Posted on 10/22/2008 4:46:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Facing seemingly limited options for getting to an Electoral College majority, John McCain’s path to victory likely runs through Pennsylvania, a state that no Republican presidential candidate has won in two decades, a state in which he trails in the polls by a wide margin and a state where in the past year more than a half-million new Democrats have been added to the voter registration rolls.
It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.
“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”
“I don’t believe there’s a double-digit lead,” said Jon Delano, a western Pennsylvania-based political analyst who also serves as an adjunct professor of Public Policy and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University. “The history of the presidential elections here is different.”
Even top Democrats concede that McCain’s deficit in the polls — 11 percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average — isn’t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell had sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania.
“The polls don’t necessarily reflect what will happen on Election Day,” said T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party chairman. “We’re not a state that’s accustomed to huge blowouts.”
Indeed, John F. Kerry carried Pennsylvania in 2004 by just 144,000 votes out of nearly 6 million votes cast. His win was powered, to a large degree, by an enormous 412,000-vote margin out of Philadelphia.
The McCain campaign's formula for winning the state begins with the notion that, despite voter registration gains and strong support for Obama in Philadelphia, it would be difficult to wring more votes out of the state’s largest city than the Kerry campaign did.
They even believe they can carry a few of the heavily Democratic city’s 66 wards, a feat George W. Bush was unable to accomplish in 2004.
“We’re not convinced they can blow it out again,” said a McCain campaign source.
And in the four populous and historically Republican collar counties surrounding Philadelphia, the campaign believes McCain is a far better fit for the socially moderate suburbs than President Bush.
“McCain is more like a [Tom] Ridge than a Bush,” said the McCain campaign insider, referring to the popular former two-term GOP governor. “That gives suburban voters a comfort level with him. He’s a different kind of Republican in so many ways.”
Yet Republican hopes aren’t predicated on a southeastern Pennsylvania-based strategy since McCain is unlikely to run dramatically better than Bush in that vote-rich region.
Rather, the GOP path to victory runs through the socially conservative parts of the state outside the Philadelphia metropolitan region, and bears a strong resemblance to Hillary Clinton’s winning Democratic primary map.
“How do you flip 140,000 votes? You start by cutting in places like Lackawanna and Luzerne counties,” said the McCain campaign source, referring to Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, the traditionally conservative Democratic population hubs of northeastern Pennsylvania.
McCain also must run well in Lancaster and York counties in central Pennsylvania, two Republican strongholds that have received attention from both the Arizona senator and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. McCain also needs to boost his margins in the state’s Republican “T”, a region which begins at the Maryland state line and runs north through the center of the state before expanding to include the northern tier of counties that border New York.
“Winning Philadelphia is not enough for a done deal,” said Delano. “Whether it’s Scranton, Erie, Altoona, Johnstown or the Pittsburgh area, this is a big state. What McCain is counting on is that a lot of Democrats who voted once against Barack Obama in the primary will vote against him again.”
Western Pennsylvania, many pols believe, seems to hold the most promise for the McCain campaign. McCain expects to run better than Bush in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County—which Kerry carried by 97,000 votes in 2004—and in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Obama lost to Clinton by landslide margins.
“Democrats who do well in areas like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre and Pittsburgh are pro-life, pro-gun Democrats like Bob Casey. The Democrats who seem to do poorly in those areas tend to be pro-choice and questionable on guns,” said Brabender. “I think people are going to be shocked by how well McCain is going to do on the western side and in the center part of the state.”
While Democrats acknowledge western Pennsylvania is highly competitive, they remain confident that Obama will carry the state in the end.
“Pennsylvania will be won or lost for Barack Obama in the Philly suburbs,” said state Rep. Josh Shapiro of suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County, the third-largest county in the state after Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. “I anticipate the race will be close and in single digits but I also anticipate that Barack Obama will prevail.”
Rooney, the state Democratic chairman, framed it another way.
“It’s going to get closer,” he said. “But at the end of the day, I would much rather be on the side of the lead I think we have than on the other side of it.”
On FOX this morning, they said that someone had leaked the Obama camp’s internal polling which showed them ahead by only 2 points. Also, fast Eddie has asked Obama to come back to campaign. That doesn’t show a lot of confidence on their part.
Or it’s major psych-ops.
He can win but it would be pretty hard.
Mac would need to take the following to win: OH, FL, NC, MO, ND, Nevada. That by itself would be a task in itself (that makes it 265), but then he'd also need to add one more to get him over the top and so he's have to also add CO or PA.
Its hard to read the polls here in CO but people seem to think he's behind?
I know he's been fairly popular in NH, but with only 4 electoral votes he'd have a tie at 279?
That is if my math is adding up?
Either way its going to be one tough task, but I honestly feel he's allot closer than the media and pollsters are letting on and think he just might make it happen. My wife and I are doing what we can to help out here in CO, making phone calls and helping the cause.
I meant to add that VA is in my assessment for McCain.
That's why McCain-Palin is targeting Maine. They split their electoral votes - 2 for statewide winner, 1 for each of their two congressional districts. If McCain wins one of the CD's, he gets that one elector.
Imagine. It could come down to a few hundred moose hunters in Northern Maine.....
Get those billboards up their with Sarah bagging a big one! That would be a stunning way to win if he can't get into the CO or PA race!
Maine instituted this process in response to Bush/Gore 2000. Wouldn't it be sweet if THAT elected McCain?
Thanks!
Here’s how I break it down for McCain’s path to victory:
1) McCain has 163 electoral votes virtually in the bag. This includes 21 states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texax (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).
2) This means McCain needs to somehow deliver 107 more electoral votes. In my opinion, McCain can win 111 votes by winning only states Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. This would include winning the following states: Ohio (20), Florida (27), Colorado (9), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Indiana (11), and North Carolina (15). This is still very achievable, although I only have 100% confidence in Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina. `
3) My analysis assumes that Iowa and New Mexico are gone and that McCain won’t win a single Kerry state. His top targets that remain would be Pennsylvania and New Hampshire is a long shot at best. Winning Pennsylvania would be huge for McCain, but I can’t get past the belief that is it a lost cause. I think this talk of internal polls showing a 2 point Obama lead and Rendell asking him to come to the state is a set up. McCain should abandon Pennsylvania and focus on Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada, places where Republicans have had better success in recent elections.
Yet another article about McCain having a shot in PA. Makes me think there is indeed something going on here. Rendell and Murtha’s comments sure sound like they are nervous about the state. Would be wild if McCain took it, though unfortunately even that does not guarantee him the election if he loses VA, CO and even NC.
Tell me about Delaware, Bucks, and Montgomery andour expectations there. What about Erie and Pittsburgh?
In the case of Pennsylvania, I think McCain is toast and should cease any spending there. I think Bush proved this in 2004. He seemed obsessed at times in trying to win Pennsylvania and even with the greatest Republican turnout EVER in the state’s history, Bush still lost by 145,000 votes. In my opinion, the only thing that mattered in 2004 in Pennsylvania was how Philadelphia and its suburbs voted. Philadelphia county alone gave John Kerry a 412,000 vote lead in 2004. He carried the county with 81% of the vote. Philadelphia also has 7 ring counties with over 100,000 voters in each county. Kerry won these collective counties (Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, Lehigh, Berks, Chester, and Northampton) by a margin of 81,435 votes, giving him nearly a half million vote lead just from winning Philadelphia and its suburbs. Throw in Allegheny county, home of Pittsburgh, and its margin of 96,987 votes for Kerry and not even record Republican turnout in places like Lancaster and York counties could make enough of a dent for Bush to win.
With Democratic registrations way up and the bloodbath that was 2006, when Santorum and about 5 Republican congressman lost their seats, I don’t see much reason to be optimistic. Pennsylvania is fool’s gold to me. Maybe the idea is to make your opponent spend time and money in a particular state but all Obama really has to do is hold a massive rally in Philly with Bill Clinton two weeks before the election and Pennsylvania will be safely in his pocket. That’s pretty much all John Kerry did to win the state in 2004. The only thing that could be giving the McCain camp hope is Obama’s poor showing in the primary, but the sheer numbers in favor of the Democrats are too much to overcome.
*** Philly Metro/Delaware Valley Ping *****
Pittsburgh region is clearly is not supporting Fauxbama, I’m sure he’ll win the city proper, but the rest of the region, wouldn’t hold my breath. Eastern PA, from what I hear from folks there, the support is equally as lackluster for the chosen one. Erie as well, the city will probably go for Faux, but the region won’t.
ping
How about the bitter clinger comments? Are they being played up? Seems like McCain or some 527 should do an ad with these negative comments in areas where it could do some good. Not only in PA either. Should play well in OH, VA, WV, IN and more.
Haven’t seen any 527’s on the air honestly, other than the NRA ads, only ads on TV I have seen are RNC and McCain. Though I don’t have cable so they may be active there.
The comments are on talk radio daily.
I’m not worried folks, McCain is taking PA.
HAHAHAHA Let them keep believing that... Fauxbama will not take PA.. and he's got problems even in the PHilly Burbs from those I talk to out that way as well.
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