[parksstp]

Okay, this might show why some polls have Obama with a double digit, but it is highly unlikely:

Assuming 130,000,000 DEM 40 REP 32 IND 28

Obama Would Need 71,500,000 votes
McCain Would Get Only: 58,500,000 votes

Carrying 90% of DEMS would give Barry 46,800,000
Carrying 11% of REP would give Barry 4,576,000 votes

Of the 28% IND Votes, Obama, would need to get 55% of them or 20,200,000 votes to get 55% of the total vote.

So the only way for Barry to win by double digits is to carry 90% of Democrats. It this going to happen? The estimated averages of the PUMA’s are around 15% according to Zogby. But that only reduces the total vote number by about 2 million, so McCain has to hold a larger portion of the GOP voters (around 92-93%) and get the independents even (50-50 or 51-49) and then McCain can win, even using this model of the Democratic oversampling.

[goldstategop]

Its not going to happen. Even in the Dems best year, 2006, they had 3+ turnout advantage. They are not going to get 7+ or 8+, that's for sure.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus