, NH, OH, NV.
Richardson was helping Hill in NM but then stuck a knife in her back. Richardson may not be able to close the deal for Barry in NM.
AZ, AR, SD, TN, TX, WV, KY, OK should be McCain locks.
Obama locks are MA, NY,CA, MI and NJ.
I think McCain could on a very longshot get NJ and maybe CA. MI is another longshot for McCain.
I also think McCain can flip Iowa.
He stated as much on Hannity’s radio show a few weeks ago, claiming the race was steady. At that time, I’m pretty sure Obama was up around 8 points in his poll. It seems that he’s going to make his polls reflect his thoughts that Obama will win this race pretty handily. Let’s just hope he’s wrong.
Hillary had 18 million voters. Maybe 3-5 million may come to McCain for strategy’s sake. But a significant portion of the rest will not vote for Obama, will write Hillary in, or will leave the vote blank in protest.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Okay, this might show why some polls have Obama with a double digit, but it is highly unlikely:
Assuming 130,000,000 DEM 40 REP 32 IND 28
Obama Would Need 71,500,000 votes
McCain Would Get Only: 58,500,000 votes
Carrying 90% of DEMS would give Barry 46,800,000
Carrying 11% of REP would give Barry 4,576,000 votes
Of the 28% IND Votes, Obama, would need to get 55% of them or 20,200,000 votes to get 55% of the total vote.
So the only way for Barry to win by double digits is to carry 90% of Democrats. It this going to happen? The estimated averages of the PUMA’s are around 15% according to Zogby. But that only reduces the total vote number by about 2 million, so McCain has to hold a larger portion of the GOP voters (around 92-93%) and get the independents even (50-50 or 51-49) and then McCain can win, even using this model of the Democratic oversampling.
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