He can win but it would be pretty hard.
Mac would need to take the following to win: OH, FL, NC, MO, ND, Nevada. That by itself would be a task in itself (that makes it 265), but then he'd also need to add one more to get him over the top and so he's have to also add CO or PA.
Its hard to read the polls here in CO but people seem to think he's behind?
I know he's been fairly popular in NH, but with only 4 electoral votes he'd have a tie at 279?
That is if my math is adding up?
Either way its going to be one tough task, but I honestly feel he's allot closer than the media and pollsters are letting on and think he just might make it happen. My wife and I are doing what we can to help out here in CO, making phone calls and helping the cause.
I meant to add that VA is in my assessment for McCain.
That's why McCain-Palin is targeting Maine. They split their electoral votes - 2 for statewide winner, 1 for each of their two congressional districts. If McCain wins one of the CD's, he gets that one elector.
Imagine. It could come down to a few hundred moose hunters in Northern Maine.....
Here’s how I break it down for McCain’s path to victory:
1) McCain has 163 electoral votes virtually in the bag. This includes 21 states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texax (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).
2) This means McCain needs to somehow deliver 107 more electoral votes. In my opinion, McCain can win 111 votes by winning only states Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. This would include winning the following states: Ohio (20), Florida (27), Colorado (9), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Indiana (11), and North Carolina (15). This is still very achievable, although I only have 100% confidence in Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina. `
3) My analysis assumes that Iowa and New Mexico are gone and that McCain won’t win a single Kerry state. His top targets that remain would be Pennsylvania and New Hampshire is a long shot at best. Winning Pennsylvania would be huge for McCain, but I can’t get past the belief that is it a lost cause. I think this talk of internal polls showing a 2 point Obama lead and Rendell asking him to come to the state is a set up. McCain should abandon Pennsylvania and focus on Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada, places where Republicans have had better success in recent elections.