Tell me about Delaware, Bucks, and Montgomery andour expectations there. What about Erie and Pittsburgh?
In the case of Pennsylvania, I think McCain is toast and should cease any spending there. I think Bush proved this in 2004. He seemed obsessed at times in trying to win Pennsylvania and even with the greatest Republican turnout EVER in the state’s history, Bush still lost by 145,000 votes. In my opinion, the only thing that mattered in 2004 in Pennsylvania was how Philadelphia and its suburbs voted. Philadelphia county alone gave John Kerry a 412,000 vote lead in 2004. He carried the county with 81% of the vote. Philadelphia also has 7 ring counties with over 100,000 voters in each county. Kerry won these collective counties (Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, Lehigh, Berks, Chester, and Northampton) by a margin of 81,435 votes, giving him nearly a half million vote lead just from winning Philadelphia and its suburbs. Throw in Allegheny county, home of Pittsburgh, and its margin of 96,987 votes for Kerry and not even record Republican turnout in places like Lancaster and York counties could make enough of a dent for Bush to win.
With Democratic registrations way up and the bloodbath that was 2006, when Santorum and about 5 Republican congressman lost their seats, I don’t see much reason to be optimistic. Pennsylvania is fool’s gold to me. Maybe the idea is to make your opponent spend time and money in a particular state but all Obama really has to do is hold a massive rally in Philly with Bill Clinton two weeks before the election and Pennsylvania will be safely in his pocket. That’s pretty much all John Kerry did to win the state in 2004. The only thing that could be giving the McCain camp hope is Obama’s poor showing in the primary, but the sheer numbers in favor of the Democrats are too much to overcome.
Pittsburgh region is clearly is not supporting Fauxbama, I’m sure he’ll win the city proper, but the rest of the region, wouldn’t hold my breath. Eastern PA, from what I hear from folks there, the support is equally as lackluster for the chosen one. Erie as well, the city will probably go for Faux, but the region won’t.
We’re in Upper Dublin Township, Montgomery County. I’m seeing more and more McCain signs. They seem more numerous than what we saw for Bush in 2004, and that the Obama signs are fewer than we saw for Gore, Kerry or Hillary. In addition to McCain/Palin signs, there are a great many signs for Todd Stephens, which indicates local Republican support. I think some folks just don’t want to put out McCain signs because they are concerned about vandalism. There are a lot of American flags flying. I suspect some of these are conservative voters who are keeping a low profile. I’ve never seen an Obama sign in front of a home flying the flag. I don’t believe Obama is ahead by double digits in PA.